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MASN: More from Saturday’s Winter Warm-Up


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#41 BSLRobShields

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Posted 17 December 2019 - 04:17 PM

Things we know:

Orioles ownership's insistence on being involved in every move has been a problem in the past (trades vetoed by owner, not approved in time, budget on a whim, etc)
Orioles have not included salary in order to increase trade return and better build up the farm system in recent trades ('18 deadline and more recently...they did include a small amount of cash with Cashner but not all of his remaining deal)
Elias has said that if an opportunity similar to the Cozart/Wilson trade was available, he'd have to run it by ownership
Elias has said that his key immediate term goal is to improve the talent at every level of the organization

Things we're assuming based on above facts:

That Elias would want to pursue a trade where you take on salary

And we did a deal with the Angels where adding those 2 players in would have been easy and it didn’t happen.
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#42 Mike B

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Posted 17 December 2019 - 05:43 PM

The assumption he makes is common sense combined with Elias saying he wants to do these types of moves but needs permission.

It may be common sense, but it doesn't mean Elias wanted to do this trade, and I still saying paying 12-15 million is a big ask.


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#43 Mike B

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Posted 17 December 2019 - 05:48 PM

Things we know:

 

Orioles ownership's insistence on being involved in every move has been a problem in the past (trades vetoed by owner, not approved in time, budget on a whim, etc)

Orioles have not included salary in order to increase trade return and better build up the farm system in recent trades ('18 deadline and more recently...they did include a small amount of cash with Cashner but not all of his remaining deal)

Elias has said that if an opportunity similar to the Cozart/Wilson trade was available, he'd have to run it by ownership

Elias has said that his key immediate term goal is to improve the talent at every level of the organization

 

Things we're assuming based on above facts:

 

That Elias would want to pursue a trade where you take on salary

You are also assuming Elias wanted Cozart, who may not be able to play this year, and assuming Elias thought that the prospect the Giants got, was worth taking Cozart's salary.  And yes, I do realize Cozart was basically irrelevant to the deal.

 

Anyway, I also do not trust the Angelos family to do the right thing, because they have given us plenty of evidence to doubt them, however in this case, the assumptions feel like a reach to me.  


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#44 Mackus

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Posted 17 December 2019 - 07:04 PM

Cozart and the prospect Wilson are irrelevant.

#45 dude

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Posted 17 December 2019 - 07:08 PM

I guess I have a lot of comments about the path the discussion has taken and part of it is related to the comments the Orioles continue to make, including events like this.

 

....but I'd like to bring it back up to the event level for a second.

 

Was anyone there? 

 

1) One comment indicated the Orioles said attendance was "approximately 1000".  I saw a couple of pictures that were included in Roch's twitter (I think) account.  It looked like no-one was there.  I didn't see any picture of a crowd.

 

2) It was an outdoor event on Eutaw Street, right?  Why would the Orioles to choose to do an outdoor event like this on 14 DEC?  It seem s like this approach would significantly limit interest and attendance.  Are we actually scheduling events to intentionally justify the (lack of) interest?

 

3) What else was done?  It appears (I didn't see anything else) the only event was a 43 minute Q&A with Elias, Mejdal and Hyde.



#46 Ravens2006

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Posted 17 December 2019 - 07:18 PM

I had a longer post in mind, but scrapped it to focus on the numbers below... you're welcome.  The Astros / Astroball way certainly succeeded in turning around that franchise.  I'd trade rosters with them yesterday.  That said, is there anything worth considering in this...

 

Vs the AL West in 2017-2019, the Astros went 152-76 for a .667 winning percentage.

 

Vs teams not named the Orioles from the AL East, in the same period, the Astros went 44-37, for a .543 winning percentage.

 

In 2016 when they started to trend up with 84 wins, they went 41-35 vs the West, and 9-17 vs the East outside of Baltimore.

 

This whole thing could work just as well for the Orioles as it did for Houston, but I suspect the environment in which the Orioles have to compete means it will make them the Rays.  Or the team that MacPhail built and Duquette drove for a few years before he burned out the engine.  I don't expect it to ever transplant the Astros regular season record to Baltimore, atop the AL East standings.  I hope I'm wrong.

 

Don't get me wrong, I want better and will appreciate almost anything better than what the fans have to support now..



#47 russsnyder

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Posted 17 December 2019 - 08:31 PM

I guess I have a lot of comments about the path the discussion has taken and part of it is related to the comments the Orioles continue to make, including events like this.

....but I'd like to bring it back up to the event level for a second.

Was anyone there?

1) One comment indicated the Orioles said attendance was "approximately 1000". I saw a couple of pictures that were included in Roch's twitter (I think) account. It looked like no-one was there. I didn't see any picture of a crowd.

2) It was an outdoor event on Eutaw Street, right? Why would the Orioles to choose to do an outdoor event like this on 14 DEC? It seem s like this approach would significantly limit interest and attendance. Are we actually scheduling events to intentionally justify the (lack of) interest?

3) What else was done? It appears (I didn't see anything else) the only event was a 43 minute Q&A with Elias, Mejdal and Hyde.


It is very curious that they would schedule an outside event on December 14. The club level at OPACY could have handled a small crowd very easily. On the surface it seems that the Orioles were anticipating a small crowd. That said, the question and answer session with Elias and Hyde was an interesting touch. BTW, I did not attend.

#48 Mike B

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Posted 17 December 2019 - 10:18 PM

Cozart and the prospect Wilson are irrelevant.

Wilson is the only reason to make the deal.


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#49 Mackus

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Posted 17 December 2019 - 10:24 PM

Wilson is the only reason to make the deal.

The specifics are irrelevant. Take on money to get a prospect is the general framework and that's what matters.

I'm certain Elias would do such a trade if he had the budget and liked the prospect. You don't have to like the prospect very much for him to be worth a low 8 figure investment. Use Cuban defector signings before the new rules as the example. Teams pay huge dollars for prospects on the open market. 5X or 10X of what slot value is. I suspect ownership would veto based on both recent reporting on the issue and based on long-standing history of the Angelos ownership.

#50 Mike B

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Posted 17 December 2019 - 10:29 PM

The specifics are irrelevant. Take on money to get a prospect is the general framework and that's what matters.

I'm certain Elias would do such a trade if he had the budget and liked the prospect. You don't have to like the prospect very much for him to be worth a low 8 figure investment. Use Cuban defector signings before the new rules as the example. Teams pay huge dollars for prospects on the open market. 5X or 10X of what slot value is. I suspect ownership would veto based on both recent reporting on the issue and based on long-standing history of the Angelos ownership.

You may very well be right.  A 15 million dollar investment for a player, you do not like should never happen.


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#51 Mackus

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Posted 17 December 2019 - 10:36 PM

You may very well be right. A 15 million dollar investment for a player, you do not like should never happen.

I'm saying you don't have to think he's a top-20 prospect overall to be worth that money.

If Wilson was released by the Angels instead of traded, I think he'd have gotten $20-25M as a free agent. Look at what Cuban guys got a half decade ago. Yusniel Diaz, for example, cost the Dodgers $31M.

Point is I think anyone with a fringe first round grade would be well worth the $12M in salary attached to Cozart. Wilson, Cozart...the details aren't important. It's beyond frustrating if ownership won't let management use budget to improve the farm system.

#52 bmore_ken

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Posted 17 December 2019 - 10:55 PM

You are also assuming Elias wanted Cozart, who may not be able to play this year, and assuming Elias thought that the prospect the Giants got, was worth taking Cozart's salary.  And yes, I do realize Cozart was basically irrelevant to the deal.

 

Anyway, I also do not trust the Angelos family to do the right thing, because they have given us plenty of evidence to doubt them, however in this case, the assumptions feel like a reach to me.  

Agree. I'm ready to slam the brothers when the evidence warrants it. There's none at the

present time.



#53 Mackus

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Posted 17 December 2019 - 11:06 PM

Agree. I'm ready to slam the brothers when the evidence warrants it. There's none at the
present time.

How much of Machado, Britton, Brach, Gausman, O'Day, Cashner, Villar, and Bundy's salary did they allow to be paid in order to increase the prospect haul coming back our way to jumpstart the rebuild? Cashner is the only one I'm aware of them pitching in money on.

Do you think our GMs are the ones who insisted we not pay the remaining frieght? That it was a tactical decision and not a budgetary one?

I think that's an ownership choice. It's not reasonable to say there is no evidence worthy of harsh criticism of the younger Angeloses. And that's if you start counting on 2018. They were likely part of the decision making team long before then.

#54 dude

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Posted 17 December 2019 - 11:49 PM

I had a longer post in mind, but scrapped it to focus on the numbers below... you're welcome.  The Astros / Astroball way certainly succeeded in turning around that franchise.  I'd trade rosters with them yesterday.  That said, is there anything worth considering in this...

 

Vs the AL West in 2017-2019, the Astros went 152-76 for a .667 winning percentage.

 

Vs teams not named the Orioles from the AL East, in the same period, the Astros went 44-37, for a .543 winning percentage.

 

Rebuilding for the Astros isn't what people want it to be.

 

The 2016 team was what they got.

 

The 2017-2019 pitching staff had nothing to do with rebuilding.

It very much appears we're learning the 2017-2019 hitting had little to do with rebuilding too.

 

You know what the analytics said?  Isolate velocity and you have a better chance to drive the ball.  They went from top10 in OPS and most Ks ('15-'16) to #1 in OPS with the fewest Ks ('17 and '18-'19). Largely the same group.  In one off-season.  They aren't even denying it now, they are taking the "we didn't know it was cheating" angle.

 

fwiw, I agree with your point that the AL East isn't going to crash to allow the Orioles to make some irrational run.

 

That's my larger point about the max reasonable opportunity in a given year and whyt you should be taking whatever shots you can while you create whatever it is you can create.

 

Elias is selling "patience", "can't rush the process" and "it will be worth it" but all he's doing is deferring accountability with no advantage for future winning.

 

We are about to waste a second season where 'rebuilding' hasn't changed the future opportunity in any season.



#55 russsnyder

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Posted 18 December 2019 - 06:27 AM

Things we know:

Orioles ownership's insistence on being involved in every move has been a problem in the past (trades vetoed by owner, not approved in time, budget on a whim, etc)
Orioles have not included salary in order to increase trade return and better build up the farm system in recent trades ('18 deadline and more recently...they did include a small amount of cash with Cashner but not all of his remaining deal)
Elias has said that if an opportunity similar to the Cozart/Wilson trade was available, he'd have to run it by ownership
Elias has said that his key immediate term goal is to improve the talent at every level of the organization

Things we're assuming based on above facts:

That Elias would want to pursue a trade where you take on salary

We also know that the Orioles have been historically tough on signing/acquiring players whom have had medical issues. Cozart is coming off a torn labrum. This may very well have been a case where the Angels easily found a more willing trade partner with the Giants. I am not that surprised that Elias would have to run taking on salary by ownership. Like it or not, it's their money.
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#56 weird-O

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Posted 18 December 2019 - 09:13 AM

I guess I have a lot of comments about the path the discussion has taken and part of it is related to the comments the Orioles continue to make, including events like this.

 

....but I'd like to bring it back up to the event level for a second.

 

Was anyone there? 

 

1) One comment indicated the Orioles said attendance was "approximately 1000".  I saw a couple of pictures that were included in Roch's twitter (I think) account.  It looked like no-one was there.  I didn't see any picture of a crowd.

 

2) It was an outdoor event on Eutaw Street, right?  Why would the Orioles to choose to do an outdoor event like this on 14 DEC?  It seem s like this approach would significantly limit interest and attendance.  Are we actually scheduling events to intentionally justify the (lack of) interest?

 

3) What else was done?  It appears (I didn't see anything else) the only event was a 43 minute Q&A with Elias, Mejdal and Hyde.

Here are a couple of links, to give you an idea of what they had going on

 

https://www.mlb.com/.../winter-warm-up

 

The weather wasn't good that day. Mid 40's and rainy 

 

https://www.pressbox...-winter-warm-up


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Good news! I saw a dog today.


#57 Mackus

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Posted 18 December 2019 - 09:48 AM

Here are a couple of links, to give you an idea of what they had going on

 

https://www.mlb.com/.../winter-warm-up

 

 

Ooh...Green Bowl was there.  They are a terrific food truck.  They come to my office about once a week.



#58 Mike B

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Posted 18 December 2019 - 10:46 AM

I think the Orioles scheduled something, because of some of the backlash over Fan Fest.  They did very little advertisement, did not have any players scheduled and got very poor weather.  


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#59 bmore_ken

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Posted 18 December 2019 - 12:33 PM

How much of Machado, Britton, Brach, Gausman, O'Day, Cashner, Villar, and Bundy's salary did they allow to be paid in order to increase the prospect haul coming back our way to jumpstart the rebuild? Cashner is the only one I'm aware of them pitching in money on.
 

Were you in on the negotiations? Inquiring minds wanna know.



#60 Mackus

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Posted 18 December 2019 - 01:00 PM

Were you in on the negotiations? Inquiring minds wanna know.

 

I don't understand this comment.






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