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BSL: How the Orioles can subtly improve this offseason


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#1 BSLBobHarkins

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Posted 09 December 2019 - 07:14 PM

BSL: How the Orioles can subtly improve this offseason

https://www.baltimor...rove-offseason/


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#2 dude

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Posted 09 December 2019 - 11:29 PM

None of this moves the needle.

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I don't like the setup and I think it's inconsistent with reality.

This is about re-stocking an empty cupboard, ...

The Orioles farm system is no longer the pit of death it used to be, now possessing four Top 100 players...

 

So which is it?  'Empty cupboard' or 'no longer the pit of death'.  Those are very different things.

 

...and btw, most publications have the Orioles ranked around the top 10 at this point and none of that has ANYTHING to do with rebuilding under Elias or 2019.

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I don't know why we get the Davis stuff wrong.  When we look at the COTs site, do we know what we're looking at?.

 

Davis is owed 17M per for the next 3 seasons + 18M that's deferred from these years.  There's 24M that's already been deferred from the previous 4 seasons.  Right now, the Orioles are on the hook for 93M with Davis. 51M over the next 3 + 42M deferred 2023 through 2037.

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There's nothing unique about all of the other stuff.  The Dodgers are doing all of the things the Orioles are doing.  rebuilding isn't the start of Talent accumulation.  Winning doesn't stop Talent accumulation.  You can win and add Talent to the system every year.  They aren't mutually exclusive things, no matter what the blind reiteration of the rebuilding talking point tells us to do.

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Trying to prop up these recent trades as meaningful is absurd.  It's not changing the opportunity in any year.  

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I get it.  Everyone likes rebuilding.  Yes there's things they can do. 

 

 

Another meaningless season of low-lights that don't change the future. 

Anyone can reduce expectations to nothing and lose. 

You don't get to win later because you lose now.



#3 russsnyder

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Posted 10 December 2019 - 05:42 AM

Davis has got to go. He simply is no longer a major league player. Further, there is value to that 26th spot. He brings no value on the field at this point.

#4 BSLRobShields

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Posted 10 December 2019 - 06:36 AM


You don't get to win later because you lose now.


Very true.

But, if you do it correctly, by losing now you also likely acquire a lot more depth, have a lot more long term payroll flexibility.

That doesn’t guarantee winning but it also increases your chances and that’s what rebuilding really is...give you as many potential long term options as possible.

Now, where Elias loses me in all of this is if he doesn’t deal Mancini. Yes, I’m not trading him for a Bundy package. I’m not trading him just for the hell of it. However, you can’t talk about rebuilding, how you want long term assets, etc...and then keep a guy who just had a year unlike any year he has had in his career and at age 27.

He just isn’t likely to be a key piece on the next Orioles contending team.

I would say the same thing about Givens but I think Givens could be part of that next good team and, more importantly, I question that his value is at a level where it’s worth dealing him. He has a lot of value if he pitching where he has in the past, so I hold onto him unless you are still able to get a lot for him.

Let’s also remember that Elias is 1 year into this job. You keep talking about how he has done nothing that guarantees winning later. I agree with that. Everyone should agree with that. It’s a clear and obvious statement.

However, he is also laying a foundation for what needs to be done. He has done a lot of evaluations of the support staff and brought in his own people. There is only so much that he could do in the first year.

Usually, a large part of rebuilding is trading pieces, getting long term assets and going from there. The Orioles just didn’t/don’t have many players to trade.

From 1988-2011, the Orioles consistently tried to put a representative team on the field. Angelos didn’t want the Os fans to have to watch what we saw last year. Because of that, the Os were constantly bad and never good enough to get the excitement level that high. They were rarely 2019 bad but they were also never a true contender. They wouldn’t trade players (until AM got here). They rarely got a high pick.

Now, could the Orioles have been a way better overall organization while trying to be competent on the field? Sure. PA was a terrible owner and screwed the organization for years. You certainly can have a better product while rebuilding...but you also have to have ownership being on the same page with you there.

If the Angelos family told Elias you do what you need to do but we want a better product on the field and are allowing you to have a 100M dollar payroll, I would bet the team would look better. Chances are, they are saying that while we suck, they don’t want to spend money and that they aren’t willing to spend 90-100M on a 75 win team. I think that’s the part of this you forget.
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#5 BSLSteveBirrer

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Posted 10 December 2019 - 09:55 AM



Let’s also remember that Elias is 1 year into this job. You keep talking about how he has done nothing that guarantees winning later. I agree with that. Everyone should agree with that. It’s a clear and obvious statement.

However, he is also laying a foundation for what needs to be done. He has done a lot of evaluations of the support staff and brought in his own people. There is only so much that he could do in the first year.
 

 

Isn't the very first thing you need to do to establish a winning program is to evaluate the organization from top to bottom? Establish the direction the organization should head from scouting, to player development, to analytics. A strong system is the only sustainable way to winning outside of insane payrolls. So I don't get this "he has done nothing that guarantees winning later."  And for the record you should probably take out the word guarantee. Nothing, not even all the money in the world guarantees winning. Sure it puts you at the top potentially but it does not guarantee it.



#6 BSLRobShields

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Posted 10 December 2019 - 10:04 AM

Isn't the very first thing you need to do to establish a winning program is to evaluate the organization from top to bottom? Establish the direction the organization should head from scouting, to player development, to analytics. A strong system is the only sustainable way to winning outside of insane payrolls. So I don't get this "he has done nothing that guarantees winning later."  And for the record you should probably take out the word guarantee. Nothing, not even all the money in the world guarantees winning. Sure it puts you at the top potentially but it does not guarantee it.


Steve, you can do those things and have a better on field product.

That is dudes point and he is 100% right.
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#7 BSLSteveBirrer

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Posted 10 December 2019 - 12:22 PM

Steve, you can do those things and have a better on field product.

That is dudes point and he is 100% right.

Yes but Dude basically says Elias isn't doing anything. That is what I disagree with.



#8 BSLRobShields

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Posted 10 December 2019 - 12:30 PM

Yes but Dude basically says Elias isn't doing anything. That is what I disagree with.


Well, he’s saying that what he is doing isn’t anything he can’t do whether you rebuild or not.

That’s a true statement.
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#9 dude

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Posted 10 December 2019 - 09:56 PM

Yes but Dude basically says Elias isn't doing anything. That is what I disagree with.

 

I didn't say Elias isn't doing anything.

 

I utterly non-concur with the consequences of rebuilding, but Elias (and Co) are doing many relevant things inside of the Organization to improve structure.

 

I disagree with the extent that people take some of the analytics stuff but I still believe it's both relevant and important and it's good there's someone in there that has more structure to the process.

 

I don't think any of that makes a lock for 90-win teams in 3 years.

 

What IS TRUE is that the Orioles current MiL ranking (most have them around 10) is tied exclusively to the 'bare cupboard' that everyone used to justify rebuilding.....and even that Talent level was what I'd consider a half-assed effort by DD (and Co).  The Orioles could and should be further ahead.

 

When Bob points out the Orioles have 4 guys (AR, GR, DLH, RM) in the Top100 prospects (and there are a couple other fringe guys)....they are all a product of the work that someone else did before he got here and that includes Adley.

 

Nothing in the short-term W-L approach is changing the opportunity of the 2024 season. 



#10 BSLSteveBirrer

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Posted 11 December 2019 - 09:24 AM

I didn't say Elias isn't doing anything.

 

I utterly non-concur with the consequences of rebuilding, but Elias (and Co) are doing many relevant things inside of the Organization to improve structure.

 

I disagree with the extent that people take some of the analytics stuff but I still believe it's both relevant and important and it's good there's someone in there that has more structure to the process.

 

I don't think any of that makes a lock for 90-win teams in 3 years.

 

What IS TRUE is that the Orioles current MiL ranking (most have them around 10) is tied exclusively to the 'bare cupboard' that everyone used to justify rebuilding.....and even that Talent level was what I'd consider a half-assed effort by DD (and Co).  The Orioles could and should be further ahead.

 

When Bob points out the Orioles have 4 guys (AR, GR, DLH, RM) in the Top100 prospects (and there are a couple other fringe guys)....they are all a product of the work that someone else did before he got here and that includes Adley.

 

Nothing in the short-term W-L approach is changing the opportunity of the 2024 season. 

Fair enough Dude. But a question on the bolded statement. Doesn't the current regime get some credit for developing these guys further along or was their development clinched in with the previous system? Seems to me that they ought to get some credit for moving them along?



#11 dude

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Posted 11 December 2019 - 11:16 PM

Doesn't the current regime get some credit for developing these guys further along or was their development clinched in with the previous system? Seems to me that they ought to get some credit for moving them along?

 

I think the answer is sure, but is it any different than the expectations we had coming in?

 

I've tried to suggest this, but nobody really wants to do it.  Go to the mlb.com top-10, -20, -30 whatever level you want to do and consider their performance against what we sort of expected coming in....there's so much variability for different reasons, but if you just put guys in 3 categories....(1) clearly better, (2) about the same, or (3) clearly worse....I think almost everyone is in (2).

 

You'd have a guy like Sedlock that is clearly better, but he's not driving any rating yet (and we left him unprotected for anyone to take)

 

I really liked the interview with Chris Holt that Melewski did and I think there's some real merit in what they're doing in several areas (so that's all good) but that's not something you see in Talent rankings yet.  Guys like Akin may actually appear (statistically) a little worse, but some of that is (may be) attacking approaches they'll need for later.

 

Again, the point is that the Talent that many people are expecting to be part of the next successful Orioles team is part of the 'bare cupboard' that we were in crisis about and rebuilding hasn't added anything of significance yet (including the recent trades).



#12 BSLRobShields

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Posted 12 December 2019 - 06:10 AM

I think the answer is sure, but is it any different than the expectations we had coming in?
 
I've tried to suggest this, but nobody really wants to do it.  Go to the mlb.com top-10, -20, -30 whatever level you want to do and consider their performance against what we sort of expected coming in....there's so much variability for different reasons, but if you just put guys in 3 categories....(1) clearly better, (2) about the same, or (3) clearly worse....I think almost everyone is in (2).
 
You'd have a guy like Sedlock that is clearly better, but he's not driving any rating yet (and we left him unprotected for anyone to take)
 
I really liked the interview with Chris Holt that Melewski did and I think there's some real merit in what they're doing in several areas (so that's all good) but that's not something you see in Talent rankings yet.  Guys like Akin may actually appear (statistically) a little worse, but some of that is (may be) attacking approaches they'll need for later.
 
Again, the point is that the Talent that many people are expecting to be part of the next successful Orioles team is part of the 'bare cupboard' that we were in crisis about and rebuilding hasn't added anything of significance yet (including the recent trades).


Easy way of answering this.

I agree that the cupboard wasn’t bare. When I define that, within the context of this particular discussion, I am talking pure talent.

There was good talent there. However, under the old way of doing things, I had zero faith that the team would have developed any of the pitching.

I think offensive players would have developed similarly..defensively, the organization was doing a good job.

Pitching wise? No way anyone could think they would develop these guys.

So yes, I do think they have done a very solid job, early on, of developing these guys and making the system stronger.

And while the 2019 didn’t do anything in terms of gaining the first pick, they still pulled the trigger and their group of scouts/talent evaluators seemingly had a good draft. So yes, they did impact the system. It would be silly to argue otherwise.

The question is, how large was that impact? We won’t know that for a while..but again, it’s 1 year. They aren’t going to
Accomplish everything in a year.
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