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BSL: A Deep Dive into Baltimore Lefty John Means


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#1 BSLBrandonWarne

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Posted 10 May 2019 - 01:21 PM

I took a deep dive into lefty John Means. Spoiler -- I think he's pretty dang good.

 

http://www.baltimore...fty-john-means/

 


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#2 BSLRobShields

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Posted 10 May 2019 - 01:36 PM

I was going to sit down and write about him too.

Good article.

It’s early but there are a lot of positive signs. Just keep putting him out there and see how the league adjusts to him and vice versa.
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#3 FFH

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Posted 11 May 2019 - 03:32 PM

I took a deep dive into lefty John Means. Spoiler -- I think he's pretty dang good.

 

http://www.baltimore...fty-john-means/

 

Good article.

 

As a general question, is there a statistic that has shows the effects of poor contact on expected run outcomes?  I'm not familiar with one....

 

Honestly tho, without having seen many full games and just looking at the statistics, this looks like a player that's pretty clearly figured out his command and his change up.  He's basically turned into a two-pitch pitcher who aggressively pounds the corners with his fastball, mostly inside (4 HBP to this point, slightly ballooning his FIP), while using the change up to keep the hitter's timing off, then mixing in a once in a while slider or curve ball to keep the hitter thinking and to induce weak contact.   

This is a good article that talks about the magical 10 MPH FB-CH difference:  

https://bleacherrepo...est-of-the-pack

 

Means current difference on average is 11.8, which puts him at elite level.  That would also explain, along with his command, his ability to induce weak contact, leading to more outs. As far as his BABIP, the O's right now are in the middle of the pack in defensive value, and that improvement combined with his deception, which you allude to, make for a pretty nice scenario going forward.  

 

Here is some video that shows his change-fastball deception from a three inning appearance in ST:

https://www.mlb.com/...ess-c2523375083

That arm action is beautiful. 


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#4 dude

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Posted 12 May 2019 - 08:14 AM

At a Talent expectation level, he feels a lot like Zach Davies to me.



#5 BSLRobShields

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Posted 12 May 2019 - 10:56 AM

At a Talent expectation level, he feels a lot like Zach Davies to me.


We’ll see how things end up but so far, he misses far more bats than Davies though. If that keeps up and many of the other things stay the same, he likely is a better pitcher, especially in the AL.
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#6 FFH

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Posted 12 May 2019 - 02:27 PM

At a Talent expectation level, he feels a lot like Zach Davies to me.

 

 

Davies is at least a no 3, and a no 1 on this staff.  I would be happy with that. 


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#7 dude

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Posted 12 May 2019 - 04:28 PM

Davies is at least a no 3, and a no 1 on this staff.  I would be happy with that. 

 

....so in terms of creating the staff you want....where does he fit and describe the opportunity he gets moving forward.



#8 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 12 May 2019 - 04:33 PM

....so in terms of creating the staff you want....where does he fit and describe the opportunity he gets moving forward.

 

He gets more starts now, and with continued performance, more opportunity.  That's it. 

 


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#9 Mackus

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Posted 12 May 2019 - 10:04 PM

....so in terms of creating the staff you want....where does he fit and describe the opportunity he gets moving forward.

He pitches in the rotation until he's been bad for longer than he's been good (or at least for one full year if it's down the road a long ways). Once that scale shifts out of his favor, then you do some thinking about if you continue pitching him.

I think Means could be anywhere from a high end #2 to out of the league. Any plan or outline that has a set role in mind for him is misguided.
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