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fwiw, my #1 plan is still available...


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#21 dude

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Posted 23 December 2019 - 09:19 PM

....., is going to have to have a core made up of young cost controlled guys.

 

So that probably starts with sucking to get some high draft picks for the simple reason that we don't have ANY players that can be traded for top prospects.

 

So the best shot at getting a good core is going to be through the draft (and international signings perhaps).

 

Great.  The Orioles had the most wins in the AL from 2012 to 2016 and didn't have that, but let's ignore that for a moment.

 

Nobody is pushing back on development of a younger, cost controlled core....but you (and others, I guess) seem to believe the only thing that can develop that core is a 1-1 pick.

 

Development of that core HAS to be more than 1-1 picks, right?  

 

If you want to believe what Elias is saying (both frequently and recently) is that they have special insight (look at the last paragraph of the Givens-Mancini article) and they aren't really guessing about which guys will succeed, they know.  It's why Mike says "it will be worth it", right?  Becasue they have developed a special knowledge that far exceeds anything any other team can deliver on.

 

Follow the logic challenge here.

 

If the Orioles have special knowledge now and will hit on a much larger % of their draftees and they know which ones to get from other organizations....then we are so far beyond needing the value of a 1-1 pick it's not even fair.  We're going to hit on a LOT of guys.  We are pimping the special insight of the guys we got from the 2019 draft from the 4th, 8th and 14th round.  We already drafted 13 largely 'better' guys from the last draft after Adley.

 

You aren't going to develop your core with just 1-1 picks.  You have to win everywhere else too.

 

If you are going to win everywhere else, you can swamp the relevance of 1-1 picks.

 

So you either don't need the 1-1 picks or you don't have the confidence in what you say you are doing everywhere else. 

Pick.



#22 BSLSteveBirrer

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Posted 23 December 2019 - 10:05 PM

The O's had the most wins during a RARE period when both the Yankees and Red Sox were way down.

 

The O's didn't win shit during that period.

 

As to the rest of your stuff not sure I am following. I can't be any more clear than I have been. I have zero issues with the O's tanking for a couple of years. Doesn't make me right and others wrong. But I don't have an issue IF down the road when they think they have the makings of a competitive team that they get back to the $150M kind of payroll.



#23 Mackus

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Posted 23 December 2019 - 10:07 PM

I don't think Elias and co actually think they have some massive insight over everybody else in terms of scouting. Nor do I think they've stated such.

I'm with you that the value of the #1 overall pick is massively, laughably, dangerously overstated but I think you're using a false equivalency here.

#24 dude

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Posted 23 December 2019 - 10:20 PM

I don't think Elias and co actually think they have some massive insight over everybody else in terms of scouting. Nor do I think they've stated such.

 

Go read the last paragraph of the Mancini-Givens article in the Sun.  I'll let you (or anyone else) bring the quote here.



#25 Mackus

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Posted 23 December 2019 - 10:25 PM

I've used up my Sun views so can't read it.

Whatever he said, I sincerely doubt that he's trying to convince intelligent listeners that he's uncovered some secret truth that nobody else knows about and we are gonna hit twice as often as everybody else. And I'm certain that whatever his plan actually is in his head, it doesn't involve relying on that level of drafting and scouting success.

#26 dude

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Posted 23 December 2019 - 10:48 PM

 

Elias said last week that it’s all being done with a purpose, thanks to the data available from systems such as TrackMan and the team’s interpretation of what that all means.

 

“It does give us a little more of a precise idea of what we’re dealing with with a pitcher’s stuff, and whether it sort of fits the model that we’re looking for,” Elias said. “The guys that we’re bringing in, the guys from the Angels, we have a really specific idea of what their stuff looks like and how we think it’s going to play. I don’t know that we need to feel like we’re just throwing as many bodies against the wall as we did five, six years ago.

 

He's adding guys from the 4th (2018) and 4th, 8th and 14th (2019) rounds and believes they know something that doesn't just make this a numbers game.

 

Keep in mind, they are marketing their comments of these guys in the trades as answers.

 

If you believe that to be true EVERY guy they select in the draft (or trade or IFA) will have the upside of that knowledge. 

They are telling you they aren't guessing.



#27 dude

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Posted 23 December 2019 - 10:53 PM

The O's didn't win shit during that period.

 

Just so we're clear, if you don't win a Championship the other wins don't matter?

 

...because Justin Verlander was the reasons the Astros won in 2017 and the reason they got Verlander was a hurricane.



#28 McNulty

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Posted 23 December 2019 - 11:05 PM

I've used up my Sun views so can't read it.

Whatever he said, I sincerely doubt that he's trying to convince intelligent listeners that he's uncovered some secret truth that nobody else knows about and we are gonna hit twice as often as everybody else. And I'm certain that whatever his plan actually is in his head, it doesn't involve relying on that level of drafting and scouting success.


https://youtu.be/p4eAFywEtgQ

How to block java script so you can view as many articles as you want. I use for the times and post too.

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#29 Mackus

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Posted 23 December 2019 - 11:07 PM

So that statement seems significantly less dramatic to me than you seem to think it was and it's hedged with tons of qualifiers. "Little more", "sort of fits", "how we think"... I make it a point to not magnify and imply meaning into every word a GM says in an interview, I don't think any of them are that careful. But Elias pretty clearly to me is not saying that they think they know something everyone else doesn't.

#30 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 23 December 2019 - 11:21 PM

So that statement seems significantly less dramatic to me than you seem to think it was and it's hedged with tons of qualifiers. "Little more", "sort of fits", "how we think"... I make it a point to not magnify and imply meaning into every word a GM says in an interview, I don't think any of them are that careful. But Elias pretty clearly to me is not saying that they think they know something everyone else doesn't.


A huge part of Astroball is Elias and others saying they don't think they are smarter than others or have unique knowledge.
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#31 BSLMikeRandall

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Posted 23 December 2019 - 11:32 PM






He's adding guys from the 4th (2018) and 4th, 8th and 14th (2019) rounds and believes they know something that doesn't just make this a numbers game.

Keep in mind, they are marketing their comments of these guys in the trades as answers.

If you believe that to be true EVERY guy they select in the draft (or trade or IFA) will have the upside of that knowledge.
They are telling you they aren't guessing.


Astroball made it well known the role players they find deeper in drafts going way back their days with the Cardinals. Guys like Joe Kelly for example. It is still not what wins a WS. It’s a piece of many pieces it takes.

And FWIW, every other team is using trackman and these things now. So the O’s adding dudes that other teams in win now mode can part with, is something that other teams will also be doing.

All of this puts them on par with the rest of baseball. Nothing more, nothing less.

Now, the next step is development. An area the Os have yet to prove themselves in.
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#32 Mackus

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Posted 23 December 2019 - 11:35 PM


...because Justin Verlander was the reasons the Astros won in 2017 and the reason they got Verlander was a hurricane.


No one player is quite that important in baseball. That's a big part of why the value of the #1 pick is massively overblown, but it also applies here. Justin Verlander isn't the reason they won the World Series. Maybe they don't win without trading for him, but there are probably a half dozen or more other guys they wouldn't have won it without also.

#33 BSLMikeRandall

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Posted 23 December 2019 - 11:39 PM

...because Justin Verlander was the reasons the Astros won in 2017 and the reason they got Verlander was a hurricane.


That is 100% not why they got Verlander.

They got Verlander because they were smart enough to take on his salary, knowing he comes at a price you can’t beat on the free agent market for a guy of similar pedigree. Can’t remember the exact numbers, but it was like signing an ace for 2 years at $40M. That contract doesn’t exist anywhere else on the market.
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#34 dude

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Posted 24 December 2019 - 01:12 AM

That is 100% not why they got Verlander.

They got Verlander because they were smart enough to take on his salary, knowing he comes at a price you can’t beat on the free agent market for a guy of similar pedigree. Can’t remember the exact numbers, but it was like signing an ace for 2 years at $40M. That contract doesn’t exist anywhere else on the market.

 

Verlander had a 4.96 in early July.  In June I had written a post about acquiring him and others (notably Steve) said he was done and not worth it.  His ERA was still 4.50 as later as 24 July.  He started ramping it up in August and then crushed September, but nobody thought he was that guy at that point.  uh, well, I guess I did back in June before he got hot.

 

The Tigers wanted more than they were willing to pay.

 

They didn't get him at the first deadline (where they can control a deal) and were willing to walk away.

 

The package wasn't really that big a deal but they didn't like it anyway.  They waited until they couldn't control the deal (if someone else had claimed him, he wouldn't even been an option) and then caved on what was still a modest deal minutes before mid-night.

 

The city of Houston was underwater and they needed to do something to create some hope.  You don't hold onto your 'analyses' while something like that is happening.  Disasters or other things often serve as a catalyst for championship runs.  Heck, I child's song was the catalyst for the Nationals' run this year.

 

There's always a series of pieces, but no hurricane, no Championship.



#35 BSLMikeRandall

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Posted 24 December 2019 - 09:17 AM


Verlander had a 4.96 in early July. In June I had written a post about acquiring him and others (notably Steve) said he was done and not worth it. His ERA was still 4.50 as later as 24 July. He started ramping it up in August and then crushed September, but nobody thought he was that guy at that point. uh, well, I guess I did back in June before he got hot.

The Tigers wanted more than they were willing to pay.

They didn't get him at the first deadline (where they can control a deal) and were willing to walk away.

The package wasn't really that big a deal but they didn't like it anyway. They waited until they couldn't control the deal (if someone else had claimed him, he wouldn't even been an option) and then caved on what was still a modest deal minutes before mid-night.

The city of Houston was underwater and they needed to do something to create some hope. You don't hold onto your 'analyses' while something like that is happening. Disasters or other things often serve as a catalyst for championship runs. Heck, I child's song was the catalyst for the Nationals' run this year.

There's always a series of pieces, but no hurricane, no Championship.


So is it the genius of the Astros FO which is here now? Or is it a hurricane? You have to pick one? Do we need to pray for a hurricane to ravage Baltimore this year?

Come on man.

Verlander had a no trade clause. Kuechel was one of the guys who called Verlander and explained to him how great a place Houston is and that he should waive his no trade for them.

Verlander waived it at the deadline and the Astros had a rep sitting outside his house with the paperwork ready to sign.

Hurricane had nothing to do with Verlander. Though, yes, those circumstances can bring a team and community closer together.
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#36 BSLRobShields

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Posted 24 December 2019 - 09:34 AM

And Houston didn’t trade nothing to get him.

Cameron, for example, was a well sought after guy.

He wasn’t one of their top prospects but that was more because of their depth. He would have been a top 10 and maybe top 5 guy in most organizations.

And that goes back to their depth and what the accumulated through trades, draft, etc...
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#37 bleedingorangeandblack

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Posted 24 December 2019 - 04:10 PM

Are we using a Playstation4?


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#38 dude

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Posted 24 December 2019 - 06:26 PM

Night Moves III



#39 BSLSteveBirrer

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Posted 25 December 2019 - 08:51 AM

Just so we're clear, if you don't win a Championship the other wins don't matter?

 

...because Justin Verlander was the reasons the Astros won in 2017 and the reason they got Verlander was a hurricane.

 

Of course all wins are good. But I will be crystal clear. I would much rather see a team go all in when they have a core like the O's did for several years then tank/back off/rebuild or whatever you want to call it than a team muddle in sort of being competitive but not really push their chips into the middle and not win it all. IMO the O's did not do that. They built a decent team but when they got there they didn't do what it takes to get over the top.

 

Yes I know the tired old mantra that anything can happen when you make the playoffs. Its overblown especially when you talk the second wild card nonsense.



#40 dude

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Posted 25 December 2019 - 03:00 PM

Yes I know the tired old mantra that anything can happen when you make the playoffs. Its overblown especially when you talk the second wild card nonsense.

 

Was the Wild Card overblown for the 1997 Marlins?...the 2002 Angels?...the 2003 Marlins?...the 2004 Red Sox?...the 2011 Cardinals?...the 2014 Giants?...or the 2019 Nationals?

 

....we have WC play (1994-2011 w/one, 2012-present w/two) for 25 years and the Wild Card teams have won 7 times.

 

Wild Card teams also made the WS (lost) in 2000, 2002, 2005, 2006, 2007 and 2014.

 

In 2002, 2007 and 2014 you had WC teams playing each other for the Championship.






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