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BSL: Would the Orioles really non tender Villar?


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#1 BSLRobShields

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Posted 11 October 2019 - 12:23 AM

https://www.baltimor...-tender-villar/
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#2 BSLSteveBirrer

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Posted 11 October 2019 - 08:16 AM

Trade him.

 

Sign him.

 

Let him go.

 

There are arguments for doing any of the three including just letting him go. Certainly the O's are not having payroll issues in 2020. Certainly we hope they field a more competitive team in 2020. But as Rob pointed out they can field a more competitive team next season that does not include Villar. But I will take one different viewpoint. If you don't think Villar is worth $10M on the team you are going with next season then I have no problem with them not spending that $10M. And this has zero to do with any banking the money for future years. Its a simple business decision. Does spending $10M on Villar in 2020 make sense? 

 

Now I would keep him unless they can find a trade, and hope to move him in July. That's my preference but I also see not spending $10M just to make a few fans happy.



#3 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 11 October 2019 - 08:27 AM

The point of keeping him isn't just that he makes the '20 team better...  (the level he makes the O's better in '20 is ultimately of little importance)... it's that he's an asset you have, that you can easily afford.  

There is no reason to just let that asset go.  You keep him around, and if you want to trade him later, and get something for his talent... fine.  But you can't let him go and get nothing for him. 

 

 

I'm not locked into the idea that you have to trade Mancini or Villar, but if I'm trading one or the other (assuming they do in-fact tender Villar), to me it's a far easier decision to trade Mancini. 

You can trade Mancini, and by June '20 have Santander and Diaz on the corners, along with Mountcastle and Stewart at 1st and DH. 

 

Villar being able to adequately play SS and 2nd has value, even for a team that isn't ready to even sniff .500.  Especially when you have a lack of internal options. 

 

 

 

The 2020 O's can easily take a step forward.  Not to the point they are good, or even average.. but they can go from being abysmal to respectable and on a clear upward trajectory.  Letting Villar go for nothing would make that far less likely. 



#4 Mike B

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Posted 11 October 2019 - 09:27 AM

Roch has been hinting at this for months now.  I think there is a chance they do non-tender or trade Villar for scraps.

 

I am also not sure, that this is an Angelos brother's thing.  Elias is very smart, but he is also very arrogant, IMO, and if he is inclined to use the $$$ elsewhere. he is going to do it and not care about what anyone thinks.    That is his job, and it is good that he has the autonomy to do it, but IMO, if Villar is non-tendered or traded for a couple of 17 year old names, that we probably never see, than that is wrong.

 

The Orioles have been worse than pathetic for over 2 seasons now.  I am not interested in another 2 or 3.  I don't expect them to compete for anything next year, but I do expect them to field something that looks like a major league product, capable of winning more than 55 games.


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#5 Mackus

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Posted 11 October 2019 - 09:53 AM

if he is inclined to use the $$$ elsewhere. he is going to do it and not care about what anyone thinks.

 

He's not gonna use it elsewhere though.  There is nowhere else to use it if not on MLB payroll.  Anything they may do in all the other areas can absolutely happen whether Villar's $8M salary is on the 2020 books or not.  Cutting him does not allow for any single other move to be made.

 

If Elias says that's what he is doing, that he needed to cut Villar to have the money required to do some scouting or development or analysis task, then he is outright lying to the fanbase.  That's somewhat to be expected, the GM has no obligation to be truthful.  But it's a flat out lie.



#6 Mike B

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Posted 11 October 2019 - 10:18 AM

He's not gonna use it elsewhere though.  There is nowhere else to use it if not on MLB payroll.  Anything they may do in all the other areas can absolutely happen whether Villar's $8M salary is on the 2020 books or not.  Cutting him does not allow for any single other move to be made.

 

If Elias says that's what he is doing, that he needed to cut Villar to have the money required to do some scouting or development or analysis task, then he is outright lying to the fanbase.  That's somewhat to be expected, the GM has no obligation to be truthful.  But it's a flat out lie.

I think, it is all connected.  He clearly has his operating budget, and he has said over and over that money not spent on one area can be used in others.  He mentioned this last year when he was questioned about the un-used international slots.  To paraphrase, he said, the slots were real dollars when used, and that the money saved from not signing the Mesa's and others, would be used in other area's.

 

To say there is no connection, IMO is false.  He clearly wants to create different scouting methods, a "world class analytics, department, ugh, etc.

 

My view, the Orioles have very few quality ML players.  IMO, Villar is one.  I have no interest, in non tendering Villar to spend, on more numbers guys.


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#7 BSLRobShields

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Posted 11 October 2019 - 10:18 AM

He's not gonna use it elsewhere though.  There is nowhere else to use it if not on MLB payroll.  Anything they may do in all the other areas can absolutely happen whether Villar's $8M salary is on the 2020 books or not.  Cutting him does not allow for any single other move to be made.

 

If Elias says that's what he is doing, that he needed to cut Villar to have the money required to do some scouting or development or analysis task, then he is outright lying to the fanbase.  That's somewhat to be expected, the GM has no obligation to be truthful.  But it's a flat out lie.

Of course, it helps that much of the fan base will believe him and run with it because "we are doing the right things".

 

I really like Elias and have 100% confidence in him but Mackus is right here.


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#8 BSLRobShields

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Posted 11 October 2019 - 10:19 AM

I think, it is all connected.  He clearly has his operating budget, and he has said over and over that money not spent on one area can be used in others.  He mentioned this last year when he was questioned about the un-used international slots.  To paraphrase, he said, the slots were real dollars when used, and that the money saved from not signing the Mesa's and others, would be used in other area's.

 

To say there is no connection, IMO is false.  He clearly wants to create different scouting methods, a "world class analytics, department, ugh, etc.

 

My view, the Orioles have very few quality ML players.  IMO, Villar is one.  I have no interest, in non tendering Villar to spend, on more numbers guys.

If there is a connection, as you suggest, Elias should quit now because he will never be able to do what he really wants to do with this ownership group.


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#9 weird-O

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Posted 11 October 2019 - 11:40 AM

He's not gonna use it elsewhere though.  There is nowhere else to use it if not on MLB payroll.  Anything they may do in all the other areas can absolutely happen whether Villar's $8M salary is on the 2020 books or not.  Cutting him does not allow for any single other move to be made.

 

If Elias says that's what he is doing, that he needed to cut Villar to have the money required to do some scouting or development or analysis task, then he is outright lying to the fanbase.  That's somewhat to be expected, the GM has no obligation to be truthful.  But it's a flat out lie.

Under Peter, I would have unequivocally agreed with you. Money saved will not be used later or in other areas. In this situation, I had a thought. I'm not fully committed to it, so I thought I'd share it and maybe get some reactions. 

 

This team was literally operating in the dark ages. The expense of implementing current technologies and development practices are probably truly heavy. They need to build facilities in Latin America, beef up the scouting dept (I estimate $90K/per, if they want quality people). And then there's the equipment, as well as other things that I'm not thinking of, but I assume they exist.

 

I don't think this is an excuse they can use every winter, but I could see there being some truth to it this winter.   


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#10 Mike B

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Posted 11 October 2019 - 03:31 PM

Under Peter, I would have unequivocally agreed with you. Money saved will not be used later or in other areas. In this situation, I had a thought. I'm not fully committed to it, so I thought I'd share it and maybe get some reactions. 

 

This team was literally operating in the dark ages. The expense of implementing current technologies and development practices are probably truly heavy. They need to build facilities in Latin America, beef up the scouting dept (I estimate $90K/per, if they want quality people). And then there's the equipment, as well as other things that I'm not thinking of, but I assume they exist.

 

I don't think this is an excuse they can use every winter, but I could see there being some truth to it this winter.   

First I apologize for derailing the thread, but I am sure Elias has an operating budget for Baseball operations, and I am also sure or at least hope, he can move money around.


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#11 weird-O

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Posted 11 October 2019 - 04:31 PM

First I apologize for derailing the thread, but I am sure Elias has an operating budget for Baseball operations, and I am also sure or at least hope, he can move money around.

I think this is all connected to the main topic, and interesting to discuss. And I'm glad you follow up with this comment, because it's at the heart of what I was pondering. I'm guessing a typical operating budget serves to maintenance the existing infrastructure, and whatever incremental additions/improvements are added. But the O's could be looking at a significant increase to what they've been dedicating in recent years. I'm assuming they'll need to build baseball compounds in multiple countries. That's really why I think they'll be dropping some coin. Land may/may not be inexpensive, but building the structures and such, that will cost lots of money. 

 

I googled to see if I could find info on what (if any) physical presence they have in LA, but I didn't see anything definitive.


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#12 dude

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Posted 11 October 2019 - 06:14 PM

First I apologize for derailing the thread, but I am sure Elias has an operating budget for Baseball operations, and I am also sure or at least hope, he can move money around.

 

My guess would be that this is specifically wrong.  I'm not saying he can't spend to build up infrastructure/whatever, I'd guess he can.  But he lines up the things he wants to do and gets approval(whatever) to spend, not I have this budget and I get to do what I want with it.



#13 dude

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Posted 11 October 2019 - 06:18 PM

In this situation, I had a thought. I'm not fully committed to it, so I thought I'd share it and maybe get some reactions. 

 

This team was literally operating in the dark ages. The expense of implementing current technologies and development practices are probably truly heavy. 

 

I think the scale is off.  There could certainly be some load in buying hardware and other things (they already have a Dominican Facility) but that's millions, not 10s of millions.



#14 dude

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Posted 11 October 2019 - 11:13 PM

.... if Villar is non-tendered or traded for a couple of 17 year old names, that we probably never see, than that is wrong.

 

My guess is that when you are your analytics, you get caught up in stuff like this.

 

It's not an assessment of "what can I do", it's an assessment of "is this good value".

 

If he doesn't think he can get a return for Villar that merits the cost risk of carrying him, then it makes sense, if you are following the analytics, not to spend that money.


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#15 russsnyder

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Posted 12 October 2019 - 01:50 AM

My guess is that when you are your analytics, you get caught up in stuff like this.

It's not an assessment of "what can I do", it's an assessment of "is this good value".

If he doesn't think he can get a return for Villar that merits the cost risk of carrying him, then it makes sense, if you are following the analytics, not to spend that money.


I think the only reason Villar is non tendered may be the offers Elias got for Villar at last year's trade deadline. As you state, his potential cost will most likely not merit the potential return. Although I prefer to keep Villar, I see what you post as a good core argument to non tender.

#16 weird-O

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Posted 12 October 2019 - 02:24 PM

I think the scale is off.  There could certainly be some load in buying hardware and other things (they already have a Dominican Facility) but that's millions, not 10s of millions.

Cool, this is why I wanted to share my thought and open it up for discussion. It's multi-faceted, so I was confident I didn't have a full grasp of the topic. Like I mentioned before, I couldn't find any details on their LA facilities, so I didn't know if they had any or what their condition(s) may be. I'm sure there's room to improve them, given their long term policy of ignoring that part of the baseball world.


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#17 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 06 November 2019 - 07:54 AM

Orioles.com: Productive Villar hopes his future is in Baltimore
https://www.mlb.com/...ar-seeks-return






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