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Cashner traded to Boston


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#61 BSLRobShields

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Posted 14 July 2019 - 09:02 AM

I wouldn’t be surprised if you have had one or 2 players similar to a Ryan McKenna from some team.

I much prefer what they got compared to that.
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#62 BSLRobShields

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Posted 14 July 2019 - 09:03 AM

His FIP is 4.25. Last year was more of an aberration than this year.


His xFIP is closer to 5.

He’s not a 5+ ERA guy but he is a 4.4-4.8 type guy.

He isn’t that good.
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#63 Mike B

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Posted 14 July 2019 - 09:08 AM

My issue is not the return for Cashner  I could not tell you a thing about either guy, and I really don't care about reading things into their minor league numbers or Cashner's major league numbers to see how good the two kids are or how bad Cashner's numbers should be.

Frankly, and this is just my opinion,  all this number crap is ruining the game.  I know if you are a number guy, you will feel different.  That is great, I just don't like what it is doing to the game.

What I really don't like is any team, especially my team tanking, and not caring about the product they are providing the fans.  Make the argument, the Orioles are not tanking, and by strict definition, you are right, but when you field a team that is AAA quality at the major league level, you are doing exactly that.

Maybe one of the kids will be a star 5 years down the road, and this trade will be considered a steal, but watching garbage for 5 years counts and comes at a cost.


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#64 Mike B

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Posted 14 July 2019 - 09:09 AM

There I ranted and feel better, but will not be watching any baseball today.


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#65 BSLRobShields

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Posted 14 July 2019 - 09:10 AM

My issue is not the return for Cashner  I could not tell you a thing about either guy, and I really don't care about reading things into their minor league numbers or Cashner's major league numbers to see how good the two kids are or how bad Cashner's numbers should be.
Frankly, and this is just my opinion,  all this number crap is ruining the game.  I know if you are a number guy, you will feel different.  That is great, I just don't like what it is doing to the game.
What I really don't like is any team, especially my team tanking, and not caring about the product they are providing the fans.  Make the argument, the Orioles are not tanking, and by strict definition, you are right, but when you field a team that is AAA quality at the major league level, you are doing exactly that.
Maybe one of the kids will be a star 5 years down the road, and this trade will be considered a steal, but watching garbage for 5 years counts and comes at a cost.


Why is the team going to be garbage for 5 years?
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#66 Dystopia

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Posted 14 July 2019 - 09:41 AM

My issue is not the return for Cashner I could not tell you a thing about either guy, and I really don't care about reading things into their minor league numbers or Cashner's major league numbers to see how good the two kids are or how bad Cashner's numbers should be.
Frankly, and this is just my opinion, all this number crap is ruining the game. I know if you are a number guy, you will feel different. That is great, I just don't like what it is doing to the game.
What I really don't like is any team, especially my team tanking, and not caring about the product they are providing the fans. Make the argument, the Orioles are not tanking, and by strict definition, you are right, but when you field a team that is AAA quality at the major league level, you are doing exactly that.
Maybe one of the kids will be a star 5 years down the road, and this trade will be considered a steal, but watching garbage for 5 years counts and comes at a cost.

Well we tried fielding competitive teams when we should have been rebuilding, and it resulted in 14 straight losing seasons.
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#67 Dystopia

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Posted 14 July 2019 - 09:45 AM

His xFIP is closer to 5.

He’s not a 5+ ERA guy but he is a 4.4-4.8 type guy.

He isn’t that good.

I know he’s not Cy Young or anything. Just would have been nice to get someone a bit a more established. And why the rush? Trade deadline is still a couple weeks away.

#68 Mackus

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Posted 14 July 2019 - 09:47 AM


I know he’s not Cy Young or anything. Just would have been nice to get someone a bit a more established. And why the rush? Trade deadline is still a couple weeks away.

Dylan Bundy's recent trip to the DL is the reason you make a trade you like when it's there rather than hold out for a better offer that might not come.

#69 dude

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Posted 14 July 2019 - 09:56 AM

3) They are high upside because they are extremely young, liked by 2 very good groups of FO members/scouting teams and are already performing relatively well. Most of the Intl FA are high upside guys. Lots of factors obviously determine if you become anything but at that age, you just never know.

 

I guess we're going to disagree on what 'upside' means.

 

The Orioles signed 27 'high upside' guys on J2....right?



#70 BSLSteveBirrer

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Posted 14 July 2019 - 10:29 AM

Outside of his BB rate, Cashner’s peripherals aren’t that good.

They tell you that his ERA is flukey.

If he had a 4.5-5 ERA (which is the area his ERA should be), would you be upset by this return?

Flukey? Ok his career era is 4.00. At a time when SP is at a premium I think we crapped the bed on this trade. He's a legit mid rotation starter with another year of control and we traded for at best two lottery picks.



#71 BSLRobShields

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Posted 14 July 2019 - 10:37 AM

I guess we're going to disagree on what 'upside' means.

The Orioles signed 27 'high upside' guys on J2....right?

They signed 27 lottery tickets.

Never know how any of them will turn out.

The high is obviously varying degrees but even a guy you don’t think has much now could be way different in a few years. A guy like Altuve, for example, signed for under 10k iirc and now look at him. Just never know.
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#72 BSLRobShields

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Posted 14 July 2019 - 10:38 AM

Flukey? Ok his career era is 4.00. At a time when SP is at a premium I think we crapped the bed on this trade. He's a legit mid rotation starter with another year of control and we traded for at best two lottery picks.


Yes, flukey.

Career ERA doesn’t matter as much when you are on the wrong side of 32.

Did you feel he was a legit mid rotation starter last year? My guess is no.
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#73 Mike B

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Posted 14 July 2019 - 11:34 AM

I know he’s not Cy Young or anything. Just would have been nice to get someone a bit a more established. And why the rush? Trade deadline is still a couple weeks away.

Yea, Elias has been on the media all week saying the trade market has not started, then boom Cashner is gone 2 days after the AS break.

It just feels like there was a rush to get something done.  Other teams would have jumped in.

My first thought was salary dump, until I saw we paid 1.8 million in the deal.


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#74 BSLBobPhelan

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Posted 14 July 2019 - 11:58 AM

His FIP is 4.25. Last year was more of an aberration than this year.


He is in the 11th percentile in strikeout percentage, 15th percentile in exit velocity, 13th percentile in hard hit percentage, and 25th percentage in xwOBA. Doesn’t mean he can’t continue to have success but all signs point to him going through some regression.

#75 Mackus

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Posted 14 July 2019 - 12:46 PM

Who thinks we should've got anything better than a back end top 20 org guy for Cashner? Let's say 15-20.

Seems super optimistic to get anyone of significant relevance for him, IMO. I think Villar has similar value and I wouldn't expect someone with a strong chance of being a contributor for him either.

#76 dude

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Posted 14 July 2019 - 01:00 PM

I don't know, it just feels like a meaningless trade unless you are valuing losing the possibility of wins to secure a lower pick (I mean, seriously, that could be it, right?)

 

Cashner is a better trade chip than Bundy or Givens today, he's performed better than any pitcher in the AL over a month+ and he has a reasonable contract.  He's not at the top of the market in terms of perception (MadBum, Ray, Stroman,...) but he'd be a reasonable fallback option for a number of teams.

 

If these guys are the #2 and #3 pieces in a trade and you get a better front piece like (and I'm just pulling a recent draftee behind depth) like mlb.com #14 Brandon Howlett/3B and you move the money, that sounds like something you maybe do earlier than later.

 

There's no risk to not getting the 2 guys they got because they're irrelevant.  You didn't even save all the money.

 

First bite at the apple seems to leave a lot to be desired.

 

I look at a team like Houston, where Elias should have great relationships, and Corbin Martin just went down for TJS.  He loses this year and likely next year.  Cashner would seem to be a nice fit as now pitcher and a reasonable back-of-the-rotation option for 2020 while Martin makes his way back.  They have to solve 4 pieces after Verlander so this would be an easy one to lock in.



#77 BSLRobShields

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Posted 14 July 2019 - 01:04 PM

Dude, you are just greatly overrating Cashner.

Put together an equivalent deal using Os players that you think we should have gotten
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#78 Mackus

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Posted 14 July 2019 - 01:07 PM

Cashner is a better trade chip than Givens but not Bundy, IMO.

Cashner also turns into zero value at the end of July (edit: unless you pick up his option and try again in the offseason or next year). So your trading partner has a lot of negotiating power.

#79 BSLRobShields

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Posted 14 July 2019 - 01:13 PM

Not sure he’s a better trade chip than Givens, who has years of control left, good K rates and a previous history of being dominant.

That being said, Givens needs some more outings like yesterday to get his value back up.

I think, right now, you could definitely find a team to give you what Boston just gave us. The question is, how much more can you get, if anything?

Need him to pitch well the next few weeks and then see what happens.

Mancini is still the guy to bring us back something significant. Hopefully that happens.
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#80 SunspotRob

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Posted 14 July 2019 - 01:20 PM


It's easy to say they won't even reach the Majors... not really the point... they're under long-term control, and they have some ceiling. 

Might be nothing. Probably will be nothing.  But they add depth to your system, and that gives you additional options later. (Other trades for one.)

Cashner had a very competitive first half.... but he had an expiring contract, and a long track-record which says what he is.  
He only had so much value. No reason to think we could have gotten more imo.

 

I just think you should've gotten a bit more. They traded early and probably first offer made. If you'd have maybe gotten a fringe AA prospect AND the two 17-year olds, I would say decent trade. Like someone else said, these 2 guys are 5+ years away from helping you. 






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