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Balt Sun: The Orioles spent a year building their analytics department. Now they’re putting those tools to use.


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#21 DJ MC

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Posted 23 December 2019 - 03:46 PM

I get you are content with just throwing seasons away.  I am not the youngest guy anymore.  I have no stomach for not even trying to field a team and being okay with losing 110-115 games, for the third year in a row.

We will have to agree to disagree.

 

You don't have to agree with it to understand what they are doing.


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#22 BSLRobShields

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Posted 23 December 2019 - 03:48 PM

You don't have to agree with it to understand what they are doing.


If only everyone understood things as well as you do.
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#23 Mike B

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Posted 23 December 2019 - 07:28 PM

You don't have to agree with it to understand what they are doing.

I get what they are trying to do.  Sorry, I am never going to be on board, with just deciding to tank a season.

And that is exactly what the team is doing, in that they are sending minor league players out to compete against true major league players.


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#24 dude

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Posted 23 December 2019 - 08:18 PM

Houston whiffed on a few top picks for sure, but still drafted Springer, Correa, Bregman, and McCullers in the first round of their drafts. Not bad. All helped them to multiple playoff appearances and a World Championship.

 

You don't even understand your own argument.

 

Springer was a pre-rebuilding pick (1-11) in 2011 where you say you don't want to be ('in the middle').  McCullers was the #41 pick in the 2012 draft.....everyone has a #41 (+/-) pick.

 

...but the larger developmental question should be....where are the rest of the players that weren't 1-1 picks?  Why aren't they promoting and winning with internally drafted and developed players? Where's the 'elite talent pipeline'?

 

What you still can't link is causality.  The Astros run from 2017 -2019 isn't because they lost from 2011-2013.

 

1) they developed almost no pitching and 

2) we're about to find out their offense was a lot about cheating

 

I'm not saying the Orioles can't be successful with this group or the work doesn't matter. 

What I am saying is if you get there, it will have nothing to do with throwing away 2 or 3 seasons.



#25 dude

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Posted 23 December 2019 - 08:27 PM

But how did they miss out on not hiring dude?

 

I think it's funny you guys try to do this.

 

I'm not a full stack developer.

 

They probably don't even understand the job they'd want me to do or Elias thinks he's doing it.

 

Fun note: we got approval last week to start a 'metrics' project which will be the first of it's kind in an industry bigger (and more consequential in many ways) than baseball.



#26 bmore_ken

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Posted 24 December 2019 - 07:29 PM

I think it's funny you guys try to do this.

 

I'm not a full stack developer.

 

They probably don't even understand the job they'd want me to do or Elias thinks he's doing it.

 

Fun note: we got approval last week to start a 'metrics' project which will be the first of it's kind in an industry bigger (and more consequential in many ways) than baseball.

Bro you could do the rebuild in a year. The team clearly missed out on your GM skills  :mrgreen:



#27 dude

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Posted 24 December 2019 - 08:12 PM

Bro you could do the rebuild in a year. The team clearly missed out on your GM skills  :mrgreen:

 

I don't believe in rebuilds.  Rebuilds are for cowards.  Have a plan to compete now and compete later.

 

Sometimes you may get to a point where you need to take a breathe and reset for a year, but you should be right back on it.

 

Of course, we may find out this has nothing to do with rebuilding and it's serving a very different purpose.

 

No gifts for Orioles fans, but Merry Christmas to everyone regardless.



#28 BSLSteveBirrer

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Posted 25 December 2019 - 08:43 AM

I don't believe in rebuilds.  Rebuilds are for cowards.  Have a plan to compete now and compete later.

 

Sometimes you may get to a point where you need to take a breathe and reset for a year, but you should be right back on it.

 

Of course, we may find out this has nothing to do with rebuilding and it's serving a very different purpose.

 

No gifts for Orioles fans, but Merry Christmas to everyone regardless.

 

Is there a single team in MLB that follows something close to your plan?

 

If there is that team or teams are they doing so without spending north of $180M/year?

 

This is not meant as a poke but an honest question. Just wondering who out there is doing something akin to what you suggest?



#29 Slidemaster

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Posted 25 December 2019 - 09:41 AM

Is there a single team in MLB that follows something close to your plan?

If there is that team or teams are they doing so without spending north of $180M/year?

This is not meant as a poke but an honest question. Just wondering who out there is doing something akin to what you suggest?


What he's suggesting is possible when you have a mammoth payroll and an already established core.

The Orioles have neither.

#30 bmore_ken

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Posted 25 December 2019 - 12:36 PM

What he's suggesting is possible when you have a mammoth payroll and an already established core.

The Orioles have neither.

Don't forget you also have to have the magical power to convince other GMs to give you prime players for your trash



#31 dude

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Posted 25 December 2019 - 02:41 PM

Is there a single team in MLB that follows something close to your plan?

 

If there is that team or teams are they doing so without spending north of $180M/year?

 

This is not meant as a poke but an honest question. Just wondering who out there is doing something akin to what you suggest?

 

The Cardinals.

 

I have long said the Orioles should be the Cardinals of the AL.  They are the model for the approach.

 

...and they're both birds, so there's that.

 

The mistake that everyone makes about rebuilding is they try and associate it with "winning in the future", but that's just the marketing of losing...and I as I keep saying, there's nothing the Orioles are doing that the Dodgers (or basically every team) aren't doing every single year.

 

What rebuilding does accomplish is a break from the expectations of winning.  It makes losing OK,even valued (see: Orioles).

 

It's not that you can't leverage the opportunity of not competing to get better, you can, it's just not why you ever win.

It's not why the Astros or Cubs won although lots of people like to believe it was.

 

The Baseball community (media, pundits, fans) has become enamored with the tag line cliches and ignorant masses just follow.



#32 BSLRobShields

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Posted 25 December 2019 - 03:13 PM

Big difference between the Os and Cards...competent ownership
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#33 dude

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Posted 25 December 2019 - 03:34 PM

The Cardinals.

 

I have long said the Orioles should be the Cardinals of the AL.  They are the model for the approach.

 

Since 1999 (2000+)

 

The Cardinals in those 20 years have...

- 1 losing season (78 win in 2007 which is an interesting anecdote)

- made the playoffs 13 times

- made the WS 4 times

- won the WS twice 

- drawn less than 3.0M fans once (2.91M in 2003)

 

They leverage their strong baseball history and fanbase to bring in the guys they want (long history of trading for a guy in their last year then extending them) and blending FA, trades and development into the on-field product. They've made lots of mistakes (contracts, etc) but don't let that derail the end goal of each season and they, like the Orioles, are one of the 14 Competitive Balance pick teams.



#34 BSLSteveBirrer

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Posted 25 December 2019 - 05:34 PM

Ok I think the Cardinals are a well run organization. But there is a huge difference between the NL Central and the AL East.

 

Since the 2000 season here is how the Cardinals team payroll has ranked compared to the rest of their division.

 

Highest payroll -  8 years

 

Second highest payroll - 11 years

 

Third highest payroll - Once

 

Fourth highest payroll - Never

 

Lowest payroll - Never

 

So they may well be extremely well run. But they spend in the top two payrolls of their division every year. The O's do not have the financial ability to do that in the AL East. So perhaps the O's could take a page from what the Cards do but to overlook the payrolls is disingenuous. As I have stated many times. You want to make the playoffs on an ongoing basis? Then you need to have a payroll in the top two of your respective division.


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#35 dude

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Posted 25 December 2019 - 07:30 PM

So they may well be extremely well run. But they spend in the top two payrolls of their division every year. The O's do not have the financial ability to do that in the AL East. So perhaps the O's could take a page from what the Cards do but to overlook the payrolls is disingenuous. As I have stated many times. You want to make the playoffs on an ongoing basis? Then you need to have a payroll in the top two of your respective division.

 

Your payroll analysis has already been debunked, but don't let that stop you.

 

Payroll isn't why you win the Division.  I know that will cause you to change your core opinions and that's not going to happen, so we can keep doing it.  Evidence isn't on your side.

 

However, I'm actually OK with being #3/4 in the Division.  It creates more justification for what I think is the more relevant approach to winning.It gives you an underdog angle, even if you aren't the underdog.  Not worried about the T, more concerned about the L, A and C.

 

...but where I think there's merit to the point and I've already said this, is that you have 2 teams, the Red Sox and Yankees who aren't taking years off.  They will try.  They may fail but you have 4 teams in this Division that are some combination of well resourced and/or well run.

 

When Mike Elias says "it will be worth it" (and that's his tag line justification for "patience" and "it's a long process") then we should seek to understand what that actually looks like.  There's a lot of proponents of the rebuilding process that think it somehow makes you a lock for the playoffs....and if you looked around at other similar processes (other teams)....I think you would have a harder time justifying that  position and those teams aren't in the AL East.

 

It should be telling that no-one even shares what they think 'that' lineup looks like....and if you have no idea what it looks like...how do you decide if it will be worth it.  Elias discussed guys like Mason McCoy and Rylan Bannon the other day...ok with those guys....but we don't think they're part of the core....do we?

 

If you looked at it and said..."we can get there (that opportunity) today"...it would certainly undermine the grandiose perspective of rebuilding.



#36 BSLMikeRandall

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Posted 26 December 2019 - 10:52 AM

Since 1999 (2000+)

The Cardinals in those 20 years have...
- 1 losing season (78 win in 2007 which is an interesting anecdote)
- made the playoffs 13 times
- made the WS 4 times
- won the WS twice
- drawn less than 3.0M fans once (2.91M in 2003)

They leverage their strong baseball history and fanbase to bring in the guys they want (long history of trading for a guy in their last year then extending them) and blending FA, trades and development into the on-field product. They've made lots of mistakes (contracts, etc) but don't let that derail the end goal of each season and they, like the Orioles, are one of the 14 Competitive Balance pick teams.


The Orioles cannot in any sense leverage a “strong baseball history”, if you think the Cardinals are doing this, and if you think players care about it.

STL has like 10+ titles and 10+ retired numbers. BAL has the great Earl Weaver era and the players in it, and Cal Ripken. That’s it.
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#37 dude

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Posted 26 December 2019 - 04:13 PM

The Orioles cannot in any sense leverage a “strong baseball history”, if you think the Cardinals are doing this, and if you think players care about it.

STL has like 10+ titles and 10+ retired numbers. BAL has the great Earl Weaver era and the players in it, and Cal Ripken. That’s it.

 

Wow, I don't agree with that at all. 

 

The Orioles have a tremendous MLB history, they have a core 5 including Frank, Brooks, Eddie and Palmer beyond the icon that is Cal.  Players really like their time here, when you look at guys like Surhoff and Bordick (and others).  They have the baseline for measuring all stadiums, a forgiving media and a (well, could have a) passionate fan-base.

 

The fact is the Orioles have no idea how to leverage their real advantages.



#38 Slidemaster

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Posted 26 December 2019 - 04:49 PM

Wow, I don't agree with that at all.

The Orioles have a tremendous MLB history, they have a core 5 including Frank, Brooks, Eddie and Palmer beyond the icon that is Cal. Players really like their time here, when you look at guys like Surhoff and Bordick (and others). They have the baseline for measuring all stadiums, a forgiving media and a (well, could have a) passionate fan-base.

The fact is the Orioles have no idea how to leverage their real advantages.

Nobody is/was lining up to play in Baltimore, be it now, or when they were good a few years ago. This is not a destination players aim to come to.

#39 BSLMikeRandall

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Posted 26 December 2019 - 07:48 PM

Wow, I don't agree with that at all.

The Orioles have a tremendous MLB history, they have a core 5 including Frank, Brooks, Eddie and Palmer beyond the icon that is Cal. Players really like their time here, when you look at guys like Surhoff and Bordick (and others). They have the baseline for measuring all stadiums, a forgiving media and a (well, could have a) passionate fan-base.

The fact is the Orioles have no idea how to leverage their real advantages.


Like I said. The Earl Weaver era and the players in it. And Cal. That’s it.

Just because Surhoff and Bordick like it here has no bearing on other guys choosing this as a destination.

None of the other things have any bearing either. Busch Stadium is a very very nice ball park. Their city also didn’t build a prison looking hotel in the backdrop to block the Arch from the skyline.
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#40 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 26 December 2019 - 07:55 PM

Wow, I don't agree with that at all. 

 

The Orioles have a tremendous MLB history, they have a core 5 including Frank, Brooks, Eddie and Palmer beyond the icon that is Cal.  Players really like their time here, when you look at guys like Surhoff and Bordick (and others).  They have the baseline for measuring all stadiums, a forgiving media and a (well, could have a) passionate fan-base.

 

The fact is the Orioles have no idea how to leverage their real advantages.


The average age of a MLB player is something like 29 (at-least it was in 2015 & 16). 
 

The average MLB player has no knowledge of the Orioles history, and if you figure their concrete memories start at age 10 or so.... the current players are remembering the O's from '99 on. 

Nobody is joining the Orioles today due to the O's history. 

 

Once they are here, you can do what Buck did... and make sure they have awareness of the history.






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