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Cashner traded to Boston


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#81 Mackus

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Posted 14 July 2019 - 01:37 PM

Why do you think they took the first offer made?

Elias has seemed to move very deliberately to me. Suggesting he took the first offer seems to be pushing your own interpretation of the return onto the process.
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#82 dude

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Posted 14 July 2019 - 02:14 PM

Dude, you are just greatly overrating Cashner.

Put together an equivalent deal using Os players that you think we should have gotten

 

It feels like you are trying to do some type of WAR balance and not valuing his relevance to a team that needs him...I mean...need is the crux of his value.

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For the second part, it's a little hard to do given the number of things you would also need to identify, but I'd have no issues using Lowther or Hanifee or Baumann as a first piece and then adding 2 of the 27 guys from this years IFA class (or 500k in pool).  I wouldn't argue about the money.



#83 Mackus

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Posted 14 July 2019 - 02:18 PM

The two guys from the Red Sox are worth more than two guys who got equal bonuses this year for the reasons previously stated. I'd say 3 or 4 times more valuable.

Having another year of positive progress under your belt is a benefit to value. It's like if you take a 3rd round pick and that guy had a strong first season. You wouldn't trade him for an upcoming 3rd round selection in the following draft. His strong start makes him more valuable than an equivalent selection the next year.
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#84 bmore_ken

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Posted 14 July 2019 - 03:13 PM

Are these guys anything but fodder?

What were you expecting for Cashner?



#85 bmore_ken

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Posted 14 July 2019 - 03:16 PM

Don't know squat about these two kids but I gotta say I hope our scouts really looked at these. We traded a MLB starter with a career 4.00 ERA for two total flyers. Man I would have thought we could have gotten something more along the lines of a AA up and comer?

A ML starter with an expiring contract on a team going nowhere who has a track record of being average.


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#86 bmore_ken

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Posted 14 July 2019 - 03:26 PM

I haven't read through this thread yet, so this may have already been discussed. I agree with all your points. But Cashner is pitching really, really well, and for a bad team. Boston had a glaring hole in the rotation, and is chasing a WC position (since they're almost certainly out of the ALe race). I think the risk/sacrifice is one them, just like the O's taking Miller from them a few years ago. 

 

I trust the Org knows better than me. But it seems like they should have gotten a bit more substance. 

Cashner has been an average pitcher for his career. Elias wasn't likely getting any more substance which is why I think the trade was made so soon. Either way, both of these guys might make it, one might make it, or neither might make it. The one thing we know for sure is Cashner wasn't going to be here next year, so you're literally not losing anything.I like what Elias is doing.



#87 dude

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Posted 14 July 2019 - 03:31 PM

The two guys from the Red Sox are worth more than two guys who got equal bonuses this year for the reasons previously stated. I'd say 3 or 4 times more valuable.

Having another year of positive progress under your belt is a benefit to value. It's like if you take a 3rd round pick and that guy had a strong first season. You wouldn't trade him for an upcoming 3rd round selection in the following draft. His strong start makes him more valuable than an equivalent selection the next year.

 

Sorry.  Not sure why there seems to be a movement to inflate the value of 2 non-prospects in the DSL.

 

Cashner's value was more than nothing to several teams and we didn't even save his salary.

 

Check back with me in 2024 and tell me I'm wrong.



#88 dude

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Posted 14 July 2019 - 03:46 PM

What were you expecting for Cashner?

A ML starter with an expiring contract on a team going nowhere who has a track record of being average.

Cashner has been an average pitcher for his career. 

 

The issue is you aren't considering Cashner's value.  His career numbers mean little to the RedSox (or Astros or Phillies or Brewers or Angels) over the next 2+ months.

 

Of his 17 starts this year, he's pitched well in 13 of them including 10 QS.  He's got a 1.50 ERA in his last 5 starts and part of the discussion is his adjustments in developing the changeup.

 

A number of teams need some rotation stability and hes gone 5+ innings in 15 of his 17 starts and the other 2 were 4 innings.

 

Nobody is suggesting he's bringing back top100 guys....but these aren't top500 guys.

 

If you want to make some kind of a statement with your first real unique opportunity this season, this isn't much of a statement.

 

He did mention his pipeline though, so there is the required swooning.



#89 Mackus

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Posted 14 July 2019 - 04:07 PM

Sorry. Not sure why there seems to be a movement to inflate the value of 2 non-prospects in the DSL.

Take inflate out

I'm trying to value them. The signing bonus received is an obvious corolary. And players who got X last year and then have a good season are now worth 3X or 4X, IMO.

Had we traded Cashner for 4 slugs to use internationally, I think people would feel better. Or at least they should. And that's effectively what we traded him for.

I would disagree with anyone who thinks he's worth more than a backend top 20 prospect. He's got very little trade value.
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#90 McNulty

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Posted 14 July 2019 - 04:09 PM

Sorry. Not sure why there seems to be a movement to inflate the value of 2 non-prospects in the DSL.

Cashner's value was more than nothing to several teams and we didn't even save his salary.

Check back with me in 2024 and tell me I'm wrong.


Don’t have to. You’re wrong now.
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#91 Mackus

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Posted 14 July 2019 - 04:22 PM

I also love be that we are paying salary remaining. I strongly criticized management/ownership last year for not doing to so increase the value of trade returns. So kudos for them doing it this year.

I have no opinion on either player. Whether Elias and co did a good job scouting cannot be determined for a while.

But I have zero problems with the negotiation process. I think anyone who does is being unrealistic about Cashner's value. $1M in international bonus slot allocation (4 slugs) is a fine return, IMO.
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#92 bmore_ken

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Posted 14 July 2019 - 04:36 PM

The issue is you aren't considering Cashner's value.  His career numbers mean little to the RedSox (or Astros or Phillies or Brewers or Angels) over the next 2+ months.

Those teams just showed you his value


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#93 BSLSteveBirrer

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Posted 14 July 2019 - 04:55 PM

So I haven't looked so its truly a straight question. What SP is likely to be available that is better than Cashner?



#94 BSLRobShields

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Posted 14 July 2019 - 05:11 PM

It feels like you are trying to do some type of WAR balance and not valuing his relevance to a team that needs him...I mean...need is the crux of his value.
-------------

For the second part, it's a little hard to do given the number of things you would also need to identify, but I'd have no issues using Lowther or Hanifee or Baumann as a first piece and then adding 2 of the 27 guys from this years IFA class (or 500k in pool). I wouldn't argue about the money.


So, 2 lottery tickets and an organizational prospect in the 8-15 range?
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#95 BSLRobShields

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Posted 14 July 2019 - 05:12 PM



Cashner's value was more than nothing to several teams .


How do you know what his value was to other teams?

Do you think Elias took a lesser deal to sabotage the organization or something?
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#96 BSLRobShields

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Posted 14 July 2019 - 05:14 PM

So I haven't looked so its truly a straight question. What SP is likely to be available that is better than Cashner?


Boyd, Baumgarner, potentially some of the Arizona starters, Wheeler...to name a few.

Cashner is just someone to eat some innings and keep you in games. Good chance he’s not even on the postseason roster, if they make the playoffs.
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#97 russsnyder

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Posted 14 July 2019 - 05:16 PM

I also love be that we are paying salary remaining. I strongly criticized management/ownership last year for not doing to so increase the value of trade returns. So kudos for them doing it this year.

I have no opinion on either player. Whether Elias and co did a good job scouting cannot be determined for a while.

But I have zero problems with the negotiation process. I think anyone who does is being unrealistic about Cashner's value. $1M in international bonus slot allocation (4 slugs) is a fine return, IMO.


I think the return is reflective of Cashner's value. He's a back end starter on a contender's staff. I agree that the deal was helped along by including salary relief in the deal. I have no issue with the trade.
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#98 BSLBobPhelan

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Posted 14 July 2019 - 05:32 PM

Homer Bailey just went to the A’s for a guy in AA with a ~.650 OPS who was around 20th in their organizational rankings. I’ll take the return we got.

#99 dude

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Posted 14 July 2019 - 05:58 PM

Homer Bailey just went to the A’s for a guy in AA with a ~.650 OPS who was around 20th in their organizational rankings. I’ll take the return we got.

 

Ugh, no.

 

Bailey is 50% of what Cashner is.  He's only got 6 QS in 18 starts with a 4.80 ERA and was so bad the last 3 years he was an utter salary dump and released.  He's pitched better this year (than the last 3 years...ERAs over 6.) but he is still only mediocre.  Cashner has been the best pitcher in the AL since June.

 

Cashner ERA+ is 121 and Bailey is 97.

 

Kevin Merrill was Oakland's #17 prospect (mlb.com) and he was the 33rd pick of the 2017 draft.  'Elite speed', 'impressive range' with his more likely home 2B than SS.  He sounds like a Whit Merrifield Type project. 



#100 BSLRobShields

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Posted 14 July 2019 - 06:16 PM

Cashner has a better ERA but Bailey's FIP and xFIP are better than his ERA...which is the opposite of Cashner.

 

I would guess Cashner would be viewed better but Bailey has been good lately.  Our return was better than this.

 

Let ask this another way.

 

Would you rather have what we got or Ryan McKenna and Carroll?

 

I think that is what Cashner is worth...a guy ranked in the 15-20 range in an organization and another player with a chance to serve some kind of role player role on a team.


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