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BSL: Jackson’s improved, but where does he still need to grow?


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#121 NewMarketSean

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Posted 14 October 2019 - 12:41 PM

I don’t think he has performed at a high level vs the better teams...I mean, he did nothing vs KC until garbage time this year, for example. You can’t just show up for one quarter.

 

"Garbage Time", "Throw out Miami game".

 

You sure do have a lot of disqualifiers when discussing Lamar.


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#122 BSLRobShields

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Posted 14 October 2019 - 01:00 PM

"Garbage Time", "Throw out Miami game".
 
You sure do have a lot of disqualifiers when discussing Lamar.


So, you think garbage time stats are the same as the stats that are done when the game is closer and you have a chance to win?
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#123 Mackus

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Posted 14 October 2019 - 01:28 PM

Garbage time cuts both ways.  I do think it's a different environment than what to expect in a normal game scenario.

 

But for every touchdown in garbage time that needs to be looked at skeptically as to whether or not it really is a fair example of skill, there is an interception in garbage time out of desperation that needs to similarly be discounted.

 

Lamar threw two picks late against Cleveland.  They were both his fault, not tipped balls or stopped routes.  But neither of them impact my evaluation of his decision-making or passing from the pocket, as we were in a desperate scenario and the only hope for a big comeback involved taking huge risks that you wouldn't normally take.  Forcing balls into double coverage in those situations is not nearly the sin that it would be in a close game.


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#124 Mike B

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Posted 14 October 2019 - 01:37 PM

I don’t think he has performed at a high level vs the better teams...I mean, he did nothing vs KC until garbage time this year, for example. You can’t just show up for one quarter.

I think you are being unfair in your eval.  He played very well against KC and LAC last year, and garbage time against KC this year?

 

He got the lead cut to 5. I think, and we were one defensive stop, from having a chance to win.  How is that garbage time?


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#125 BSLMikeRandall

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Posted 14 October 2019 - 01:45 PM

QBR takes into account opponent, time of game, field position, current score, etc... So QBR would adjust for the inferior Dolphins D, the “garbage time”, all that.

Lamar Jackson is 6th in the league. I’m good with that.
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#126 BSLMikeRandall

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Posted 14 October 2019 - 01:47 PM

so garbage time also has to go in the Ravens D favor then, since they gave up their first TD very late in the 4th quarter, up by two scores.
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#127 Mike B

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Posted 14 October 2019 - 01:47 PM

QBR takes into account opponent, time of game, field position, current score, etc... So QBR would adjust for the inferior Dolphins D, the “garbage time”, all that.

Lamar Jackson is 6th in the league. I’m good with that.

This seems like a good way of looking at it.


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#128 Mackus

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Posted 14 October 2019 - 01:52 PM

QBR takes into account opponent, time of game, field position, current score, etc... So QBR would adjust for the inferior Dolphins D, the “garbage time”, all that.

Lamar Jackson is 6th in the league. I’m good with that.

 

I think Lamar is going to be such an outlier in terms of running the ball that QBR is going to be hard pressed to accurately assess the value of his running.

 

I've got nothing beyond a guess as to whether it's going to overstate or understate the value that his legs provide.  But I'd be really surprised if the formulas that go into the calculation can appropriately weight the extreme that Lamar provides there.  Even though it's designed to include running yardage and sacks and build on the normal QB Rating, I don't think the people that designed the stat had someone who runs quite as much (and frequently as effectively) as Lamar in mind when they build the model.  


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#129 BSLRobShields

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Posted 14 October 2019 - 01:53 PM

I think you are being unfair in your eval.  He played very well against KC and LAC last year, and garbage time against KC this year?

 

He got the lead cut to 5. I think, and we were one defensive stop, from having a chance to win.  How is that garbage time?

His stats in the first 3 quarters were poor in that game.

 

As we have seen over the years for the Ravens, teams get back into games late because of soft zone coverage, giving WR lots of space, etc...We all complain that you are just handing yards to these players and teams yet when I mention it as a reason Lamar a lot of his stats, all of a sudden Im not being fair?

 

Does that mean when we used to blame Pees for allowing teams to just drive down the field after he changed his defense, that we were always being unfair to Pees?  Does that mean that the prevent defense isn't something we should slam?  We should be ok with all of that?


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#130 BSLRobShields

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Posted 14 October 2019 - 01:54 PM

so garbage time also has to go in the Ravens D favor then, since they gave up their first TD very late in the 4th quarter, up by two scores.

Of course it does.  That's why I personally agreed with you that the game yesterday was never in doubt...even if I do think they should have scored more points and done a better job of finishing off drives.


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#131 Mackus

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Posted 14 October 2019 - 01:56 PM

Does that mean when we used to blame Pees for allowing teams to just drive down the field after he changed his defense, that we were always being unfair to Pees?  Does that mean that the prevent defense isn't something we should slam?  We should be ok with all of that?

 

There is a pretty big difference between garbage time and what I remember about the complaints against Dean Pees.  Those complaints were against him (and Rex often did the same thing, IIRC) of going to a prevent, take-away-the-big-play defense when the opponent had the ball and only needed one score to tie.



#132 BSLMikeRandall

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Posted 14 October 2019 - 02:03 PM

Of course it does. That's why I personally agreed with you that the game yesterday was never in doubt...even if I do think they should have scored more points and done a better job of finishing off drives.


True. Wasn’t really coming at you there. Just the handful that the defensive effort wasn’t good yesterday. Heard some that on the radio today too. Had no podcasts updated so listened to 5 minutes of the bad morning show. Maybe lumping in the KO return in with the defense. Only 2 sacks, missed tackles (which I didn’t see much off yesterday)
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#133 BSLRobShields

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Posted 14 October 2019 - 02:09 PM

.  He played very well against KC and LAC last year, and garbage time against KC this year?

 

Game 1 vs KC:   13-24, 147 yards, 54% completion%. 6.1 ypa,..2 TDs, 0 picks....69 QBR.  Not bad.  YPA were Flacco like (you know, one of the things Joe was always bashed for) and his completion% wasn't good but he didn't throw an INT and ran the ball well.  

 

Game 1 vs LA: 12-22;  204 yards, 54.5%, 9.3 YPA, 38 QBR,,,1 TD, 0 INTs....So, YPA was very strong...no INTs...poor completion% again and a bad QBR.  

 

Game 2 vs LA:  14-29, 194 yards,  48.3% completion%; 2 TDs, 1 INT, 11.4 QBR.....Not much good about this game.

 

NOTE:  He ran the ball pretty well in all of these games and I am not noting his fumbles here.  Also sacked 12 times total.

 

KC game this year:  22-43; 267 yards; 6.2 YPA, 51.5 completion%, 0 TDs, 0 INTs, 51.5 QBR  (Ravens scored 13 points through 3 quarters although the drive to get to 19 points started in Q3)  He threw for 140 yards in the 4thQ and the last TD was when the score was 33-22.  It was similar to the Cinci TD yesterday.

 

Look, its early for Lamar and when you are a rookie QB (what he essentially is), it takes time to learn to beat good teams.  It takes time to consistently put up good numbers vs good teams.  My point is that is the last thing we need to see from him w/r/t how good he is playing right now.  Yes, he needs to get better at other things but until he starts beating other good teams and playing well vs them, I think it is fair to say we need him to play better in those games.


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#134 BSLRobShields

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Posted 14 October 2019 - 02:11 PM

There is a pretty big difference between garbage time and what I remember about the complaints against Dean Pees.  Those complaints were against him (and Rex often did the same thing, IIRC) of going to a prevent, take-away-the-big-play defense when the opponent had the ball and only needed one score to tie.

But that's what was happening in the KC game....especially towards the end.  That's my point.  He threw for most of his yards at a point in the game his team was down 2-3 scores.  

 

He needs to be better earlier in those games.  He can't be as brutal in the first 3 quarters  as he was against KC and Cle and expect to win games against some of the better teams on the schedule.  It just can't happen unless you are getting flukish things like ST and defensive scores.


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#135 NewMarketSean

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Posted 14 October 2019 - 02:12 PM

So, you think garbage time stats are the same as the stats that are done when the game is closer and you have a chance to win?

 

I think what you and Chris say often is true, and that everything evens out over the course of a season and by the end, the stats are the stats.


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#136 BSLMikeRandall

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Posted 14 October 2019 - 02:13 PM

I think Lamar is going to be such an outlier in terms of running the ball that QBR is going to be hard pressed to accurately assess the value of his running.

I've got nothing beyond a guess as to whether it's going to overstate or understate the value that his legs provide. But I'd be really surprised if the formulas that go into the calculation can appropriately weight the extreme that Lamar provides there. Even though it's designed to include running yardage and sacks and build on the normal QB Rating, I don't think the people that designed the stat had someone who runs quite as much (and frequently as effectively) as Lamar in mind when they build the model.

Yeah I’m not sure. They came up with it in 2011. So you had Vick and Cam, Tebow, was Josh Freeman really a runner? Next year you had RG3 and Russ Wilson join the fold. I would think they accounted for it in some way. But Lamar is going to break all of Vick’s records

The top 5 right now are Dak, Russ, Mahomes, Watson, Wentz. Then Lamar.

I wonder how heavy the opponent slider is because Brady is 11th, having played no one, and having not been in any crucial situations. Bills game was close. That’s about it.
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#137 BSLRobShields

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Posted 14 October 2019 - 02:14 PM

I think what you and Chris say often is true, and that everything evens out over the course of a season and by the end, the stats are the stats.

This I agree with.

 

Still, i stand by my point that you want to dispute...he needs to play better against the better teams to give the team a better chance to win.  (he is hardly the only issue vs those teams btw...not pinning it all on him)


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#138 Mike B

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Posted 14 October 2019 - 02:20 PM

This I agree with.

 

Still, i stand by my point that you want to dispute...he needs to play better against the better teams to give the team a better chance to win.  (he is hardly the only issue vs those teams btw...not pinning it all on him)

Every team and player needs a breakthrough game.  The Ravens are going to beat someone they are not supposed to this year.  It may be Sunday.  a lot of extra energy should be seen Sunday.  Lamar vs. Wilson, ET returns to Seattle etc.  The ravens need to play very good to win, but they can win in Seattle.  A good but not great team.

Go Ravens.


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#139 NewMarketSean

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Posted 14 October 2019 - 02:21 PM

This I agree with.

 

Still, i stand by my point that you want to dispute...he needs to play better against the better teams to give the team a better chance to win.  (he is hardly the only issue vs those teams btw...not pinning it all on him)

The defense needs to play better than Lamar. The coaches need to coach better too.

 

I think Lamar is definitely the bottom 3rd of this team's concerns moving forward.


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#140 BSLRobShields

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Posted 14 October 2019 - 02:22 PM

The defense needs to play better than Lamar. The coaches need to coach better too.

 

I think Lamar is definitely the bottom 3rd of this team's concerns moving forward.

Your QB is always your #1 concern if he is playing poorly for 3/4 of the game.  Its the most important position in sports.

 

Still, its not all his fault...he needs help.


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