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BSL: The Strategy for Success in the Lamar Jackson Era


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#161 cprenegade

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Posted 08 September 2019 - 09:45 PM

I think somebody here has been reincarnated, if you know what I mean.  ;)



#162 85Knight

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Posted 10 September 2019 - 08:10 AM

To put Jackson’s day in context, we can take a look at the NFL’s Next Gen Stats, which build an expected completion percentage for each pass attempt based on the locations and movement of each of the 22 players on the field at the time the ball is thrown. If the Dolphins were just leaving receivers open for easy throws, we would see a high expected completion percentage for Jackson’s passes. Instead, Next Gen Stats projected that Jackson would have completed 60.2% of his throws on Sunday, which ranked as the sixth-lowest expected completion percentage for any quarterback in Week 1. In other words, Jackson actually faced a pretty difficult slate of throws across his 20 attempts.

Jackson instead completed 85% of his pass attempts, good for the largest gap between expected and actual completion rate during the opening week of the season. His completions were difficult, in part, because his average pass traveled nearly 12 yards in the air. His three incompletions included a narrowly overthrown bomb to Marquise Brown and a drop in the red zone by Willie Snead.

https://www.google.c...own-mark-ingram

This stat erases the "it was just the Dolphins" argument.

#163 Biggsy

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Posted 10 September 2019 - 06:20 PM

To put Jackson’s day in context, we can take a look at the NFL’s Next Gen Stats, which build an expected completion percentage for each pass attempt based on the locations and movement of each of the 22 players on the field at the time the ball is thrown. If the Dolphins were just leaving receivers open for easy throws, we would see a high expected completion percentage for Jackson’s passes. Instead, Next Gen Stats projected that Jackson would have completed 60.2% of his throws on Sunday, which ranked as the sixth-lowest expected completion percentage for any quarterback in Week 1. In other words, Jackson actually faced a pretty difficult slate of throws across his 20 attempts.

Jackson instead completed 85% of his pass attempts, good for the largest gap between expected and actual completion rate during the opening week of the season. His completions were difficult, in part, because his average pass traveled nearly 12 yards in the air. His three incompletions included a narrowly overthrown bomb to Marquise Brown and a drop in the red zone by Willie Snead.

https://www.google.c...own-mark-ingram

This stat erases the "it was just the Dolphins" argument.



He had a very clean pocket most of the day as well. He made the throws and I think he deserves credit for dropping the dimes in stride like he did. But he also had all day on most of his passes. I'm optimistic. Have been all offseason. I love the kid. I liked him a lot in college. I honestly believe he has everything he needs to be a superstar. He just needs to go out and put it together every week like he did last week.

He will undoubtedly fall back to earth this week. But if he goes out and completes 60%+ every week, and hits the big plays that matter most, Ravens will be a tough team to beat.

#164 BSLJordanKough

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Posted 10 September 2019 - 06:24 PM

He had a very clean pocket most of the day as well. He made the throws and I think he deserves credit for dropping the dimes in stride like he did. But he also had all day on most of his passes. I'm optimistic. Have been all offseason. I love the kid. I liked him a lot in college. I honestly believe he has everything he needs to be a superstar. He just needs to go out and put it together every week like he did last week.

He will undoubtedly fall back to earth this week. But if he goes out and completes 60%+ every week, and hits the big plays that matter most, Ravens will be a tough team to beat.

 

According to this article, the bolded wasn't true. https://www.espn.com...ntz-throws-dime

 

The passes he completed were not easy, based on the positioning of defenders and the distances the ball traveled in the air, and he was pressured on 36.4% of his passes, the sixth-highest rate in Week 1.

 

Who knows where they get those numbers from his percentage of pressure being 6th highest in the league given the results is helpful.

 

I'd personally need to go back and watch though, as I didn't feel he was pressured that much either.  That being said, it was only 20 attempts, so...



#165 Biggsy

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Posted 10 September 2019 - 06:36 PM

According to this article, the bolded wasn't true. https://www.espn.com...ntz-throws-dime


Who knows where they get those numbers from his percentage of pressure being 6th highest in the league given the results is helpful.

I'd personally need to go back and watch though, as I didn't feel he was pressured that much either. That being said, it was only 20 attempts, so...



I could be mis-remembering. Maybe he did face a lot of pressure. I know he made a play most couldnt on the Boykin TD. He extended that play on pure athleticism and made a phenomenal spot pass going backwards. Other then that I don't remember the dolphins getting a ton of pressure.

#166 Biggsy

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Posted 10 September 2019 - 06:37 PM

I will say, if I'm an opposing defensive coordinator, I'm running a lot of zone blitzes and cover 3.

#167 BSLJordanKough

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Posted 10 September 2019 - 06:43 PM

I will say, if I'm an opposing defensive coordinator, I'm running a lot of zone blitzes and cover 3.

 

Which we should be able to really attack on the ground if the single high stays deep. And a RPO attacking the right spot in the zone blitz neutralizes it quickly, too. But really that's the choice...



#168 BSLJordanKough

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Posted 10 September 2019 - 06:44 PM

I could be mis-remembering. Maybe he did face a lot of pressure. I know he made a play most couldnt on the Boykin TD. He extended that play on pure athleticism and made a phenomenal spot pass going backwards. Other then that I don't remember the dolphins getting a ton of pressure.

 

I don't really remember because every play was a total strike and home run but on the check downs where he was hitting the TEs in the flats, it's very possible those are the plays where he had pressure coming and got it out. That'd actually be really nice development for him. 

 

But also goes to show teams how they have to simultaneously bring pressure, get deep, and protect the edges. 



#169 BSLJordanKough

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Posted 10 September 2019 - 06:55 PM

I could be mis-remembering. Maybe he did face a lot of pressure. I know he made a play most couldnt on the Boykin TD. He extended that play on pure athleticism and made a phenomenal spot pass going backwards. Other then that I don't remember the dolphins getting a ton of pressure.

 

https://baltimorerav...five-touchdowns

 

Looks like on the Snead TD it was a 5-man rush and Bozeman was beat but LJ got the ball out. Pressure clearly on the Boykin TD. That 3rd and 14 conversion Bozeman was pushed back into Lamar. And Stanley was beat on the 3rd and 4 conversion that Baldinger showcased here as well. That's 4 pressures and ultimately that's 20% of Lamar's total throws...



#170 85Knight

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Posted 10 September 2019 - 07:14 PM

According to this article, the bolded wasn't true. https://www.espn.com...ntz-throws-dime


Who knows where they get those numbers from his percentage of pressure being 6th highest in the league given the results is helpful.

I'd personally need to go back and watch though, as I didn't feel he was pressured that much either. That being said, it was only 20 attempts, so...


Actually the stats do account for pressure or lack thereof. Next Gen Stats is an official stat producer for the NFL. They put devices in the players' uniforms and in the football as well as cameras in the stadiums to measure players' distances from each other and the ball speed. Lamar's expected 60% completions on those 20 passes was based on the actual amount of pressure he got and the coverage on the receivers. According to them his performance was even better than we thought.

http://www.nfl.com/v...pletions-Week-1

#171 BSLRobShields

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Posted 10 September 2019 - 08:49 PM

Cool stuff here

https://twitter.com/...9692797953?s=21
@BSLRobShields

#172 Mike B

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Posted 10 September 2019 - 09:04 PM

I thought  the Oline protected Lamar well.   Too much analysis.  Lamar was excellent.   Moving on to Arizona.

 

I cant wait for Sunday.  Go Ravens!


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#173 85Knight

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Posted 10 September 2019 - 11:14 PM

I thought the Oline protected Lamar well. Too much analysis. Lamar was excellent. Moving on to Arizona.

I cant wait for Sunday. Go Ravens!


I thought this thread was about the strategy for success in the LJ era. Just saying.

#174 BSLJordanKough

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Posted 11 September 2019 - 10:01 AM

I thought  the Oline protected Lamar well.   Too much analysis.  Lamar was excellent.   Moving on to Arizona.

 

I cant wait for Sunday.  Go Ravens!

 

I mean the stats didn't really reveal that and further review didn't either. He was definitely under pressure on more than 30% of his snaps. He stepped into some big time throws, had good pocket recognition and got the ball out. 

 

As for the too much analysis part, I mean...we're fans, what do you expect :)



#175 Mackus

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Posted 11 September 2019 - 10:16 AM

I mean the stats didn't really reveal that and further review didn't either. He was definitely under pressure on more than 30% of his snaps. He stepped into some big time throws, had good pocket recognition and got the ball out. 

 

As for the too much analysis part, I mean...we're fans, what do you expect :)

 

Is 30% a lot?  Is that only on dropbacks or all snaps?



#176 Mike B

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Posted 11 September 2019 - 10:22 AM

I mean the stats didn't really reveal that and further review didn't either. He was definitely under pressure on more than 30% of his snaps. He stepped into some big time throws, had good pocket recognition and got the ball out. 

 

As for hte too much analysis part, I mean...we're fans, what do you expect :)

My apologies, I didn't mean that as a shot.  I have now watched the game 2.5 times and I saw a lot of good things out of the Oline.  Bozeman pulled and created lanes at least 3 times.  Yanda, was Yanda, and Zeus 2 did well.

 

My issue, was Lamar was terrific.  I was hoping for a good start.  I got an MVP type start.  His velocity seemed much better, and he had the spiral working.

 

If Lamar can be 80% of what he was Sunday, he is going to be a star and we are going to have a hell of a lot of fun.

 

The offensive weapons the Ravens have is impressive.  The tight ends, may well be the best group in the league.


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#177 BSLJordanKough

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Posted 11 September 2019 - 10:29 AM

Is 30% a lot?  Is that only on dropbacks or all snaps?

 

6th highest in the league last week according to the same article...so I'd feel like that's a yes. 

 

And I assume it has to be drop backs given it's pressure to the QB.



#178 85Knight

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Posted 11 September 2019 - 10:29 AM

Is 30% a lot? Is that only on dropbacks or all snaps?


He was pressured the 6th most of the qb's week one according to their stats.

#179 BSLJordanKough

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Posted 11 September 2019 - 10:32 AM

My apologies, I didn't mean that as a shot.  I have now watched the game 2.5 times and I saw a lot of good things out of the Oline.  Bozeman pulled and created lanes at least 3 times.  Yanda, was Yanda, and Zeus 2 did well.

 

Didn't take it as a shot :). But...the run blocking was great, that's a good point. And it's a point of emphasis. Miami brought more pressure than it seemed and stacked the box a lot (we knew that from the passing results). 

 

Like you said, like on the Boykin TD, if Lamar can make a play like that happen 80% (I'd go down to 60% as an example) this team will be good. That was a classic play where he led the CB with his yes, knew there wasn't lurking help behind and threw to a spot where it was either going to be a TD or incompletion. It was a really really smart throw and really really smart catch, IMO because he threw it before Boykin broke. But Boykin had his eyes on Lamar the whole time, too...so they were in sync. 


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#180 Mike B

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Posted 11 September 2019 - 10:44 AM

Didn't take it as a shot :). But...the run blocking was great, that's a good point. And it's a point of emphasis. Miami brought more pressure than it seemed and stacked the box a lot (we knew that from the passing results). 

 

Like you said, like on the Boykin TD, if Lamar can make a play like that happen 80% (I'd go down to 60% as an example) this team will be good. That was a classic play where he led the CB with his yes, knew there wasn't lurking help behind and threw to a spot where it was either going to be a TD or incompletion. It was a really really smart throw and really really smart catch, IMO because he threw it before Boykin broke. But Boykin had his eyes on Lamar the whole time, too...so they were in sync. 

That play put me in mind of the Mahomes pass that beat us last year.  QB and receiver in perfect sync.  

I think the Ravens left a lot of clubs in the bag last week, scheme wise.  I am anxious to see more.


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