Photo

BSL: The Strategy for Success in the Lamar Jackson Era


  • Please log in to reply
210 replies to this topic

#201 BSLSeanJester

BSLSeanJester

    Restaurant / Travel Analyst

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 18,714 posts

Posted 30 September 2019 - 10:01 AM

If you're going to discount the numbers from Miami for Lamar, you need to do it for all NFL QBs who face Miami this year.

 

So...Tom Brady and Rivers also have just 5 TD and I am sure their other numbers take hits too.

 

Face it...Miami is still an NFL team that many teams will feast off of this year. Some teams will struggle to beat them and who knows, they even might win a game.

 

Lamar was perfect in that game, too. Perfect.


  • BSLMikeRandall likes this

I never had friends later on like the ones I had when I was twelve. Jesus, does anyone?


#202 BSLRobShields

BSLRobShields

    BSL Analyst

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 85,540 posts
  • LocationBaltimore

Posted 30 September 2019 - 10:03 AM

If you're going to discount the numbers from Miami for Lamar, you need to do it for all NFL QBs who face Miami this year.

 

So...Tom Brady and Rivers also have just 5 TD and I am sure their other numbers take hits too.

 

Face it...Miami is still an NFL team that many teams will feast off of this year. Some teams will struggle to beat them and who knows, they even might win a game.

 

Lamar was perfect in that game, too. Perfect.

Absolutely.  I would discount ALL numbers...defense, offense, individual players, etc...


@BSLRobShields

#203 BSLSeanJester

BSLSeanJester

    Restaurant / Travel Analyst

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 18,714 posts

Posted 30 September 2019 - 10:07 AM

Absolutely.  I would discount ALL numbers...defense, offense, individual players, etc...

 

Even in the game(s) they may win?


I never had friends later on like the ones I had when I was twelve. Jesus, does anyone?


#204 BSLRobShields

BSLRobShields

    BSL Analyst

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 85,540 posts
  • LocationBaltimore

Posted 30 September 2019 - 10:10 AM

Even in the game(s) they may win?

Against Miami?  Yes.

 

They aren't a representative NFL team.  If they cut every player on their team right now, I bet you don't even have 30 players that go to active 53 man rosters.


@BSLRobShields

#205 BSLChrisStoner

BSLChrisStoner

    Owner

  • Administrators
  • 114,540 posts

Posted 30 September 2019 - 10:16 AM

2 straight games where Lamar did nothing passing the ball through the first 3 quarters.

 

I think we need to discount the stats vs Miami.  They are total garbage and really aren't an NFL team at this point.

 

If you take game away, Lamar has a 61% completion% (thats about 4 points worse than his actual completion%).   His YPA is 6.9 (8.3 is his overall number).  To put that in perspective, Flacco (dubbed Capt Checkdown) was usually in the 6.5 area the last 5 years. He has 5 TDs and 2 INT.  (he has 10 passing TDs overall).  His QBR is 66.7 (74.8 overall) and his rating is around 90 (its 109 overall).

 

Now, I am really happy with those numbers even when you take away the Miami game and obviously, this doesn't include his running stats.  So, I am no way bashing him.  If he can be a 61% completion% guy, I will be pretty happy right now.  It needs to get better as he plays more but I would take that for 2019.  However, I do think we need to understand that we all got so excited after seeing him against Miami that we need to pull the reigns in some on him and still see that this is a guy with a lot to work on (which he knows and is seemingly doing).  

 

We also can't have him just putting up garbage 4thQ stats to make his numbers look better.  There is definitely some of that in this from the last 2 weeks.  He needs to be better earlier in the game.  


I don't see the need to take out the production against Miami; all that's needed is the realization that the Dolphins are horrible.Which was known before that game.  If you 'take out' the numbers against Miami, at year end you also discount what happens against the best defense the Ravens face. 

 

The larger point is what you showed though... that the numbers without the Miami game included, are what you should be looking for / expecting. Which is the level many of us expected. 

 

You can win games with Jackson and the offense playing like they have in Week 2-4 if the defense was holding up their end. 
With the defense being exposed right now, that's when you have more pointing to Jackson and the offense. 

Now instead of playing complimentary football,the offense has to go and lead and carry the roster...  and Jackson and the offense aren't ready to do that.  There isn't also reason to think the 2nd year QB, two 2nd year TE's, two Rookie WR's, etc should be ready to dominate the league. 

They've got enough talent offensively to be competitive, but not enough experience, etc to just go out and expect 30 points each week. 

 


 



#206 BSLRobShields

BSLRobShields

    BSL Analyst

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 85,540 posts
  • LocationBaltimore

Posted 30 September 2019 - 10:44 AM


I don't see the need to take out the production against Miami; all that's needed is the realization that the Dolphins are horrible.Which was known before that game.  If you 'take out' the numbers against Miami, at year end you also discount what happens against the best defense the Ravens face. 

 

The larger point is what you showed though... that the numbers without the Miami game included, are what you should be looking for / expecting. Which is the level many of us expected. 

 

You can win games with Jackson and the offense playing like they have in Week 2-4 if the defense was holding up their end. 
With the defense being exposed right now, that's when you have more pointing to Jackson and the offense. 

Now instead of playing complimentary football,the offense has to go and lead and carry the roster...  and Jackson and the offense aren't ready to do that.  There isn't also reason to think the 2nd year QB, two 2nd year TE's, two Rookie WR's, etc should be ready to dominate the league. 

They've got enough talent offensively to be competitive, but not enough experience, etc to just go out and expect 30 points each week. 

 


 

The only caveat to this is that they have done a lot in garbage time.  They had a chance in the KC game but still, some of that was garbage time.  The Snead TD was garbage time yesterday.

 

Lamar faced a good front but a decimated secondary and he didn't play well at least in the first 3 quarters.  That's a little disheartening.  Its not just his fault of course, just saying that he has to be better early, especially against a team with 3 of their top secondary members out.


@BSLRobShields

#207 BSLRobShields

BSLRobShields

    BSL Analyst

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 85,540 posts
  • LocationBaltimore

Posted 30 September 2019 - 10:46 AM


I don't see the need to take out the production against Miami; all that's needed is the realization that the Dolphins are horrible.Which was known before that game.  If you 'take out' the numbers against Miami, at year end you also discount what happens against the best defense the Ravens face. 

 

The larger point is what you showed though... that the numbers without the Miami game included, are what you should be looking for / expecting. Which is the level many of us expected. 

 

You can win games with Jackson and the offense playing like they have in Week 2-4 if the defense was holding up their end. 
With the defense being exposed right now, that's when you have more pointing to Jackson and the offense. 

Now instead of playing complimentary football,the offense has to go and lead and carry the roster...  and Jackson and the offense aren't ready to do that.  There isn't also reason to think the 2nd year QB, two 2nd year TE's, two Rookie WR's, etc should be ready to dominate the league. 

They've got enough talent offensively to be competitive, but not enough experience, etc to just go out and expect 30 points each week. 

 


 

You just can't get too excited about anything your team accomplishes against the Dolphins.


@BSLRobShields

#208 BSLRobShields

BSLRobShields

    BSL Analyst

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 85,540 posts
  • LocationBaltimore

Posted 30 September 2019 - 04:03 PM

Wonder how much the Miami game effects this but damn, this is a tremendous stat.

 

https://twitter.com/...7304762369?s=20


@BSLRobShields

#209 BSLJordanKough

BSLJordanKough

    Ravens Analyst

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 7,652 posts

Posted 30 September 2019 - 04:09 PM

Wonder how much the Miami game effects this but damn, this is a tremendous stat.

 

https://twitter.com/...7304762369?s=20

 

Not a lot of third downs for us in the Miami game, IIRC. Looking at the play by play, Marquise Brown TD, 3rd and goal TD to Boykin, 3rd and 7 to Andrews short of the sticks (before the fake punt), 3rd and 4 to Andrews, 3rd and 14 to Andrews, 3rd and 5 incomplete. 

 

So 5 of 6 passing for 120 yards and 2 TDs. Passer rating is convoluted but you'd have to assume it was significantly lower than that without it. 



#210 BSLRobShields

BSLRobShields

    BSL Analyst

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 85,540 posts
  • LocationBaltimore

Posted 30 September 2019 - 04:13 PM

Not a lot of third downs for us in the Miami game, IIRC. Looking at the play by play, Marquise Brown TD, 3rd and goal TD to Boykin, 3rd and 7 to Andrews short of the sticks (before the fake punt), 3rd and 4 to Andrews, 3rd and 14 to Andrews, 3rd and 5 incomplete. 

 

So 5 of 6 passing for 120 yards and 2 TDs. Passer rating is convoluted but you'd have to assume it was significantly lower than that without it. 

Yea but still, the overall number is so high that he probably still would have a really good rating on third down.  Also, Brady, Rivers and Prescott faced Miami and they aren't on there.


@BSLRobShields

#211 BSLJordanKough

BSLJordanKough

    Ravens Analyst

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 7,652 posts

Posted 30 September 2019 - 04:44 PM

This made me curious about how passer rating plays a role. 20 YPA with two TDs could really tip the scales there. I'm on board as saying Miami's outcomes still count and they weren't/aren't as bad as others have at times. Google and math are fun! 

 

https://medium.com/@...ts-54eb07246d1e

 

  • Formula 1: Take the completions/attempts, subtract .3 and multiply the result by 5.
  • Formula 2: Take the passing yards/attempts, subtract 3 and multiply the result by .25.
  • Formula 3: Take the touchdowns/attempts and multiply the result by 20.
  • Formula 4: Take 2.375 minus the result of interceptions/attempts multiplied by 25.

 

So according to pro football reference he's 20 for 27 with 3 TDs on 3rd down, zero INTs. The percentage only drops to 71% so that's helpful. But he's got 304 yards, that drops down to 120. 

 

1: 2.2 with, 2.07 without

2: 2.06 with, 1.44 without

3: 2.22 with, .95 without 

4: 2.375, 2.375 

 

NFL Passer Rating = The sum of the results of Formula 1, Formula 2, Formula 3, and Formula 4 divided by 6. That result is then multiplied by 100.

 

So his passer rating would be about 114. So still 7th best and still pretty good. 


  • BSLRobShields likes this




0 user(s) are reading this topic

0 members, 0 guests, 0 anonymous users

Partners