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2020 MLB Draft


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#281 Mackus

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Posted 25 May 2020 - 08:12 PM

If you have so little confidence in your ability to at least pick a college player, who has 3 years of work to judge, that you tank a pick. You probably do not belong in the talent evaluation game.

I think you're dramatically understating the importance of the year immediately prior to the draft has on scouting and most importantly sorting these players.

If Coronavirus happens in 2019 we probably don't draft Rutschman, for example.

#282 BSLRobShields

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Posted 25 May 2020 - 08:23 PM

Yea I think that’s wrong.

He was #1 on a lot of boards before 2019.

I think it’s less likely they take Witt than Rutschman.
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#283 Mackus

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Posted 25 May 2020 - 08:34 PM

Rutschman was ahead in some publications but I recall seeing Witt mentioned more often before the season began. Point remains that the board changes dramatically.

#284 Mike B

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Posted 25 May 2020 - 08:44 PM

I think you're dramatically understating the importance of the year immediately prior to the draft has on scouting and most importantly sorting these players.

If Coronavirus happens in 2019 we probably don't draft Rutschman, for example.

I get that.  My point is these guys are the best talent evaluators in the world.  I have a hard time seeing teams tanking picks to wait until next year.  To me it seems like a disservice to the kids and a missed opportunity for the franchise.  I do think some teams may get sticker shock, and decide not to sign a kid, but to just tank the pick, seems over the top.


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#285 Mike B

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Posted 25 May 2020 - 08:47 PM

Rutschman was ahead in some publications but I recall seeing Witt mentioned more often before the season began. Point remains that the board changes dramatically.

The sports talk shows, were keeping track of the race for Witt.   I do remember hearing early on though, people were saying Rutschman was a definite candidate though. 


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#286 dude

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Posted 26 May 2020 - 12:28 AM

For more of the player scores...

 

https://sabermetrics...om/draft-model/

 

So I noticed Casey Martin wasn't on your list at all.  Thoughts?  I've seen the question on the Hit tool and the CBS publication discussed not being able to hit a breaking ball (I've also seen 'sell out for power' so are they related?)

-----------

 

Also, you have Jordan Walker at 15.  I saw one mock where he was going top 10 (not recently, not credible, I guess) but it seems like the horses that were out front early get hyper analyzed and they fall.  He's a kid that could float a bigger number that scares teams off and is available further down the board 39? farther?

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I understand positional adjustment and why people do it, but I don't think there's the consequence in application (what teams actually do) versus what everyone talks about (what they say).  Teams have had zero issues putting guys anywhere but catcher.  I'm actually probably more pro-defense that a lot of these teams appear to be.  However, I'm not sure that I care about drafting a lesser bat because he's a middle infielder in the ranking (which bumps his value up).  I look at a guy like Aaron Sabato (or even Tork, though he's still at the top).  It's a factor and maybe it's not big enough a factor to worry about, but it creates a lot of subjectivity in the analysis when you don't care about the things the model is managing 'value' around.



#287 BSLStephenCLoftus

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Posted 26 May 2020 - 07:12 AM

Casey Martin: Score (2.16). Strikes out way too much and not enough power or walks to make up for it. Not the biggest fan of his swing action. Movements at SS don't seem smooth, so I agree with BAs assessment that he seems more likely to fit at 2B.

 

Jordan Walker: Model loves big HS players with power potential. If he's set on going to Duke, he'll be there at 39 and no one's getting him out of there unless they offer an unreasonable amount of money for the pick. He could be Torkelson in 3 years and he knows it. If he's not set on it, I don't think he's there at 39. One note, he gets a lot of positional credit going into the model as a 3B. If he goes in at 1B, his score falls by 3 runs and he's the 20th best guy.

 

Having been in the room and had these conversations, position matters and defense matters to teams in these decisions.


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#288 JeremyStrain

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Posted 26 May 2020 - 07:25 AM

Yea I think that’s wrong.

He was #1 on a lot of boards before 2019.

I think it’s less likely they take Witt than Rutschman.


Nah he’s right. AR was in convo for top 10 pick I believe but he didn’t become no brainer #1 pick until that year leading up to the draft.

I swore it was going to be Witt. Teams were waiting for him since his 10th grade year.

It’s a little nitpicky cause it’s not like teams didn’t know who AR was, but he locked things in with a pretty dominant year in that year before.
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#289 BSLRobShields

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Posted 26 May 2020 - 08:56 AM

Nah he’s right. AR was in convo for top 10 pick I believe but he didn’t become no brainer #1 pick until that year leading up to the draft.
I swore it was going to be Witt. Teams were waiting for him since his 10th grade year.
It’s a little nitpicky cause it’s not like teams didn’t know who AR was, but he locked things in with a pretty dominant year in that year before.


He wasn’t a consensus #1 but I definitely saw him as a good chance to be one and was certainly one of the top few guys on the board.

I distinctly remember people talking about him at #1 and saying, who is this guy, I thought it was Witt in a landslide?(and yes that was before the season started in 2019)

I tend to believe if this pandemic happened back then, that the Os wouldn’t have taken the HS kid.
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#290 JeremyStrain

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Posted 26 May 2020 - 09:12 AM

He wasn’t a consensus #1 but I definitely saw him as a good chance to be one and was certainly one of the top few guys on the board.

I distinctly remember people talking about him at #1 and saying, who is this guy, I thought it was Witt in a landslide?(and yes that was before the season started in 2019)

I tend to believe if this pandemic happened back then, that the Os wouldn’t have taken the HS kid.


It's really hard to say, cause there's no HS kid that has been high on the radar for 2 years. I guess the best comparison, is if Harper was in this draft, even without his senior year, would teams still favor the more known college players?

 

Can't say if it's chicken or the egg, since we don't know what we don't know. Could have been a couple HS kids that worked their way into top 5 discussion with a senior season.

 

As is, like you've said before, since you've got more data on the college guys those are the safer play, and it's not like they don't merit a top pick, so you aren't losing out. The teams in trouble this year are the ones picking in the mid first round.


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#291 BSLRobShields

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Posted 26 May 2020 - 09:15 AM

It's really hard to say, cause there's no HS kid that has been high on the radar for 2 years. I guess the best comparison, is if Harper was in this draft, even without his senior year, would teams still favor the more known college players?
 
Can't say if it's chicken or the egg, since we don't know what we don't know. Could have been a couple HS kids that worked their way into top 5 discussion with a senior season.
 
As is, like you've said before, since you've got more data on the college guys those are the safer play, and it's not like they don't merit a top pick, so you aren't losing out. The teams in trouble this year are the ones picking in the mid first round.



Yep...it’s a crapshoot after the first 5-10 players imo.

This would be a year where you wish you could trade draft picks.
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#292 Mackus

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Posted 26 May 2020 - 09:17 AM

Yep...it’s a crapshoot after the first 5-10 players imo.

This would be a year where you wish you could trade draft picks.

Well, if you play the bonus allocations and asses the demands of various guys correctly, you effectively can trade picks to a degree. Can't net extra picks, but can move up and down to get as many picks in the area you think is ripest for talent and value.

#293 BSLStephenCLoftus

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Posted 26 May 2020 - 02:25 PM

A bit more of a look at Martin vs. Gonzales.

 

https://sabermetrics...re-perspective/


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