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MASN: What will keep fans invested in 2020?


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#1 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 01 January 2020 - 04:12 PM

MASN: What will keep fans invested in 2020?
https://www.masnspor...ed-in-2020.html



#2 BSLNickStevens

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Posted 01 January 2020 - 04:40 PM

Prospects, prospects, and more prospects. 


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#3 weird-O

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Posted 02 January 2020 - 08:22 AM

I'm getting the impression that any prospect who hasn't had his ML service time clock activated, isn't going to be brought up in 2020. I'm thinking of Mountcastle. I understand the reasoning, you want to maximize the team's control, and minimize the number of years they'd play on lousy O's teams. Other than that, I don't know what else there is to look forward to. 


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#4 Mackus

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Posted 02 January 2020 - 08:52 AM

I don't think they can justify keeping Mountcastle down all year unless he struggles.  He did everything asked last year.  It was pretty obviously just service time manipulation that kept him down last season.  They'll say more nonsense about his defense to begin the year and will get away with it.  But they can't do that all year long without it becoming incredibly obvious to the point of bordering on an actionable grievance.  

 

I think he stays down until early May.  Enough days past the 20 days at Norfolk he needs to avoid reaching a full year of service to make it not completely 100% provably obvious that they left him down for solely that purpose (the Bryant grievance against the Cubs may influence this further depending on the result) but not too long afterwards.

 

Akin is in a similar boat.  A bit more leeway with him since the stats weren't great like Mountcastle's.  But he'll be up at some point this year.  I think they push into June or July with him.



#5 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 02 January 2020 - 09:05 AM

Right now, I expect Akin to be in the Opening Day rotation. 
Even if not, I'll be shocked if he hasn't had a ML start prior to June. 



#6 Mackus

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Posted 02 January 2020 - 09:16 AM

You expect him to be in Opening Day rotation?  That seems bizarre to me.  I think he's earned it, and I think it's totally reasonable to say you would have him on your opening day roster.  But every indication the team has given seems to make it clear that they will absolutely game the system to maintain long-term control of their assets.  For example, I don't think it's a coincidence that Santander got called up at a point in time that left him 10 days short of reaching 2 full years of service.  

 

You buy all of 2026 by keeping him down for the first 3 weeks of 2020.  I would be absolutely shocked if Elias doesn't make that swap.

 

Whether they try to play with a potential Super-2 date is more debatable.  I wouldn't be shocked to see him up by the end of April.  But Opening Day, or any time before he's reached the 20 days he has to spend optioned, would be absolutely stunning.



#7 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 02 January 2020 - 09:25 AM

You expect him to be in Opening Day rotation?  That seems bizarre to me.  I think he's earned it, and I think it's totally reasonable to say you would have him on your opening day roster.  But every indication the team has given seems to make it clear that they will absolutely game the system to maintain long-term control of their assets.  For example, I don't think it's a coincidence that Santander got called up at a point in time that left him 10 days short of reaching 2 full years of service.  

 

You buy all of 2026 by keeping him down for the first 3 weeks of 2020.  I would be absolutely shocked if Elias doesn't make that swap.


Yeah, I don't believe that is how they are going to operate as time goes on. 

2019 was a starting point. Obviously in 2020 we're not much further along, so what they did with Santander will continue. 

Someone like Mountcastle... sure, they'll get the extra year of control. 

Rodriguez, Hall... they'll focus on their development, and not rush them up when the team can't contend. 

Akin? Had a full year of AAA.  He's a back of the rotation guy, whose ceiling is only so high. 
I expect him to be up early. It's possible the O's do make a move that pushes him back some... or maybe they only go with 4 starters to begin.. but right now do expect him to come North when camp breaks, and if not... fully expect he's up by May when need arises. 

If you wind-up liking him enough, and he's exceeding your own internal expectations... it's not so hard to buy out his arb years, and extend him a year or two early on. 



#8 BSLSteveBirrer

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Posted 02 January 2020 - 10:47 AM

But what value would there be in having Akin on the roster before his extra service time would kick in? 

 

The O's are going to suck with or without him in 2020 so what downside is there to holding him out till May/



#9 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 02 January 2020 - 10:50 AM

But what value would there be in having Akin on the roster before his extra service time would kick in? 

 

The O's are going to suck with or without him in 2020 so what downside is there to holding him out till May/

 

Value? None. 

I don't think he's good enough to that you need to worry about his control... but if you do, sure... hold him back a few weeks.

Either way, would be shocking to me if he wasn't up prior to June / July.



#10 Mike B

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Posted 02 January 2020 - 11:35 AM

I will watch because I have for over 50 years.  I just see no reason to be excited over the 2020 season.  I probably watched less than 15 games for all 9 innings, last year and expect this year will be similar.  

Other than maybe Mountcastle, I do not think anyone, we call up this years, will be someone, that we have to worry the the service time over.

I am interested in seeing Mountcastle and maybe Kremer, but not much else.


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#11 BSLSteveBirrer

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Posted 02 January 2020 - 01:54 PM

Bottom line with Akin. You'd look pretty stupid down the road if you lost the year because he was on the 2020 opening day roster. Sure he doesn't appear at this point to be one you'd worry about. But why risk it!



#12 Mike B

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Posted 02 January 2020 - 01:57 PM

Bottom line with Akin. You'd look pretty stupid down the road if you lost the year because he was on the 2020 opening day roster. Sure he doesn't appear at this point to be one you'd worry about. But why risk it!

Yea, I see that, but we need to field a team, such as it is.


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#13 NewMarketSean

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Posted 02 January 2020 - 03:09 PM

The MASN commercials.


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#14 Mike B

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Posted 02 January 2020 - 03:19 PM

The MASN commercials.

Got to love those defining moments.


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#15 BSLRobShields

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Posted 02 January 2020 - 03:23 PM

I agree with Chris that I don’t care about Akin’s service time.

I wouldn’t care if they tried to buy an extra year but keeping him down a few weeks but I don’t think it’s a big deal if they don’t.
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#16 dude

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Posted 02 January 2020 - 04:28 PM

Are the Orioles even trying to keep fans invested?

 

It seems like they are doing the opposite of trying to keep fans invested.

 

The Orioles reached a new low for OPaCY attendance and I think it's expected to be a new low this year. 

 

MASN recorded a new low in viewership although (I think the last report we saw) actually have the Orioles up a couple % from the 50% drop-off in 2018.  Apparently the Nationals viewership was more responsible for the new low (off another 8-9%?) 

 

The Orioles have traded off the better and more recognizable names names from 2019, with 2 more likely trade defections soon enough.  

 

They have shown zero interest in investing in the on-field product and could wind up below 50M in active salary while a similarly resourced Organization, the Nationals, are (will be) in the 200M range.

 

They cancelled FanFest and replaced it, in part, with a small, modestly framed event that drew hundreds.

 

Marketing so far has delivered "Be Part of it All",

-------------------

 

If you don't care about the product, OPaCY is always a good place to watch a baseball game. 

Parking won't be much of an issue and you'll have plenty of room around you since there's probably only a handful of people in your section.

 

Not sure Hays draws that much interest. Or that people care that much about Mountcastle, Diaz, Akin or Kremer making their debuts.  Nothing wrong with any of those guys, I like them, but not sure why they'd generate meaningful attendance numbers.  Are the Santander jersey's blowing off the shelf?

 

Melweski mentions (as some form of a draw)...

 

1) The next means Means...

 

2) Mountcastle arrives, Rutschman gets closer

 

3) the 1-2 pick in June 

 

as reasons to invest.

 

I'm not sure where that causes investment of the fan-base. 

 

I'll certainly be paying attention to who they draft and we'll see what they do on the International front (sort of suprised that wasn't included as if there was meaning there).

 

There's a couple of levels that will have some interesting players so I don't know that MiL attendance takes much of a hit, there's guys to watch and I'd expect a number of the MiL teams to do well this year....but that's local investment in that community, not some macro-Oriole investment.

 

Is anyone going to games hoping to watch a modernly considered player(s) have an unexpected good game?

----------

 

If these guys enjoy playing together, great, but do we have any pieces of some future core?

 

Does a lineup with Santander, Hays, Diaz and Mountcastle strike you as a group that will "be worth it" in any year?






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