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Cashner traded to Boston


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#101 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 14 July 2019 - 06:18 PM

Cashner has a better ERA but Bailey's FIP and xFIP are better than his ERA...which is the opposite of Cashner.

I would guess Cashner would be viewed better but Bailey has been good lately. Our return was better than this.

Let ask this another way.

Would you rather have what we got or Ryan McKenna and Carroll?

I think that is what Cashner is worth...a guy ranked in the 15-20 range in an organization and another player with a chance to serve some kind of role player role on a team.

Im 100% fine with the return they got, but I'd prefer McKenna and Carroll.

Well..thats in a vacuum. I guess id take lotto tickets playing the longer game.

If we were closer, give me McKenna and Carroll.
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#102 bmore_ken

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Posted 14 July 2019 - 06:23 PM

So I haven't looked so its truly a straight question. What SP is likely to be available that is better than Cashner?

None at this point. In fairness I haven't looked either. The reality is, if there was a better offer than we got, that's where he would be. 



#103 dude

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Posted 14 July 2019 - 06:26 PM

I have no opinion on either player. Whether Elias and co did a good job scouting cannot be determined for a while.

 

Absurd.  McNulty already assessed this and has assured us they did a good job.  I'm already wrong.



#104 SportsGuy

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Posted 14 July 2019 - 06:31 PM

Im 100% fine with the return they got, but I'd prefer McKenna and Carroll.

Well..thats in a vacuum. I guess id take lotto tickets playing the longer game.

If we were closer, give me McKenna and Carroll.


Which is fine. I think McKenna is an organizational player with no value. Carroll has some upside as a potential piece in the pen but so far, he has given no indication that he will ever be any good.

I would rather get the guys that I think could be something vs guys I think are basically already nothing.

#105 dude

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Posted 14 July 2019 - 06:34 PM

Would you rather have what we got or Ryan McKenna and Carroll?

 

I think that is what Cashner is worth...a guy ranked in the 15-20 range in an organization and another player with a chance to serve some kind of role player role on a team.

 

I would take McKenna and Carroll 100 times out of 100 over 2 unrated DSL guys.



#106 SportsGuy

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Posted 14 July 2019 - 06:37 PM

I would take McKenna and Carroll 100 times out of 100 over 2 unrated DSL guys.


Ok, fair enough.

No issues if someone would prefer that deal.

I disagree but I can see why people would prefer it.

#107 dude

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Posted 14 July 2019 - 06:42 PM

Which is fine. I think McKenna is an organizational player with no value. 

 

I guess I view McKenna differently.  Right now he's the best CF prospect in the Organization.  I would view him in the bottom 3rd of the lineup (ie I would expect my top6 to drive the train).  I wouldn't trade him unless I had a better plan for CF.



#108 Mackus

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Posted 14 July 2019 - 06:50 PM

McKenna and Carroll for sure. Zero argument there. I don't think it's a fair question, though.

I was thinking someone like Carroll by himself as Cashner's comp. McKenna is close to or in our top 10, he's way more valuable than Cashner, IMO.

#109 McNulty

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Posted 14 July 2019 - 06:52 PM

Absurd. McNulty already assessed this and has assured us they did a good job. I'm already wrong.


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#110 SportsGuy

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Posted 14 July 2019 - 06:53 PM

McKenna and Carroll for sure. Zero argument there. I don't think it's a fair question, though.
I was thinking someone like Carroll by himself as Cashner's comp. McKenna is close to or in our top 10, he's way more valuable than Cashner, IMO.

McKenna is nothing.

He’s not worth more than Cashner.

#111 SportsGuy

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Posted 14 July 2019 - 06:54 PM

I guess I view McKenna differently.  Right now he's the best CF prospect in the Organization.  I would view him in the bottom 3rd of the lineup (ie I would expect my top6 to drive the train).  I wouldn't trade him unless I had a better plan for CF.


Hays is the best CF prospect in the organization.

#112 Mackus

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Posted 14 July 2019 - 07:13 PM

McKenna is nothing.

He’s not worth more than Cashner.

I don't think he's got more than a long chance of being a regular. But he's more valuable than Cashner, IMO.

I don't think Cashner had much value at all. Similar to Villar.

#113 BSLBobPhelan

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Posted 14 July 2019 - 07:25 PM

I think McKenna can be something. Very good defense in CF. I think the bat has potential to play. I’d use Sedlock in that comparison but I see your point Rob.

I agree Cashner is more valuable than Bailey but not by that much. I’m just saying I’ll take two lottery tickets over a guy who’s stock has fallen in an effort to restore it. At least with where we are at this point.

#114 dude

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Posted 14 July 2019 - 08:10 PM

Do you think Elias took a lesser deal to sabotage the organization or something?

 

My guess is it's probably a couple of things.

 

1. Sabotage is a negative word.  Nearly everyone here views losing as good (1-1).  If Cashner wins 2 more games before the deadline and you finish with the 2nd worst record by one game is that good or bad?

 

2. My guess is they are following an internal value model...none of these guys are absolute value of their value.  Boston needs a 5th starter terribly bad and they are fringe playoff right now.  Getting a reliable 5th starter has significant value to them.  That's not reflected in Cashner's WAR assessment (that's my second biggest issue with the other Trade Value model, it ignores the most significant reason trades are made).

 

3. When you add these guys, you don't have to do anything with them for while and they just sit there and improve your prospect depth (ranking).  They have no projection so you bring them along as slow as you want.  They don't get bumped out of your MiL assessment for 5-8 years.  When your goal is to have the #1 farm system (elite talent pipeline), these guys (if they wind up good) count for you for a long time.  When you get a guy like Merrell, he'll push for playing time (even in a utility role and force his way out of your prospect ranking long before 2 DSL 17 year olds.....of course this piece doesn't mean you couldn't just get more (them+) out of Boston.



#115 Ricker Says

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Posted 14 July 2019 - 08:13 PM

I want to see a ton more urgency in getting us to contention. But I also want to be set up to contend regularly. And lastly, Cashner just wasn't all that valuable. So this doesn't seem like the trade to hang those statements on. If they continue to target kids several years away from contending, I'm not just going to blindly follow this FO.
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#116 SportsGuy

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Posted 14 July 2019 - 08:42 PM

I want to see a ton more urgency in getting us to contention. But I also want to be set up to contend regularly. And lastly, Cashner just wasn't all that valuable. So this doesn't seem like the trade to hang those statements on. If they continue to target kids several years away from contending, I'm not just going to blindly follow this FO.


I think it depends on the player that is several years away and how you define “several years”.

For example, Wander Franco is only in A ball but obviously you would take him.

The guy the Yankees just signed as the best Intl FA, you would take him as well.

Would you be upset if we traded Mancini and got back a guy like Grayson Rodriguez? Few years away but a top 50
Guy.

For me, I don’t mind these trades for the mediocre players like Cashner and villar.

If this is what we are getting for Mancini or even Givens, I would be upset.

#117 BSLMikeLowe

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Posted 14 July 2019 - 11:37 PM

Regardless of where you fall on the merits of this trade, this deal is about as remarkable as what we saw on July 2. Never mind just signing Latin American players....that the Baltimore Orioles are also scouting, evaluating and trading for other teams' DSL players is a concept I never conceived of.


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#118 weird-O

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Posted 15 July 2019 - 07:46 AM

Cashner has been an average pitcher for his career. Elias wasn't likely getting any more substance which is why I think the trade was made so soon. Either way, both of these guys might make it, one might make it, or neither might make it. The one thing we know for sure is Cashner wasn't going to be here next year, so you're literally not losing anything.I like what Elias is doing.

You can't view this through the lens of his career stats.They aren't trading the career of Cashner in the off season, when everyone is patient and has plenty of time and more supply at their disposal. The fact that the O's only have a 2 month rental to offer isn't a disability, it's a plus. Because he's pitching well above his standards. It's also a plus in the sense that he isn't likely to be this guy next year. So it isn't a situation where Boston is forced to swallow the pill and bog down their 2020 roster and payroll with an inconsistent pitcher. 

 

Boston is looking at the here and now, not who he was last year, or who he may be next year. And they weren't trading for an upgrade. If they were, I would be in total agreement with you. They're trading to fill a big hole in their rotation. And Cashner is currently pitching well above the level of a 5th starter. Boston was desperate, and Cashner is a hot hand. We all know how Boston is, there's no excuse for not going all in, every year. That fan base will never have enough WS trophies to cure their inferiority complex to NY. 

 

I'm not pinning the O's past on to Elias. But after years of watching DD under sell and over pay in trades, it would have been nice to see something a bit more uplifting.


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#119 bmore_ken

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Posted 15 July 2019 - 10:35 AM

You can't view this through the lens of his career stats.They aren't trading the career of Cashner in the off season, when everyone is patient and has plenty of time and more supply at their disposal. The fact that the O's only have a 2 month rental to offer isn't a disability, it's a plus. Because he's pitching well above his standards. It's also a plus in the sense that he isn't likely to be this guy next year. So it isn't a situation where Boston is forced to swallow the pill and bog down their 2020 roster and payroll with an inconsistent pitcher. 

 

Boston is looking at the here and now, not who he was last year, or who he may be next year. And they weren't trading for an upgrade. If they were, I would be in total agreement with you. They're trading to fill a big hole in their rotation. And Cashner is currently pitching well above the level of a 5th starter. Boston was desperate, and Cashner is a hot hand. We all know how Boston is, there's no excuse for not going all in, every year. That fan base will never have enough WS trophies to cure their inferiority complex to NY. 

 

I'm not pinning the O's past on to Elias. But after years of watching DD under sell and over pay in trades, it would have been nice to see something a bit more uplifting.

I think you're overvaluing Cashner. As I said in an earlier post, if a better offer was out there I have hard time believing Elias wouldn't have taken it. I think what he got was as good as it's likely getting. Maybe I'm wrong and there would have been a better offer closer to the deadline. Who knows? Cashner is pitching great now, but he could revert to his regular form any start now. It's a big risk giving up good pieces for a pitcher who's hot now, but you know has an average track record. That's my opinion at least.



#120 SportsGuy

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Posted 15 July 2019 - 11:46 AM

Elias said the offer they took was the highest upside offer.

 

You could argue that if he had waited, he may have gotten more.  (you could also argue the opposite)

 

You could also argue that he should have taken an offer with guys who are more of a sure thing than we received, even if the upside isn't there.

 

Personally, I am very happy with how this all worked out but I see the arguments for not being happy with it.  (and I say this assuming Elias is telling the truth about the upside of the players involved vs what else was offered)

 

The one thing I will say is that I don't want them to get into some trap that you have to make up for the mistakes of the past and only target these types of players because the old regimes didn't.


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