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BSL: Should the Orioles trade Mancini?


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#1 BSLRobShields

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Posted 17 September 2019 - 07:50 AM

https://www.baltimor...-trade-mancini/


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#2 Mike B

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Posted 17 September 2019 - 08:56 AM

https://www.baltimor...-trade-mancini/

Good read.  I have a hunch that we are going to find the value offered, is going to be less than Treys current actual value to the team.

 

I am also not interested in 4 years down the road return.  We have had 2 years of unwatchable baseball. I am done with that.


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#3 weird-O

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Posted 17 September 2019 - 09:12 AM

Good read.  I have a hunch that we are going to find the value offered, is going to be less than Treys current actual value to the team.

 

I am also not interested in 4 years down the road return.  We have had 2 years of unwatchable baseball. I am done with that.

To be fair, this was the only season the O's expected to be bad. Last season was predictable, but not intentional. The good days are likely to still be 2-3 years off. 


Good news! I saw a dog today.


#4 weird-O

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Posted 17 September 2019 - 09:14 AM

Rob and I have been on the same page about Trey. I know it's not a popular opinion, but I still view moving Trey as a better approach than extending him.  


Good news! I saw a dog today.


#5 BSLSteveBirrer

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Posted 17 September 2019 - 09:42 AM

I think it boils down to the value of the return you get compared to the value of keeping Trey around several more years. I am not real keen on extending him but not opposed to it either for a team friendly contract.

 

And I agree with Mike B. I think we won't get the return we need compared to his current value.



#6 BSLRobShields

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Posted 17 September 2019 - 10:36 AM

Good read.  I have a hunch that we are going to find the value offered, is going to be less than Treys current actual value to the team.
 
I am also not interested in 4 years down the road return.  We have had 2 years of unwatchable baseball. I am done with that.


Mancini has had a very good offensive year and the team will be lucky to win 55 games.

Do you think having him makes this team that much more watchable that you don’t trade him if the value is good?
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#7 Mike B

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Posted 17 September 2019 - 10:51 AM

Mancini has had a very good offensive year and the team will be lucky to win 55 games.

Do you think having him makes this team that much more watchable that you don’t trade him if the value is good?

If the value is good then you certainly trade, but and this, is just my opinion, I do not want 18 year old kids who maybe 4 or 5 years away, because I am tired of watching players who do not belong in the major leagues.


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#8 DuffMan

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Posted 17 September 2019 - 11:17 AM

Mancini has had a very good offensive year and the team will be lucky to win 55 games.

Do you think having him makes this team that much more watchable that you don’t trade him if the value is good?

Saturday night the Birds were down by two in the 8th when I happened to flip the game on.  I saw them get two runners on with Mancini coming up to bat.   Most of the other hitters on the team I would expect an out and the end of the inning, but with Trey up I felt like they had a chance.  Sure enough he hit a 3 run bomb.  Now obviously that doesn't happen everytime, but I love his approach at the plate and even when he doesn't come through I don't feel like he's going to just give an out away.  You might say that I enjoy watching him hit. 

 

Could he help the team more by being dealt, possibly but I rather the O's keep him.


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#9 bmore_ken

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Posted 17 September 2019 - 12:15 PM

NO



#10 bmore_ken

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Posted 17 September 2019 - 12:18 PM

If the value is good then you certainly trade, but and this, is just my opinion, I do not want 18 year old kids who maybe 4 or 5 years away, because I am tired of watching players who do not belong in the major leagues.

Agreed



#11 BSLRobShields

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Posted 17 September 2019 - 12:21 PM

NO


Would you have said no last year?
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#12 bmore_ken

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Posted 17 September 2019 - 01:45 PM

Would you have said no last year?

Sure would have



#13 Slidemaster

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Posted 17 September 2019 - 04:23 PM

You trade any and everyone if the return is high enough.

#14 dude

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Posted 17 September 2019 - 06:06 PM

The only conversation should be around Mancini's role in whatever it is you want to do.

 

The approach to a player isn't centered around trade value or what you get in return, it should always be centered on what you view the role for that player is on the team.

 

If he's part of what you want to do...why are you trading him?

If he doesn't fit...then you consider the return.

The return should also be aligned against what you're trying to do.  He should be a quality trade chip so you should use quality chips (not what they did with the '18 deadline trades) to target players that fit whatever you want to do.  

If you're 'now' plan is locked up, then it's entirely reasonable to use Mancini's value for building system depth.

 

It shouldn't be random or theory based, it should be intentional.

 

The first question you have to answer is the status of Davis.  If he gets released (3/51 plus the deferred money) that changes what you may consider doing with him or what you'd be looking for in return.  Hard to believe they'd just leave him on the bench.

 

You also have Mountcastle and Nunez (imo, should not be an everyday plan at 3B) that you have to consider.  Stacking everyone on the roster only means you lose value on the players that aren't routinely contributing.

 

Davis at 1B, Mancini at DH/1B, Mouncastle in LF and Nunez at 3B seems like the least valuable thing (for winning) you could do.

 

You also have to decide if you care about winning.  I don't see any reason to believe they do or they are constructing a roster for it (at least in 2020) so there that.

---------------

 

I'm OK keeping him (part of a plan).

I'm OK extending him (part of a plan).

I'm OK trading him for current assets (part of a plan)

I'm OK trading him for future assets (because there's some other plan)

I've got plans where I keep him and plans where I'd trade him.  I'd need macro intent to be specific...but it's not an independent act, it's an intentional one in the context of the rest of the projected roster (again, based on an intent)

 

About the only thing I'm against is trading him for 'value' because you think you need to trade him for value.  Stacking another AA RHer or LHer and a AA OFer that don't move the needle now or later in terms of winning (versus what you already have) would seem the only useless thing to do.



#15 hallas

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Posted 17 September 2019 - 06:28 PM

He's under control for 3 more years, if I'm not mistaken.  I believe that if you trade him, you're punting your next competitive window to 2023 at the earliest.  If we keep him, I believe we are starting to develop the farm to possibly start competing in 2021. Given the uncertainty around developing prospects and the fact that we're borderline to start competing in 2021, I can certainly see the argument for trading him and seeing what you get back.  But it feels bad to do so and relegate your team to an additional 1-2 years of sucking.  I don't think I'd be terribly sad if i saw him traded if we got a solid return for him, but it would definitely be bittersweet.



#16 OldSchool

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Posted 17 September 2019 - 06:38 PM

NO

Agreed unless someone decides to overpay. Trading for a guy is cheaper than overpaying on a free agent.



#17 BSLRobShields

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Posted 17 September 2019 - 08:16 PM

He's under control for 3 more years, if I'm not mistaken.  I believe that if you trade him, you're punting your next competitive window to 2023 at the earliest.  If we keep him, I believe we are starting to develop the farm to possibly start competing in 2021. Given the uncertainty around developing prospects and the fact that we're borderline to start competing in 2021, I can certainly see the argument for trading him and seeing what you get back.  But it feels bad to do so and relegate your team to an additional 1-2 years of sucking.  I don't think I'd be terribly sad if i saw him traded if we got a solid return for him, but it would definitely be bittersweet.


You are greatly overrating him and the value of one player on a baseball team.


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#18 BSLSteveBirrer

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Posted 17 September 2019 - 08:59 PM

Dude, I understand your thought process and tend to agree. However, there are still considerations beyond the plan as you put it.

 

For example, lets say you have a plan that includes Mancini as your 1B for the next five years (or whatever number). But some team comes along and offers you the moon for Mancini. Well then you take the trade and revise your plan.

 

Having a defined plan is certainly the correct approach but those plans also have to be very fluid and flexible.


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#19 hallas

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Posted 17 September 2019 - 11:02 PM

You are greatly overrating him and the value of one player on a baseball team.


The 3 wins he provides is still 3 wins we don’t have to find in 2021 or 2022 to field a competitive team. And a position we don’t have to fill.

I’m not sure how I can be greatly overrating him. If I’m greatly overrating him, then it would follow that I would be overrating our return for him. Am I both overrating him and also underrating the expected return? I could buy that I’m possibly overrating him, but if I am, it renders the question of whether the Orioles should trade Mancini somewhat inconsequential, because neither course of action would have the potential to move the needle much. If I’m underrating our potential return for him... I would just say that I hard disagree with that. 1B are starting to be undervalued in both the FA and trade markets, so I have no reason to think that Mancini won’t be as well.

#20 dude

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Posted 17 September 2019 - 11:11 PM

He's under control for 3 more years, if I'm not mistaken.  I believe that if you trade him, you're punting your next competitive window to 2023 at the earliest.  If we keep him, I believe we are starting to develop the farm to possibly start competing in 2021. Given the uncertainty around developing prospects and the fact that we're borderline to start competing in 2021, I can certainly see the argument for trading him and seeing what you get back.  But it feels bad to do so and relegate your team to an additional 1-2 years of sucking.  I don't think I'd be terribly sad if i saw him traded if we got a solid return for him, but it would definitely be bittersweet.

 

The presence of any one (or more) player(s) isn't what defines your ability or willingness to compete.

 

The Cubs could trade both Bryant and Schwarber this offseason and still have every intention of competing in 2020.

 

It's about your endstate (and that's, btw, more than just Talent), not whether one name is there or not.






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