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How much do you care about 2019 pitching stats?


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#1 BSLRobShields

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Posted 19 August 2019 - 10:52 AM

As we all know, the homer numbers this year are absurd.  The speculation is that the baseball is different and that is a big reason for the rise in homers.  We also know that players are learning more about launch angles and things like that and are changing their swings.

 

How much will those numbers effect your evaluation of pitchers?  It has always been talked about that pitchers can control 3 things...strikeouts, walks and homers.  If the baseball is being screwed with, some of their ability to control the homer may have been taken away from them this season.

 

We don't know if MLB will do something about the baseball or not but there is enough blow back with how this season is going that I think they will.

 

Chris asked in a few threads about what you want the BP and rotation to look like.

 

A name I thought about was Chris Devenski.  I could see Houston DFA'ing him and obviously, there is a connection with Elias there.  His ERA is 4.8 but his K and BB rates are very good.  His HR rate is terrible.  Still, if the ball goes back to where it was, we could be looking at a sub 3 ERA reliever again.  

 

I think this is something to watch this offseason.  There may be some bargains out there as teams see guys who had "bad years".  

 

NOTE:  This is in no way a thread about the current Os pitchers.  We all know most of them are not ML worthy  and probably would be getting crushed either way, although a guy like Dillon Tate maybe wouldn't be giving up the homers he did with a normal ball.


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#2 BSLSteveBirrer

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Posted 19 August 2019 - 12:31 PM

I think baseball is losing its base. ESPN highlight reels, video games, even youth coaches are just all about the home runs. Seriously their are youth hitting coaches teaching kids launch angles.  Attendance is down across the board. Home runs are setting a record but so are strikeout. Its all about the instant gratification way society is heading.

 

Stolen bases, hit and run, bunting.....pretty much going the way of the dinosaur. 

 

So after that ranting my point is  that we have to evaluate pitching differently now than even a few years ago. Stats need to be looked at differently. But I also don't think baseball is going to change anything. The game is all about the home run now.


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#3 Mike B

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Posted 19 August 2019 - 12:33 PM

As we all know, the homer numbers this year are absurd.  The speculation is that the baseball is different and that is a big reason for the rise in homers.  We also know that players are learning more about launch angles and things like that and are changing their swings.

 

How much will those numbers effect your evaluation of pitchers?  It has always been talked about that pitchers can control 3 things...strikeouts, walks and homers.  If the baseball is being screwed with, some of their ability to control the homer may have been taken away from them this season.

 

We don't know if MLB will do something about the baseball or not but there is enough blow back with how this season is going that I think they will.

 

Chris asked in a few threads about what you want the BP and rotation to look like.

 

A name I thought about was Chris Devenski.  I could see Houston DFA'ing him and obviously, there is a connection with Elias there.  His ERA is 4.8 but his K and BB rates are very good.  His HR rate is terrible.  Still, if the ball goes back to where it was, we could be looking at a sub 3 ERA reliever again.  

 

I think this is something to watch this offseason.  There may be some bargains out there as teams see guys who had "bad years".  

 

NOTE:  This is in no way a thread about the current Os pitchers.  We all know most of them are not ML worthy  and probably would be getting crushed either way, although a guy like Dillon Tate maybe wouldn't be giving up the homers he did with a normal ball.

 

I care about pitching numbers because I do not think the game is very good right now.  I think the baseball is a big part of the problem, but I also think the trend to the new ideas like spin rate is having an effect too.  I think some of these ideas have hurt certain young pitchers

I think MLB will change the ball, but they will never admit to it.

 

I think the Orioles need to look out side the organization to find some veterans, with some upside, like Devenski, who can steady the ship, and hopefully be dealt when some of the rookies settle in.


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#4 Mike B

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Posted 19 August 2019 - 12:36 PM

I think baseball is losing its base. ESPN highlight reels, video games, even youth coaches are just all about the home runs. Seriously their are youth hitting coaches teaching kids launch angles.  Attendance is down across the board. Home runs are setting a record but so are strikeout. Its all about the instant gratification way society is heading.

 

Stolen bases, hit and run, bunting.....pretty much going the way of the dinosaur. 

 

So after that ranting my point is  that we have to evaluate pitching differently now than even a few years ago. Stats need to be looked at differently. But I also don't think baseball is going to change anything. The game is all about the home run now.

I wish I could like this post about 10 times.

 

The new ideas, have lessened the game, that I grew up watching.

 

Launch angle, spin rate, shifts...ugh.


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#5 mweb08

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Posted 19 August 2019 - 12:42 PM

I think baseball is losing its base. ESPN highlight reels, video games, even youth coaches are just all about the home runs. Seriously their are youth hitting coaches teaching kids launch angles. Attendance is down across the board. Home runs are setting a record but so are strikeout. Its all about the instant gratification way society is heading.

Stolen bases, hit and run, bunting.....pretty much going the way of the dinosaur.

So after that ranting my point is that we have to evaluate pitching differently now than even a few years ago. Stats need to be looked at differently. But I also don't think baseball is going to change anything. The game is all about the home run now.


I don't this is about instant gratification. I think this is about winning.

Decades of statistical analysis have led to this point. Where I do agree is that even though it makes sense to approach the game the way they are, it is not as entertaining as it was.

#6 BSLRobShields

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Posted 19 August 2019 - 01:18 PM

Yea, this is being done because it makes sense, stats wise.

 

Its like watching the NBA.  You watch teams hoist 30 3s a game and make 35-40%.  Far lower percent shot than we saw in the past but it makes sense in a lot of ways.

 

But this isn't really about how the game is played...its more about how much of it will change how we evaluate pitchers in terms of who you trade for, sign, etc...?


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#7 Ricker Says

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Posted 19 August 2019 - 01:20 PM

I think this is a great point and something to potentially exploit. 

 

My question is though, is this higher run environment/juiced ball - bad for baseball? What evidence is there to suggest that it is, even if purists don't love it. 


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#8 BSLRobShields

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Posted 19 August 2019 - 01:26 PM

I think this is a great point and something to potentially exploit. 

 

My question is though, is this higher run environment/juiced ball - bad for baseball? What evidence is there to suggest that it is, even if purists don't love it. 

https://awfulannounc...rket-teams.html

 

TV ratings down a little.  Attendance is down some but that has been the case the last 4 years as well.

 

So, maybe its effecting some things but I am sure some of that drop has to do with several other factors as well.


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#9 weird-O

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Posted 19 August 2019 - 01:31 PM

My M-I-L really, really dislikes baseball. She makes it a point to tell me that, every time I see her. One night, she decided to sit down and watch a WS game with me. She said I want you to tell me why you like this game so much. Eventually there was a situation where  a runner was on 1st, and the pitcher kept throwing over to 1B. She asked me why he kept doing that, why doesn't he just pitch to the hitter. I explained that the throw to first wasn't really about catching the runner off the bag. The real reason was because he wanted to throw off the timing of the batter, if he could. And also explained that a fast runner on base can influence the type of pitches that can/can't be thrown in that situation. 

 

Her response, he should just pitch to the batter, this is boring. Then she got up and left the room.

 

That story tells me why baseball doesn't resonate with the same number of people that it once did. The strategy isn't interesting or captivating. If you don't know or care about that aspect of the game, all you're left with is a very slow moving sport that gets slower, the deeper into the game you get.      


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#10 BSLSteveBirrer

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Posted 19 August 2019 - 01:36 PM

As of today there are 10 hitters in all of baseball that have 20+ stolen bases.

 

There are north of 100 that have 20+ home runs.

 

The game is just different than even five years ago. Only each individual can decide for themselves if the direction baseball is headed is good or bad. But I can tell you what my wife just said about this...."I miss guys trying to steal. My favorite part of the game."


 



#11 BSLRobShields

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Posted 19 August 2019 - 01:50 PM

I will say this about how the game is played today...if you want some hidden value, continue to put money into players that make contact, play good defense, have speed, etc....Those guys just won't fetch the money.

 

Its like what KC did to win the WS or how the Orioles were so good.  Those teams built good pens.  Now, relievers are very expensive and the Os and Royals are really to thank for that.

 

Find the guys that are hidden values and go from there.

 

Take your failed starters and turn them into relievers..things like that.


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#12 DJ MC

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Posted 19 August 2019 - 03:06 PM

I don't this is about instant gratification. I think this is about winning.

Decades of statistical analysis have led to this point. Where I do agree is that even though it makes sense to approach the game the way they are, it is not as entertaining as it was.

 

While this is accurate from the playing and coaching side of things, I do think there is something to Steve's point in terms of the way Major League Baseball as a business organization is thinking. Of course, couching it in "these damn kids and their loud music" terms is absurd, considering people have been whining about home runs since the 20s, but MLB looks to be turning toward whatever get the most eyeballs on their product (and the ads) no matter how little it relates to the actual games.


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#13 mweb08

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Posted 19 August 2019 - 03:19 PM

While this is accurate from the playing and coaching side of things, I do think there is something to Steve's point in terms of the way Major League Baseball as a business organization is thinking. Of course, couching it in "these damn kids and their loud music" terms is absurd, considering people have been whining about home runs since the 20s, but MLB looks to be turning toward whatever get the most eyeballs on their product (and the ads) no matter how little it relates to the actual games.


This may be true regarding MLB and the baseballs.

Not so much regarding launch angle, etc.

So I think we're on the same page here.

#14 BSLSteveBirrer

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Posted 19 August 2019 - 03:51 PM

This may be true regarding MLB and the baseballs.

Not so much regarding launch angle, etc.

So I think we're on the same page here.

So you don't think that MLB players are making conscious effort to try and hit more home runs?



#15 mweb08

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Posted 19 August 2019 - 04:03 PM

So you don't think that MLB players are making conscious effort to try and hit more home runs?


I absolutely do. I thought that was clear.

That is not some instant gratification thing though, it's what statistically correlates to winning.

#16 BSLSteveBirrer

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Posted 19 August 2019 - 05:54 PM

I absolutely do. I thought that was clear.

That is not some instant gratification thing though, it's what statistically correlates to winning.

Ok we'll just disagree on the last part.  



#17 BSLRobShields

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Posted 19 August 2019 - 05:57 PM

Ok we'll just disagree on the last part. Think back a couple of years ago to Manny. How many times he came up and was clearly looking to hit a home run when the situation on the field called for a different approach. It was clear to me he cared more about getting to 40 than winning the game in hand.


I guess it just depends on how you want to look at it.

You want to put a negative spin on it.

The players are saying this is better for winning.

It would be like if there was a way to insure you get more PKs in soccer. It would probably make the game worse but likely adds to more wins.
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#18 mweb08

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Posted 19 August 2019 - 06:21 PM

Ok we'll just disagree on the last part.


Well teams have shifted the skills they seek and teach to try to get more homeruns. That's factual.

#19 mweb08

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Posted 19 August 2019 - 06:29 PM

I guess it just depends on how you want to look at it.

You want to put a negative spin on it.

The players are saying this is better for winning.

It would be like if there was a way to insure you get more PKs in soccer. It would probably make the game worse but likely adds to more wins.


The players are saying that this is better for winning because that's what they've been told. They didn't do the statistical analysis.

And now that I see Steve's original quote, well some guys may seem like they're swinging for the fences when they shouldn't be and some actually are, but that's nothing new at all, and for some it may make more sense than to swing differently than they normally do based on the situation.

#20 Mike B

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Posted 19 August 2019 - 08:40 PM

I guess it just depends on how you want to look at it.

You want to put a negative spin on it.

The players are saying this is better for winning.

It would be like if there was a way to insure you get more PKs in soccer. It would probably make the game worse but likely adds to more wins.

Players for the most part are going to say what management wants to hear.   I have heard others, outside the lines question spin rate launch angle etc.

IMO, the game is not good now.


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