The 4th down attempt at mid field in the first half is the one that I think turned the game. And I know they have been doing that and making it all year long. I heard it during the broadcast, in the post game show, this morning.....yeah, yeah, yeah. Nobody is going to convince me that all those successful coaches that basically reject going on 4th down at that point in favor of playing field position are wrong. You are right when you say that it was just as bad as a turnover. That directly led to 7 points for Tennessee and that's when you could see Tennessee gaining confidence and the Ravens starting to panic. If the game plays out the same way without that short field, maybe the Ravens are only down 7-6 at half, and it would have never been more than a two score game. Maybe they wouldn't have felt they needed to abandon the run. I've said all year that consistently going for it nearly anywhere on the field was going to cost them one day and I feel it did last night. On the second one I would have taken the FG to cut it to 14-9, but at least that was deep in Tennessee territory. The first attempt was just plain stupidity, imo.
1. Most coaches will literally follow the definition of insanity straight into the grave of their career
2. The data says that going for it in that situation will work out most of the time
3. It had worked all year
I'm going to go with the fact that they should have done it. Not doing it is essentially the same logic as keeping Zach Britton in the bullpen because you never use your closer in a tie game on the road.