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MASN: The Orioles may be forced to part with Jonathan Villar


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#1 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 10 October 2019 - 08:21 AM

MASN: The Orioles may be forced to part with Jonathan Villar

https://www.masnspor...han-villar.html

 

 

It's a ridiculous notion imo that Villar could be too expensive for the '20 Orioles. 

I'm not saying Steve is wrong in suggesting the O's might non-tender... I'm saying it would be poor if the O's did not. 

I certainly don't want to hear 'too expensive', when we're looking at the likely total team payroll. 


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#2 BSLRobShields

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Posted 10 October 2019 - 08:45 AM

NT him would be the dumbest move this team has made in a very long time.

I don’t believe for a second that you can’t deal him, even if you have to eat some of the contract.

I don’t believe that you couldn’t have dealt him at the deadline. What I believe is that the return wasn’t enough for the Os to deal him. If that’s the case, they knew they could keep him for 2020 and had some rough idea of what he would make.
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#3 Mackus

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Posted 10 October 2019 - 09:17 AM

Non-tendering him would be ludicrous.  He may not be worth all of $10M, but who cares?  It's not like they are tight on budget or that any money we save by cutting him will ever help the team in any way.



#4 DJ MC

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Posted 10 October 2019 - 09:23 AM

That puts the rebuilding Orioles at $64.3 million for nine players.

 

That's 31% of the luxury tax threshold for 2020. And most of the rest of the team will be on minimum-plus salaries. But no, can't afford it.


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#5 DJ MC

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Posted 10 October 2019 - 11:18 AM

Now Meoli is saying it.

 

https://www.baltimor...7ytq-story.html


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#6 Mackus

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Posted 10 October 2019 - 11:56 AM

Aside from the conversation of how incomprehensibly stupid, glaringly greedy, and absolutely indefensible it would be if the team non-tendered Villar...I think that a $10.4M estimate is too high for him.

 

He had a nice season, but not a $5.5-6M raise through arbitration type season.  My guess is he's closer to $8M than to $10.4M.

 

But even if his salary was going to be $12M there would be no good argument for non-tendering him.



#7 BSLRobShields

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Posted 10 October 2019 - 12:16 PM

I agree 10M is on the high side. I was thinking something around 8 as well.
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#8 BSLBobPhelan

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Posted 10 October 2019 - 03:49 PM

No chance we non-tender him. Seems unfathomable to me. Not sure why everyone is running with that.

Trade him now or at the next deadline. Simple.

#9 mdrunning

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Posted 10 October 2019 - 09:44 PM

Aside from the conversation of how incomprehensibly stupid, glaringly greedy, and absolutely indefensible it would be if the team non-tendered Villar...I think that a $10.4M estimate is too high for him.

 

He had a nice season, but not a $5.5-6M raise through arbitration type season.  My guess is he's closer to $8M than to $10.4M.

 

But even if his salary was going to be $12M there would be no good argument for non-tendering him.

Even if the number is around $10.4 million, you have to figure the Orioles will only be on the hook for about half of that since Villar is almost certain to be dealt by the deadline.

 

Five million isn't a bad figure for a guy who plays every day, will likely produce about a 2.0 or so WAR, and could net a couple of decent prospects who at least have some upside. That's a price worth paying in arbitration.

 

For the record, I can't see any scenario in which the Orioles simply non-tender Villar. To do so would send a message as big as sky writing that they're not just rebuilding, but are deliberately tanking.



#10 dude

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Posted 10 October 2019 - 10:06 PM

1. So how is it that both Melewski and Meoli are coming up with these terrible opinions at the same time?

 

2. As for Villar @ 10.4M, I'll take the under.  A lot under.  I'll take the under @ 8M.

 

3. How is it that Melewski doesn't understand 2020 payroll?  The Orioles don't pay deferred salaries now.  They don't save money for them because that deferred money will count against the future year in terms of costs.  You don't count it twice.  If you aren't smart enough to understand it, there's a "2020 Baseline" post that describes it.  I'm not making up my own math system, I just put the numbers in an Excel spreadsheet.  Steve, if that's mean and you are smart enough to understand it, why do you keep portraying it that way?

 

It feels like they are using the "25-man roster - Salaries and pro-rated signing bonuses" from COT's but that's not 2020 costs. 

 

4. Any discussions or reference to the AAV values for CBT purposes (or even any references to it) is just silly.  It will literally never be in play for the Orioles.  Never.  Ever.  We don't need to include it in anything because it is never an issue.  Period.

 

If you're Boston, it's important.  It's important for a half dozen other teams.  Not even a consideration for the Orioles.

 

5. Why does Meoli continue to push this narrative?

...and in 2019, the Orioles also made it a point to not devote much money that wasn’t already committed to the major league roster, instead using those resources to build up the scouting and player development infrastructure.

  The DNC just can't have this many openings.

 

6.  So how do with get to this comment? 

 They’d be back around that $86 million figure with Cobb, Davis and arbitration raises, plus their league-minimum players. And there’s no way the Orioles are going to lose 100-plus games for that much money a third straight year.

  Where have they spent another 20M????  Is Biden's kid working for the Orioles?  If they basically take everyone, they're somewhere around 65M (2020 Baseline) for the 26-man.  Yes you have to account for the 40-man at some point and yes you'll have the Est Player Benefits, but those are in a different discussion.  Keep it apples to apples.

 

We should feel confident they'll be comfortably under 60M when the season starts.



#11 dude

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Posted 10 October 2019 - 10:10 PM

No chance we non-tender him. Seems unfathomable to me. Not sure why everyone is running with that.

 

Maybe they are doing it to create the perception that not tendering is an option so when they tender him they seem so smart.






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