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2020 MLB Draft


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#41 dude

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Posted 22 March 2020 - 01:56 PM

I don’t mean it has to be Torkelson but a high upside college bat is the safest thing in the draft and while that TOR starter would be nice, I would rather take the surer thing in the bat.

No one will be blocking Tork btw. He would probably be ready, assuming things go well, by 2022.

Mountcastle will likely be here but he doesn’t have to be at first.

No one else is likely to be here.

 

My issue is (especially with a lack of new information this season) that none of the bats really has a big projection.

 

Rutschman had/has a unique profile...switch-hitting catcher with big profiles on both sides of the ball.

 

What college bats have anything that gets you excited about their profile?  It's not that they can't or won't succeed (or even be All-Stars), but none of Torkelson, Martin, Gonzales, Garrett Mitchell have an exciting profile....do they?

 

HS OFer Austin Hendrick may have a more exciting profile than them, but carries the additional risk too.

 

Tigers system is heavy pitching and lacks a lot of offensive upside so I'd guess they are going Bat at 1-1.

 

With the open board do you pass on Hancock or see if someone wants to give you a pre-draft deal and try to save some money for doing other things later in the draft  (risky if nothing pans out). 



#42 dude

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Posted 22 March 2020 - 01:59 PM

The more interesting strategy for teams could be to just draft the board and offer the kid 40% of slot, he'll reject it and you get the pick next year and the additional pool when you'll hopefully know more.

 

What if 20 teams did that?



#43 BSLSteveBirrer

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Posted 22 March 2020 - 05:18 PM

Dude, what do you consider an 'exciting profile"? Torkelson was on track to break into the top 10 all time NCAA leaders in HRs. Career OPS over 1.000. Walks more than he strikes out. Etc Etc.

 

The only thing that doesn't excite me about him is that he appears to be a 1B/DH and the O's are heavy there already.



#44 BSLBobPhelan

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Posted 22 March 2020 - 06:43 PM

I kind of like Lacy better Hancock but still prefer a position player.

#45 dude

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Posted 22 March 2020 - 11:01 PM

Dude, what do you consider an 'exciting profile"? Torkelson was on track to break into the top 10 all time NCAA leaders in HRs. Career OPS over 1.000. Walks more than he strikes out. Etc Etc.

 

The only thing that doesn't excite me about him is that he appears to be a 1B/DH and the O's are heavy there already.

 

Let me ask you....what would be a comp you would make for him?

 

At the end of the day, part of the equation is the marginal difference between him and another player for the same position.  1B/DH is the easiest of any position to find quality.  Guys with .800+ OPS and 30+HR there are getting waived.  I can likely keep Mancini there and not worry about the position.  Mancini-like bats (RHed, questionable hit tool, limited to 1B) are over-looked in the draft and you can pull them in lower rounds. 

 

You tell me he's Frank Thomas, Miguel Cabrera or Albert Pujols....draft him.

 

You tell me he's Jose Abreu or Rhys Hoskins....that's not what I want there.

---------------

 

...and the answer to an "exciting profile" is something that's unique and expensive to get in another way.

 

Position is part of the profile.



#46 dude

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Posted 22 March 2020 - 11:08 PM

I kind of like Lacy better than Hancock but still prefer a position player.

 

OK, but if you draft Lacy, you'll expect a pretty steep discount on the bonus, right? 

 

If he wanted 7M, would you give it to him?



#47 BSLSteveBirrer

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Posted 23 March 2020 - 07:55 AM

Let me ask you....what would be a comp you would make for him?

 

At the end of the day, part of the equation is the marginal difference between him and another player for the same position.  1B/DH is the easiest of any position to find quality.  Guys with .800+ OPS and 30+HR there are getting waived.  I can likely keep Mancini there and not worry about the position.  Mancini-like bats (RHed, questionable hit tool, limited to 1B) are over-looked in the draft and you can pull them in lower rounds. 

 

You tell me he's Frank Thomas, Miguel Cabrera or Albert Pujols....draft him.

 

You tell me he's Jose Abreu or Rhys Hoskins....that's not what I want there.

---------------

 

...and the answer to an "exciting profile" is something that's unique and expensive to get in another way.

 

Position is part of the profile.

 

You twice say that your aren't that interested because of his position. Which is the exact negative I said.

 

But you don't want him if he's a Jose Abreu? A guy with a career .290/.349/.862

 

But you don't want him if he's a Rhys Hoskins? A guy with a career .239/.364/.858

 

Seems like you aren't liking this guy pretty much based upon his position and not his projections? Perhaps I should have been more clear in my question about what you consider "exciting."  I was looking more for a generic answer and not strictly from the O's needs.



#48 BSLBobPhelan

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Posted 23 March 2020 - 08:29 AM

OK, but if you draft Lacy, you'll expect a pretty steep discount on the bonus, right?

If he wanted 7M, would you give it to him?


Hopefully negotiate under slot and use it further down.

#49 dude

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Posted 23 March 2020 - 09:48 AM

But you don't want him if he's a Jose Abreu? A guy with a career .290/.349/.862

 

But you don't want him if he's a Rhys Hoskins? A guy with a career .239/.364/.858

 

Correct.  My intent is not to bring this back to the rebuilding question, but it's the answer to your question.  You get one unique player by wasting a season.

 

If the one unique player that we acquired was [one of the above], ugh, what a horrible waste of the lost '19 season. 



#50 dude

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Posted 23 March 2020 - 09:59 AM

Seems like you aren't liking this guy pretty much based upon his position and not his projections? Perhaps I should have been more clear in my question about what you consider "exciting."  I was looking more for a generic answer and not strictly from the O's needs.

 

I am neither draft BPA or draft for NEED. 

 

I think every pick has some profile/projection/potential and you just have to understand how that fits into whatever you are doing.

 

If the best Talent is a HS kid, I'm more BPA because things will change a lot in 5 years.

If the top Talent is College kids, I'm more for considering shorter term fit because they are a (little) more stable profile.

 

This is an Orioles message board and we're talking about the Orioles draft at 1-2.  Yes, my opinion in this case is specific to the Orioles.



#51 BSLRobShields

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Posted 23 March 2020 - 10:00 AM

You should always draft BPA, especially in baseball.
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#52 dude

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Posted 23 March 2020 - 10:08 AM

The more interesting strategy for teams could be to just draft the board and offer the kid 40% of slot, he'll reject it and you get the pick next year and the additional pool when you'll hopefully know more.

 

I lean more and more to this.  I've never heard anyone suggest the Brady Aiken pick was intentional to get to the 2015 draft (that would actually be the only argument for the pick), but given the Angelos' consideration of other things, maybe best to unintentionally intentionally defer the pick to 2021. 



#53 dude

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Posted 23 March 2020 - 10:09 AM

You should always draft BPA, especially in baseball.

 

I couldn't disagree more.

 

You should draft to get the most Talent on your board, not straight draft (BPA) your board.



#54 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 23 March 2020 - 10:10 AM

MASN: Where O’s could look with the No. 2 pick in the draft
https://www.masnspor...-the-draft.html


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#55 Mike B

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Posted 23 March 2020 - 01:48 PM

Martin really fits a need for this organization


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#56 dude

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Posted 23 March 2020 - 03:21 PM

Martin really fits a need for this organization

 

If the comp was Dansby Swanson +.040 in BA, are you good with that?



#57 BSLSteveBirrer

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Posted 23 March 2020 - 04:14 PM

Ok Ddue, who are you drafting with the O's first pick? Seems like you hate all of them.



#58 Mike B

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Posted 23 March 2020 - 09:36 PM

If the comp was Dansby Swanson +.040 in BA, are you good with that?

I am not sure the comps ever work in baseball.  My comment was he seems a fit for the Orioles given their lack of infielders.

I really do not know much about any of these guys other than what I have read.

Who would be your pick.


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#59 dude

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Posted 24 March 2020 - 12:48 AM

Ok dude, who are you drafting with the O's first pick? Seems like you hate all of them.

I am not sure the comps ever work in baseball. My comment was he seems a fit for the Orioles given their lack of infielders.
I really do not know much about any of these guys other than what I have read.
Who would be your pick.


I don't hate any of these guys. That's absurd. I hate throwing a season away to pick guys like this at the top, but it's a little late for that. You're there now, figure out what the best you can do is.

I thought I said what I wanted to do. I wasn't joking. I guess I'd need to know more about the opportunity of the 2021 class, but pick a Boras client, offer them 2M under slot and let them walk. Pick next year.

If I have to sign a pick, I want to work a pre-draft deal, save a bunch of money and tell Austin Hendrick to float top5 money and I'll snatch him up later.

mlb.com is a professional scouting group. I guess we discount them because it's public, but privately, I guess I could be talked into anything. Carlos Callozo thinks they are all amazing Talents, but that feels a little optimistic to me. I don't know, I'd guess these guys slot 4-11 if you added them to last years class.

I've said for a while I'd expect us to take Emerson Hancock. There's things that give me pause....but you hope you get more Casey Mize than Mark Appel.

You tell me Torkleson is Frank Thomas, I'll take him.

You tell me why Vandy didn't play Martin at SS full-time and maybe I'd be more interested. When the report says he's not overly physical, that concerns me. I hate picking guys like Moniak or Swanson (Note: I don't hate the players) at the top of the draft....don't get me wrong, I love hit tool....just not the profile I want there.

You tell me Gonzales was standing in a 3 inch hole when they measured him, I'll work my pre-draft deal with him at 5M and try to pull something extra off later.

In some ways, I'm more interested in seeing who the Orioles gets a shot at at #30. Hendrick? Casey Mears Martin? Jordan Walker? Austin Wells?

Whoever they take, they'll be in the plan and I hope they do great and justify the selection.

 

Edit: Casey Mears is a NASCAR driver. 


Edited by dude, 24 March 2020 - 01:34 PM.


#60 BSLSteveBirrer

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Posted 24 March 2020 - 08:10 AM

 I am taking Torkelson.






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