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BSL: Ravens Season Outlook Roundtable


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#1 BSLMikeRandall

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Posted 06 September 2019 - 12:11 PM

BSL: https://www.baltimor...ook-roundtable/

 

Get ready for the start of the 2019 season as Chris, Gabe, and myself discuss the outlook, and expectations of our Ravens. Plus superlatives, and our Super Bowl picks.

 

Join in, give your answers to some of our discussion points.


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#2 Mackus

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Posted 06 September 2019 - 12:41 PM

Good stuff.

 

Agree that if Lamar can hit the numbers totals that you three seem to be predicting or expecting, that the offense and the team is going to be very good.

 

I think you are all a bit more optimistic than I'm feeling, but there is certainly tons of reason for optimism for this team overall and Lamar individually.  Going to be exciting to see what happens.


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#3 BSLRobShields

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Posted 06 September 2019 - 01:28 PM

Yea, you are all way more optimistic on Lamar than I am , especially in terms of his completion%.

 

If he is as good as you guys are saying, they win 12+ games.


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#4 ravens82

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Posted 06 September 2019 - 01:50 PM

Ok, I'll bite.

 

1. Let’s address the polarizing debate right off the bat. Lamar Jackson. He’s got the electrifying ability to revolutionize the position, maybe earn a Pro Bowl nod on his terms. He’s also not your traditional pocket passer which some people find as a long-term problem and will make sure to highlight every single incompletion. Baltimore quarterbacks are looked at under the microscope because we watch every play. But let’s look big picture. What kind of stats does Lamar Jackson have to put up for you to believe he can succeed, without being traditional?

 

Lamar has to get his fumbles under control and needs to reach a 60% completion percentage to be an effective passer.  Since the team will be run-heavy, I think 4K total yards (passing/rushing) should be enough for a successful season.

 

2. How do you think Lamar Jackson actually does this year? Let’s play over/under.

 

61% completion percentage: OVER

3400 passing yards: OVER

800 rushing yardsOVER

24 passing TDs: UNDER

32 total TDsUNDER

18 turnovers: UNDER

60.0 QBR: OVER

 

3. Are you happy with the construction of the 53-man roster now that games that count are upon us? Do you have any areas of great concern?

 

I like the fact that the team has added young weapons to the offense that can grow and develop with Lamar.  There will be some growing pains, but there's also potential for true offensive excitement -- as a Ravens fan that is something new.  Overall, I think they made smart roster choices for now and for the future.

 

My biggest concern is pass rush.  There's a lot potential, but very little proven production.  Wink schemes up pressure well and the secondary is strong despite the loss of Tavon Young, BUT having to send extra players to get pressure will bite us against QBs who are able to read the blitzes and hit guys in single coverage vs. safeties and LBs.  Even though it's not the Ravens way, I wish we had gotten a proven edge rusher -- somebody like Justin Houston, who could still produce one-on-one vs. a good OL.

 

4. Give us your general thoughts on defense. No more Terrell Suggs, C.J. Mosley, and Eric Weddle. Enter Earl Thomas. Welcome back Pernell McPhee. Step up to the plate Kenny Young. Last year’s unit was second in points allowed, fourth in rushing defense, and fifth in passing defense. Given the turnover, do you think the Ravens can post another banner year on defense?

 

In terms of points/yards allowed, they should still be a Top 10 defense.  Maybe Top 5.  But what I'd really like to see is more turnovers; if Thomas returns to his ball hawking ways and Humphrey can continue his ascension, I think there's a chance.  One or two short fields per game would allow the offense to quickly build leads and win with a ball control approach.

 

5. Though possessing very different skill sets, which rookie wide receiver do you think has the best season? Marquise Brown, or Miles Boykin? What are your expectations of each? Also, the Ravens team site lists the rookies at the bottom of the depth chart. WRs 5 and 6. Are you buying that?

 

The depth chart is purely PR, I take it with a grain of salt.  I think Boykin and Brown will both have about 600-800 yards of production, but Boykin's production will be fairly steady, whereas I expect Brown to truly earn his "Hollywood" nickname in the second half of the season with big play moments.

 

6. Prognosticators have this team anywhere from as low as 7-9, to division champs. Finish these sentences:

 

The Ravens went 7-9 (or worse) because…_____.

 

Injury is the only reason we've had a losing season under Harbs.

 

The Ravens won the division because… _____.

 

Lamar Jackson's passing skills improved, Greg Roman was an unpredictable play caller, and the defense remained a top 10 unit.

 

I think the Ravens will end the season… _____.

 

10-6 and earn a playoff berth.

 

7. Hand out these superlatives.

 

Ravens Offensive POY:

 

Lamar Jackson.

 

Ravens Defensive POY:

 

Earl Thomas

 

Raven with the most to prove:  

 

Definitely one of Tim Williams or Tyus Bowser.  This is their time to play like a Raven and earn another contract.  Or get cut next year.

 

Raven poised to breakout:

 

Mark Andrews.  In line to be the next Heap/Pitta.

 

Ravens unsung hero:

 

Patrick Onwuasor - I think Peanut steps in and the Ravens D doesn't miss a beat.  Big, big deal at a key defensive position for the Ravens.

 

NFL Off. POY:

 

Patrick Mahomes

 

NFL Def. POY:

 

Bradley Chubb

 

Super Bowl LIV:

 

Rams vs. Chiefs


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#5 jkough1

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Posted 06 September 2019 - 02:01 PM

Yea, you are all way more optimistic on Lamar than I am , especially in terms of his completion%.

 

If he is as good as you guys are saying, they win 12+ games.

 

Curious, if his accuracy shows to be much better in Miami, whether that's schemed to simpler throws or just better throws all around, would that have any weight in changing your mind?

I know you say that nothing will make you feel better in the first 2 weeks but to me this is one of the areas you're going to see if he can keep his mechanics in a real game or not. 

 

If he were to say throw 95% of his throws generally accurately, that would have to move the needle some for you. As it seems from your posting, and correct me if this is off, his accuracy, fumbles and injury risk are your three biggest concerns, right? (I don't think we'll see anything good from Miami that makes you worry less about fumbles, which is why I left that out, but there is plenty of room if there are some to still be very concerned there). 



#6 85Knight

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Posted 06 September 2019 - 02:15 PM

Curious, if his accuracy shows to be much better in Miami, whether that's schemed to simpler throws or just better throws all around, would that have any weight in changing your mind?

I know you say that nothing will make you feel better in the first 2 weeks but to me this is one of the areas you're going to see if he can keep his mechanics in a real game or not.

If he were to say throw 95% of his throws generally accurately, that would have to move the needle some for you. As it seems from your posting, and correct me if this is off, his accuracy, fumbles and injury risk are your three biggest concerns, right? (I don't think we'll see anything good from Miami that makes you worry less about fumbles, which is why I left that out, but there is plenty of room if there are some to still be very concerned there).


What's funny is people talk about Lamar's inaccuracy throwing the ball deep when he only attempted 24 passes over 15 yds. completing 8 of them. That's a 3 attempts and 1 completion average over his 8 games. Yet people have drawn all of these conclusions about him despite such a small sample size very early in his career. It really makes me wonder why some people aren't even giving him a chance after seeing so little of what he can do. Basing his potential on those 8 games seems really silly to me.

#7 jkough1

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Posted 06 September 2019 - 02:38 PM

What's funny is people talk about Lamar's inaccuracy throwing the ball deep when he only attempted 24 passes over 15 yds. completing 8 of them. That's a 3 attempts and 1 completion average over his 8 games. Yet people have drawn all of these conclusions about him despite such a small sample size very early in his career. It really makes me wonder why some people aren't even giving him a chance after seeing so little of what he can do. Basing his potential on those 8 games seems really silly to me.

 

I totally agree the sample sizes really throw stuff out of whack, I made that point when the Sharp vs whoever argument came out about pass accuracy.

 

That being said, I actually worry about the 1-5 yards and the behind the LOS throws. If he can tighten those up, he's a real threat. The deeper throws come on more developed plays and the longer a play goes, the more of a threat Lamar is both on the ground and in the air. So his accuracy on those means even a little bit less to me, personally. 



#8 BSLRobShields

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Posted 06 September 2019 - 06:35 PM

Curious, if his accuracy shows to be much better in Miami, whether that's schemed to simpler throws or just better throws all around, would that have any weight in changing your mind?
I know you say that nothing will make you feel better in the first 2 weeks but to me this is one of the areas you're going to see if he can keep his mechanics in a real game or not. 
 
If he were to say throw 95% of his throws generally accurately, that would have to move the needle some for you. As it seems from your posting, and correct me if this is off, his accuracy, fumbles and injury risk are your three biggest concerns, right? (I don't think we'll see anything good from Miami that makes you worry less about fumbles, which is why I left that out, but there is plenty of room if there are some to still be very concerned there). 


Literally nothing can happen the first 2 weeks to get me overly excited about any aspect of the team outside of some of the roomies having good individual performances.
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#9 BSLRobShields

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Posted 06 September 2019 - 06:37 PM

What's funny is people talk about Lamar's inaccuracy throwing the ball deep when he only attempted 24 passes over 15 yds. completing 8 of them. That's a 3 attempts and 1 completion average over his 8 games. Yet people have drawn all of these conclusions about him despite such a small sample size very early in his career. It really makes me wonder why some people aren't even giving him a chance after seeing so little of what he can do. Basing his potential on those 8 games seems really silly to me.


1) The lack of throws down field is actually a problem. Shows they didn’t trust him to throw them, he didn’t wait for plays to develop or he just missed guys.

2) It is moronic for anyone to think that any judgement of Lamar is only based off of 8 games. I’m pretty sure you haven’t listened to one actual argument. You are just the type of person who reads what they want to read and just misrepresents peoples points.
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#10 BSLRobShields

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Posted 06 September 2019 - 06:39 PM

Curious, if his accuracy shows to be much better in Miami, whether that's schemed to simpler throws or just better throws all around, would that have any weight in changing your mind?
I know you say that nothing will make you feel better in the first 2 weeks but to me this is one of the areas you're going to see if he can keep his mechanics in a real game or not. 
 
If he were to say throw 95% of his throws generally accurately, that would have to move the needle some for you. As it seems from your posting, and correct me if this is off, his accuracy, fumbles and injury risk are your three biggest concerns, right? (I don't think we'll see anything good from Miami that makes you worry less about fumbles, which is why I left that out, but there is plenty of room if there are some to still be very concerned there). 


Ball security in general (including INTs) and accuracy are far and away my biggest concerns.

I have concerns over his health because of the running but, to be fair, he has never been an injury prone guy. Kind of has to show it first which is why it’s not nearly as concerning to me as the other things. But yes it is a concern overall.
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#11 cprenegade

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Posted 06 September 2019 - 07:29 PM

Actually taking the over on 61% and the over on 3400 yards kind of goes against each other.  Based on his career at Louisville and what we saw last year, if he is to complete over 61% a lot of them will be on short throws.  If that is the case it will be hard to get to 3400 yards with those types of throws.  His history says he will not be over 61% if they open it up with more intermediate/deep throws.  He never was in college or last year.  So if I were a betting man, I would not bet both over.  



#12 cprenegade

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Posted 06 September 2019 - 07:55 PM

What's funny is people talk about Lamar's inaccuracy throwing the ball deep when he only attempted 24 passes over 15 yds. completing 8 of them. That's a 3 attempts and 1 completion average over his 8 games. Yet people have drawn all of these conclusions about him despite such a small sample size very early in his career. It really makes me wonder why some people aren't even giving him a chance after seeing so little of what he can do. Basing his potential on those 8 games seems really silly to me.

 

That's probably because his accuracy issues were a big part of the scouting report on him coming out of college.  If he had the accuracy of some of the other QBs with his dynamic running abilities he never would have lasted until the last pick of the first round.  Kyler Murray went number one, not because of his running ability, but because he could combine it with a 69% completion percentage coming out of college.  The knock on Jackson out of college was always about his passing accuracy.  Of course he can get better, the question is will he.  It's up to him to prove that he can.  



#13 85Knight

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Posted 06 September 2019 - 11:16 PM

That's probably because his accuracy issues were a big part of the scouting report on him coming out of college. If he had the accuracy of some of the other QBs with his dynamic running abilities he never would have lasted until the last pick of the first round. Kyler Murray went number one, not because of his running ability, but because he could combine it with a 69% completion percentage coming out of college. The knock on Jackson out of college was always about his passing accuracy. Of course he can get better, the question is will he. It's up to him to prove that he can.


Lamar never had to concentrate on that aspect of his game because he was always the best athlete on the field. He's definitely a work in progress but he's getting a whole different level of coaching now. We might not ever see Drew Brees' accuracy but he has the tools and work ethic to show a lot of improvement moving forward. The Ravens saw something in him and that's all that matters and from what we've heard he's heading in the right direction.
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#14 cprenegade

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Posted 07 September 2019 - 01:43 AM

Lamar never had to concentrate on that aspect of his game because he was always the best athlete on the field. He's definitely a work in progress but he's getting a whole different level of coaching now. We might not ever see Drew Brees' accuracy but he has the tools and work ethic to show a lot of improvement moving forward. The Ravens saw something in him and that's all that matters and from what we've heard he's heading in the right direction.

 

You're kind of making my point though.  I can't remember somebody who didn't throw all that well in college coming to the NFL and suddenly getting that much better.  There were plenty of great athletic QBs in college over the years who didn't make much of themselves in the NFL.  Turner Gill for Nebraska is one that comes to mind.   I agree that Jackson's work ethic is great, everything you want from a player.  I am just skeptical about whether he will ever be a good passer in this league.  No doubt he can prove me wrong.  But when I look back at all the QBs that have won superbowls and become great QBs, almost all of them were great passers in college.  I just think it is really tough to improve on that aspect of your game when you get to the NFL.  I'm not saying he can't or he won't.  This year will go a long way to proving the point one way or the other.   Drew Brees accuracy is expecting way to much of anyone, but better accuracy than last year is a must.  After this year we will know a lot more.  



#15 85Knight

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Posted 07 September 2019 - 07:08 AM

You're kind of making my point though. I can't remember somebody who didn't throw all that well in college coming to the NFL and suddenly getting that much better. There were plenty of great athletic QBs in college over the years who didn't make much of themselves in the NFL. Turner Gill for Nebraska is one that comes to mind. I agree that Jackson's work ethic is great, everything you want from a player. I am just skeptical about whether he will ever be a good passer in this league. No doubt he can prove me wrong. But when I look back at all the QBs that have won superbowls and become great QBs, almost all of them were great passers in college. I just think it is really tough to improve on that aspect of your game when you get to the NFL. I'm not saying he can't or he won't. This year will go a long way to proving the point one way or the other. Drew Brees accuracy is expecting way to much of anyone, but better accuracy than last year is a must. After this year we will know a lot more.


I've told you before that that there are two different conversations going on. I don't think you're in that other camp.

Is Lamar a great athlete that they are trying to turn into a qb or is he a qb who happens to be a great athlete? The Ravens absolutely believe the latter and if they're right he'll be a very dangerous qb in this league for a long time. The college stats argument has been debunked over and over again and last year was a tall task and he still did ok. Let's see where he is this year before we come out with these absolutes about what he can't do. That's the only logical way to look at this.

#16 DWinsChampionships

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Posted 07 September 2019 - 07:38 AM

I've told you before that that there are two different conversations going on. I don't think you're in that other camp.

Is Lamar a great athlete that they are trying to turn into a qb or is he a qb who happens to be a great athlete? The Ravens absolutely believe the latter and if they're right he'll be a very dangerous qb in this league for a long time. The college stats argument has been debunked over and over again and last year was a tall task and he still did ok. Let's see where he is this year before we come out with these absolutes about what he can't do. That's the only logical way to look at this.

This article agrees with your assessments of Lamar Jackson. It incorporates history, film study and outright facts to counter the naysayers. It is the best and most informative article I’ve read about our still-rookie QB. Yes, I consider Jackson a rookie until he plays a full 16 games in the NFL.

https://presnapreads...nfair-standard/

#17 85Knight

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Posted 07 September 2019 - 08:18 AM

This article agrees with your assessments of Lamar Jackson. It incorporates history, film study and outright facts to counter the naysayers. It is the best and most informative article I’ve read about our still-rookie QB. Yes, I consider Jackson a rookie until he plays a full 16 games in the NFL.

https://presnapreads...nfair-standard/


Excellent article. Lamar will never be able to overcome those types of biases but the descriptions of what he does well as a passer are indisputable. I think the Ravens have rebuilt the receiving corps even though it might take some time to develop.

It's good to see that the Ravens are an organization that's willing to go against the norms and biases that exist around the league. Seeing how Josh Allen is perceived compared to Lamar is just crazy. I think it'll become very clear this year what people see in Lamar as opposed to those who are just out to make unfair judgements about him.

#18 BSLMikeRandall

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Posted 07 September 2019 - 08:31 AM

Same hack article in two different threads huh. Okay. I see what’s up.
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#19 BSLRobShields

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Posted 07 September 2019 - 08:33 AM

Same hack article in two different threads huh. Okay. I see what’s up.

To be fair, he posted it in this one...and then quoted me in the other thread and asked what I thought about it.

 

I don't think it was some intentional thing beyond that.


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#20 DWinsChampionships

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Posted 07 September 2019 - 08:44 AM


Same hack article in two different threads huh. Okay. I see what’s up.

One could say say the same about negative, hack analyses posted on multiple threads without objectivity. Just another point of view.




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