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2019 Game 1: 9/8 @Miami 1PM


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#1 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 30 August 2019 - 07:05 AM

Dolphins will be starting Fitzpatrick. 

 



#2 Mike B

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Posted 31 August 2019 - 09:50 PM

All the cuts have been made.   Lets play football and  go to Miami and stomp the Dolphins!


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#3 BSLJordanKough

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Posted 03 September 2019 - 02:31 PM

This game shouldn't be close or at least shouldn't feel close...

 

At first, I thought we might be kind of vanilla on defense but thinking about Fitzpatrick a bit more, I think they should just get right to their thing. I anticipate seeing at least one long broken play, potentially for a TD, and for the pass defense to be much better by the 4th quarter than it is in the first. 

 

I was going to list the things I'll be watching for the most but ultimately, I think we'll all be watching the same things. 

 

Run defense, Rob mentioned this. This is a combo of the OLB and SS positions and how they are used. Does someone step up as a pass rusher? Is LG a total liability? Who is the main look at the nickel? How do the Ravens split the RB carries. Those are all interesting and pretty standard questions. 

 

1. The Nickel Package. If this game gets out of hand early, I could see Clark and Elliott getting more time at NCB in this game. But I'm interested to see how much Big Nickel we really see and how it plays out. I also want to know which DL are going to be on the field for these plays. We anticipated Henry to be part of these packages. More of a role for Pierce? Is Ricard going to get meaningful DL snaps this year? So really not just who is taking nickel snaps early but how creative are the Ravens going to use the Nickel. 

 

2. How much TE action do we really see (and potentially Ricard at FB)? They could go a lot of different ways, but I'm curious to see how much X2X pacakges we see this year. Do they go 4 wide with two TEs this year? Do we see all three TEs on the field for a non-red zone play? Theoretically, you could have a TE/FB total package play, with Ingram in as RB and go jumbo on the first play and into a 2 RB shotgun look next. You could put Ricard as the RB and run a sweep power action out of a 3 TE split out set, too. How creative do we see the Ravens offense really get with these packages?

 

3. Who is active? Mack, a QB (is it McSorley or Rob), and 2 OL (Senat and one of the G players that don't start). But you need 3 more. You've kept Bethel (comp pick) and added Trawick and have Levine. All those guys are ST specialists. It's almost a crime to me if any of them are inactive. But who are the other three? C. Jones has his spot returning. I think Alaka is also probably not active but it sounds like he's got promise, but you still need to inactivate two more. Ultimately it seems like it's Scott (or Roberts if he's not healthy) and one of the ST aces. I guess it's safe to say, after looking at the math, I don't understand why we kept 12 defensive backs. 

 

Man...I am pumped though. I'm ready for this game. I really think the Ravens have something this year and that Lamar is going to step up. 


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#4 SportsGuy

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Posted 03 September 2019 - 03:07 PM

Nothing they do the first 2 week will get me thinking that I was way off on my 7-9 prediction.

In other words, even if they win 80-0 the first 2 weeks, I won’t be too high on them yet.

OTOH, they can do plenty to make me down on them and feel 7-9 is right on.

Have to win the first 2 weeks and Lamar needs to look good especially with Peterson out for Arizona.

#5 BSLJordanKough

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Posted 03 September 2019 - 03:44 PM

Yeah, I'm not taking anything away from wins and losses in these first 2 games. I'm curious to see a few areas settle down and how the Ravens approach some other things. But I'll be pretty disappointed if both wins don't come with what seem like sure handed wins. 

 

If we go the old Flacco route where we see terrible games against sub-level competition...I'll be pretty disappointed. 



#6 SportsGuy

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Posted 03 September 2019 - 04:13 PM

You should take away a lot if there are any losses in the first 2 weeks.
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#7 BSLJordanKough

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Posted 03 September 2019 - 04:35 PM

You should take away a lot if there are any losses in the first 2 weeks.

 

I don't think there will be losses, so I guess that's true. But...no I won't do that either. The upside is still there. ESPN published their FPI one season prediction example, the Ravens lost to Miami in this one, but still went 9-7. https://www.espn.com...s-all-267-games It was followed by losses to KC and Cle, too. Losses to Seattle, Houston, Rams but beating New England. With Pitt beating us in the last week to push us from 9-6 to 9-7. If we had won the Miami game in these predictions, there is only one surprise in that outcome, and we'd be 10-6. 

 

That seems totally reasonable to me. We will probably win one of the KC, Houston, LA, Seattle, NEP games, just because it'll be tough to lose all of them. And we'll find a way to lose one of the 2x Cin, Buf, Ari, Miami, SF games. I think these 10 games represent us going about 7-5 if we are just what we should expect. Plus the split in the Cle/Pitt series. 

 

Ultimately, if we're really good, we won't flop any of the 7 easier games on the schedule or we steal a few more of the quality wins against the really good opponents. 

 

To me, this team is one that will be much better at the end of the year, regardless of how they start (barring crazy injuries) than it will be at the end.

 

I'll give you this...if we lose both games...I'll be worried and take something away from it. 



#8 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 03 September 2019 - 04:48 PM

You should take away a lot if there are any losses in the first 2 weeks.


Normally I'd say this is hyperbolic, and that if they are upset in either of the first two weeks... they could pull an upset of their own later and be 'even', but I basically agree with you.

 

They have no business losing either game, and a loss in either game would likely be telling and prove detrimental later. 


One of the things you want to see Sunday is the Ravens immediately come out and put their foot on the Dolphins throat. 
Don't let them hang around.  Get out on them, take their will from them. 



#9 SportsGuy

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Posted 03 September 2019 - 04:54 PM

I don't think there will be losses, so I guess that's true. But...no I won't do that either. The upside is still there. ESPN published their FPI one season prediction example, the Ravens lost to Miami in this one, but still went 9-7. https://www.espn.com...s-all-267-games It was followed by losses to KC and Cle, too. Losses to Seattle, Houston, Rams but beating New England. With Pitt beating us in the last week to push us from 9-6 to 9-7. If we had won the Miami game in these predictions, there is only one surprise in that outcome, and we'd be 10-6.

That seems totally reasonable to me. We will probably win one of the KC, Houston, LA, Seattle, NEP games, just because it'll be tough to lose all of them. And we'll find a way to lose one of the 2x Cin, Buf, Ari, Miami, SF games. I think these 10 games represent us going about 7-5 if we are just what we should expect. Plus the split in the Cle/Pitt series.

Ultimately, if we're really good, we won't flop any of the 7 easier games on the schedule or we steal a few more of the quality wins against the really good opponents.

To me, this team is one that will be much better at the end of the year, regardless of how they start (barring crazy injuries) than it will be at the end.

I'll give you this...if we lose both games...I'll be worried and take something away from it.

These are 2 of the worst teams in the league. You have one at home and you are in a tough division with no guaranteed wins outside of maybe Cincinnati at home.

If you lose either of the first 2 weeks, that’s pretty horrible and doesn’t bode well for the season imo. If you want to be super optimistic, have at it but it’s not realistic to think positively about the team if you lose either of these games.

#10 SportsGuy

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Posted 03 September 2019 - 04:56 PM

And btw, the Ravens are introducing a “new offense”.

These teams aren’t supposed to know what’s coming yet..no time to scout, etc...

If they get stopped and/or the defense struggles vs subpar offenses, that is a really bad look.

#11 BSLJordanKough

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Posted 03 September 2019 - 05:10 PM

It doesn't bode well, and it's not a good look. Definitely bad optics and definitely not a great start to a narrative for the year. But none of those things determine where the team goes from there.

 

NEP was 1-2 after week three last year and lost to two teams that turned out to be 5-11 and 6-10. Brady was 40 and it very well could have been his decline. I'm not saying we're New England, but I am saying a two week sample size and a one loss to a bad team (that isn't going to be as bad as a bottom 2 team in the league) can happen in any given week. 

 

We got smoked last year by a terrible Bengals team in Week 2 and won the division. And we got smoked by a pretty mediocre Carolina team last year, too. Two losses that we probably shouldn't have had. 

Most teams will lose 1-2 games they shouldn't. And they probably should lose them on the road (we did both times last year). We're going to lose a game we shouldn't...but I won't worry about it until it happens the 2nd or even 3rd time. 

 

I'm just not going to read too much into these games wins or losses. If the play is just flat out putrid, so be it, that will worry me, but they could play like crap and win, too. Even bad NFL teams can show up on some days or some outright adjustments will need made with personnel that we might not know. Week 1 is actually the more likely time for us to shit the bed, but I guarantee you whether we go 7-9 or 10-6 there will be one game this year that we will just all be pissed because the Ravens bombed a game against a bad team and should have won. It's like a rite of passage every freaking year. (Also note, Ravens fans also lose their minds when these losses inevitably happen and say dumb things on 105.7 when it does). 


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#12 SportsGuy

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Posted 03 September 2019 - 05:18 PM

It’s a reasonable take but ignores too many things about this team, the schedule and the division.

It doesn’t mean the season is over but to sit there and say that losing either of these weeks doesn’t matter is extremely naive imo.

It’s fine to be a half full guy but acting like it’s no big deal is just wrong.

#13 BSLJordanKough

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Posted 03 September 2019 - 06:08 PM

We're getting to the hyperbolic extremes of the point I was trying to make where you're just trying to be right and me be wrong so if it makes you feel better to check me and say I'm wrong because I said it "doesn't matter". Great. You're right. 

 

I think there is enough talent and quality coaching on this team to get to 11-5 even with losing a bad game to a bad team. Mainly because I've already written one of those into the equation for how I look at this team. So if it's Week 1 or Week 2, that won't change for me. 



#14 BSLMikeRandall

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Posted 03 September 2019 - 10:56 PM

Have to go 2-0. Miami is in turmoil, traded away two starters. And you gotta beat the worst team in the league last year with a new coach, at home, and feast on rookie QBs the way they always have.

However the Ravens have a tendency to come out and gut their opponent in week 1, only to lay an egg in week 2. Got to avoid that.
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#15 SportsGuy

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Posted 04 September 2019 - 08:39 AM

Have to go 2-0. Miami is in turmoil, traded away two starters. And you gotta beat the worst team in the league last year with a new coach, at home, and feast on rookie QBs the way they always have.

However the Ravens have a tendency to come out and gut their opponent in week 1, only to lay an egg in week 2. Got to avoid that.

At least when they have done this before, I think most of the time the second game has been on the road.


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#16 Biggsy

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Posted 04 September 2019 - 06:21 PM

This whole, "new offense" that's supposed to be game changing scares me a little. Hope they dont go out trying to be cute and end up getting beat by the Dolphins week one. They might go 1-15 again, I dont want the Ravens to be that one win again.

Arizona is a little trickier. They have a new offense of their own. And if Kyler comes out as good as they claim he is, they could be a good challenge.

It should be 2 wins. But in todays NFL, you never know season to season, and even week to week.

#17 BSLJordanKough

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Posted 06 September 2019 - 01:09 PM

I'm not amped up like I was for the SD (both) and KC games last year but I am pretty amped up for Sunday. How is it only Friday??

 

I think it's going to be a rough day for Miami, I think we're going to get off to a fast start, the defense is going to confuse a bandaged together offensive line, and they aren't going to be able to slow down our run game at all. 



#18 Mackus

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Posted 06 September 2019 - 01:27 PM

I'm not a gambler, but Ravens -6.5 seems like a pretty enticing line.  



#19 SportsGuy

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Posted 06 September 2019 - 01:32 PM

I'm not amped up like I was for the SD (both) and KC games last year but I am pretty amped up for Sunday. How is it only Friday??

 

I think it's going to be a rough day for Miami, I think we're going to get off to a fast start, the defense is going to confuse a bandaged together offensive line, and they aren't going to be able to slow down our run game at all. 

I was thinking that the Ravens gaining 300 rushing yards wouldn't surprise me this week.

 

My only concern about this week is if they try and make Lamar throw the ball a lot more than he should, as they try to prove that he is more than just a running QB.  I THINK they are smarter than that and won't do that but against a lesser opponent, I worry that they try to get to cute.

 

But I don't think that will happen.  I am expecting for them to hold the ball for 35-40 minutes.

 

One thing I will say, no matter how much they win by, is if they don't generate a good pass rush this week (and next week...apparently people don't feel Kingsbury's offense will be good at pass protection), that I think it is a bad sign for the pass rush as a whole.  They need to beat the hell out of Fitzpatrick (and perhaps Rosen if he gets in).



#20 BSLJordanKough

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Posted 06 September 2019 - 01:39 PM

I don't think the Ravens will force him to throw if they don't need to. Hide it, don't give away the passing game plans. If you can hammer teams with 8 guys in the box and still run, just run the heck out of it and feed that four-man rushing attack. 

 

I think we'll throw a lot on first downs and run a lot on third downs. Being willing to do those things is going to really put some stress on opposing teams defenses. 

 

As for the pass rush, I agree, it's a concern if they don't get home. But I think Wink is an early favorite for the game ball. He'll be playing chess with Fitzpatrick with much better pieces than Dolphins will have to match. 






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