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Tavon Young done for the year?


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#21 BSLMikeRandall

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Posted 21 August 2019 - 10:46 PM

I don’t think they were wrong either.

As for your correlation point...why even mention that? Do you think that is a valid point?

Injury prone guys have injuries all throughout their body. The key here is that he has now missed 2 full years (assuming he misses this year). He has now been in the league 4 years. If you have missed half your time in the league due to injury, that’s a hell of a lot different than someone who has the occasional hamstring pull or sprained ankle or something like that.

These are major, career altering injuries. These are the types of injuries where when he comes back, he may not be the same player ever again. That’s an issue.

Like you said, the contract isn’t some prohibitive terrible thing. But if this keeps up, it will certainly be a complete bust of a deal and it will certainly be a black mark on the cap.

If he was heading into his FA year, would I be weary about giving him a large contract, after an ACL and a neck injury? Absolutely. But the Ravens were proactive in extending him after a great year coming off a major injury. Before he got offered an extension he wasn't "injury prone" or this wasn't happening "all the time" or whatever you want to say. 

 

I am concerned he might not be able to be as physical a player if he returns. Neck injury scares me far more than an ACL.

 

Still, the contract isn't some huge burden, even if his career is over. Worst case he goes on IR this year. In 2020 his cap number is $8M if he plays and $9.5M in dead cap if he then retires, if he's officially done. Most cap money Young would cost is $13.1M which is this years cap hit and next years dead money. $13.1M against the cap across two years and the guy doesn't play a down. Flacco costs $16M this year alone to play somewhere else. Having a QB at a bargain price you can win with helps in these situations.

 

Of course I don't think there is a correlation between his knee and his neck. I'm not looking at it in hindsight. It was sarcasm. 


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#22 Mackus

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Posted 22 August 2019 - 07:50 AM

You can literally make an All-Pro team out of players who have torn ACL, or had equally as major injuries. If you don’t take any risks, you will have a pretty awful football team.

 

Never said don't take risks.  In fact I said I very much supported the risk when it came to Tavon's contract and this possible injury doesn't make me think it was bad process to have given him that deal.  I simply think he represented a larger than standard risk from an injury standpoint at the time of signing his deal.  Frankly I don't see much room for disagreement with that opinion.



#23 BSLGabeFerguson

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Posted 22 August 2019 - 11:15 AM

He had played 31/32 games outside of the season he missed with an ACL. He played well after coming back from the injury. He was/is no more likely to be hurt than any other player in the league.

 

I think there are some players that could be considered an "injury risk", Tyler Eifert for instance, but the reality is stepping on a football field is the biggest risk any player takes and there is no way to foresee what happened with Young.


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#24 jkough1

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Posted 22 August 2019 - 11:18 AM

Never said don't take risks.  In fact I said I very much supported the risk when it came to Tavon's contract and this possible injury doesn't make me think it was bad process to have given him that deal.  I simply think he represented a larger than standard risk from an injury standpoint at the time of signing his deal.  Frankly I don't see much room for disagreement with that opinion.

 

I don't really know what my take on this is going to be but the implications of your post and others are that you can make a list of guys that you expect to be more likely to be injured on the roster than not based on past injury history. 

 

I'd be curious to see people who think there was more risk make that list for the 2019 season and then track it. I think the predictiveness of injuries outside a very few select guys is probably pretty hard to do in the NFL. 

 

I wonder if there is a study that shows correlation of a IR trip being more likely to make you have another IR trip in the future, too.

 

To me, this is like defenses getting "tired". Intuitively, sure it makes a lot of sense, but I wonder if the numbers when actually parsed out would show the same thing (I have no idea). 

 

Edit: I think it might be even more predictive that a long a guy hasn't been on the IR that he is more likely to be on the IR in the following season. But that's also age factored in, too. 



#25 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 22 August 2019 - 11:36 AM

I loved the deal for Young.  

In the current pass happy landscape, you basically have 3 starting db's... and need at-least 4 you feel good about. 

Young has shown to be highly athletic and effective in the slot.  

This injury is unfortunate, but even if it was a risk (and there is always risk); I think it was a worthwhile gamble. 
If he's out for the year, it's a tough loss for the team, even with a deep remaining secondary. 


There was a lot of complaining (with merit imo) that Ozzie often waited too long to sign extensions with young talent. This is part of the possibility of operating aggressively with extensions. 



#26 Mackus

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Posted 22 August 2019 - 12:57 PM

I don't really know what my take on this is going to be but the implications of your post and others are that you can make a list of guys that you expect to be more likely to be injured on the roster than not based on past injury history. 

 

No.  I do not think you can make a list of guys you think are more likely to be injured than to not be injured.  

 

I do think you can make a list of guys you expect to be more likely to be injured than the guys not on the list.  Differences between guys with an injury history and without.  You're not specifically predicting injuries for any one of them, just evaluating them as more injury prone or susceptible based on their histories.  For example, I think that Jimmy Smith and Tavon Young are guys - based on their histories as professionals - that I would say are more likely than the average CB to be injured.  Brandon Carr is a guy who is less likely to be injured than an average CB.  Humphrey is right around average.

 

And all NFL contracts (all sports contracts, for that matter) take that risk into account.  If Jimmy Smith was not a larger than average injury concern, he'd have gotten a lot more than the ~4/$41M he got in 2015.  The going rate for top level corners at the time was more than that in both years and dollars, IIRC.  Jimmy's contract was not a home-town discount, it was an accounting of how he has a higher than average injury risk.



#27 jkough1

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Posted 22 August 2019 - 12:59 PM

For example, I think that Jimmy Smith and Tavon Young are guys - based on their histories as professionals - that I would say are more likely than the average CB to be injured.  Brandon Carr is a guy who is less likely to be injured than an average CB.  Humphrey is right around average.

 

Yeah, I'd be interested to see someone do this for a whole team, and then see if the percentages on an annual basis matched up. 

 

Intuitively it seems like yes, this should be right. But I'm curious if the numbers actually would bear this out. 






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