They've never revealed how much of a scale factor the playing time is to the APY rank. There has to be a lower bound limit on it, because it's obviously not zero (if a guy misses the whole season, they still count in the math). Overthecap's projected cutoff for 3rd/4th is the 96th highest ranked player. CJ is really high up on the APY list with a $17M baseline. Looking at the projections, I think h'ed have to count for under $11M APY after the playing adjustment to slide down to a 4th round pick. So if the lower bound is 66% or lower, then he could be in danger of falling to a 4th.
I guess then Foles may drop down also. Except for the higher salary.