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BSL: Can Chris Davis be Saved?


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#61 BSLRobShields

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Posted 10 April 2019 - 08:11 AM

I get that but most of his problems are hitting a moving ball which more often that not, he's late on.  I don't know how hitting off a tee will improve your timing.  It's important to see the motion of a pitcher, his rhythm and release point consistently, over and over again.  I don't know who they could use to replicate a 90+ MPH fastball during batting practice since I seriously doubt they'd use any of their own pitchers.  Overall, hitting off a tee isn't going to make Davis any worse of a hitter but I doubt it will help much in his case. 

Ever seen the golf drills where there is no ball being used?  

 

Its the muscle memory that they are working on.


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#62 Ricker Says

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Posted 10 April 2019 - 09:14 AM

538 on Davis: https://fivethirtyei...=espn:frontpage

They are projecting a .181 BA in 2019 given the start. He strikes out more than twice as much as the league average... striking out 47% of the time. It's not all bad though, he's hitting the ball .5 MPH harder than in his last productive season (2016).
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#63 FFH

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Posted 10 April 2019 - 09:15 AM

Do we know if any word in this sentence is true? I think we should pump the brakes on claims about what prescription drugs he should be on to manage his ADHD and how that might help his on field performance.

We know he took it in personal life in the past and had an MLB exemption in one or more years through 2012. We know he did not have an exemption in 2013 or 2014 (the latter being the year he got suspended). We know that in 2015 he got an exemption for a different drug (Vyvanse).

I haven't been able to find any info on any TUEs that Chris has applied for, been granted, or been denied since. Because of confidentiality, all the info we had in the past came from Davis himself, because MLB cannot release it. So he just hasn't talked about it publicly since 2015. He could be using Adderall today with league approval or he could be denied from taking either Adderall it Vyvanse and we wouldn't know either way.

 

Well, I had assumed that the 50 million posts about this were working off of the same information....however it is an urban legend that I was able to disprove with a simple Google search.  

http://camdendepot.b...hris-davis.html

 

Care to comment on the rest of the post? 



#64 Mackus

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Posted 10 April 2019 - 09:42 AM

Care to comment on the rest of the post? 

 

He basically is just striking out, or effectively that is what he is doing as far as it is possible.  He's struck out 15 of 32 PA (46.9%) this season.  Small sample, but that's a massive increase from his horrendous ~37% rate in '17 & '18 and 31% for his career thru '16.

 

I think it's highly unlikey he's ever productive again.  And if he wasn't owed a massive amount of money, the Orioles would've released him last season.  



#65 Nigel Tufnel

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Posted 10 April 2019 - 03:30 PM

Orioles are “resetting” a little with Davis, Hyde said. Give him a couple days off (Tuesday and today) to work on things, work with Don Long. Just some technical hitting things. Doesn’t sound like it will be a long absence. so he could certainly be back in the lineup Thursday.


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#66 BSLRobShields

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Posted 10 April 2019 - 03:38 PM

https://fivethirtyei...=espn:frontpage


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#67 JoyinMudville

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Posted 10 April 2019 - 05:18 PM

He's 33. As a simple matter of biology he's past his prime. His reflexes will continue to slow. He is not as fast. His eyesight will deteriorate. It will become increasingly more difficult to maintain muscle mass. That's just a ruthless fact of life.

Other players, through superior skill/talent (i.e. genetics) have been able to delay this process and have even had great years in their mid to late 30's but they are the exception, not the rule. Can Davis bounce back? Sure, a little. But he'll never be the player he was in his 20's and even a modest bounce back would give us, what? 20 home runs and a 230 average?

 

Cut him loose. If he proves me wrong, good for him.

 

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#68 FFH

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Posted 11 April 2019 - 04:09 AM

He basically is just striking out, or effectively that is what he is doing as far as it is possible.  He's struck out 15 of 32 PA (46.9%) this season.  Small sample, but that's a massive increase from his horrendous ~37% rate in '17 & '18 and 31% for his career thru '16.

 

I think it's highly unlikey he's ever productive again.  And if he wasn't owed a massive amount of money, the Orioles would've released him last season.  

 

Ok, but that doesn't mean that he's actually unfixable.  The work he is doing is to correct his bat path.  The next thing they are going to do is try to correct his pitch selection, this is something they are working on in tandem, but not the primary focus.  Once that is done, they verify timing. 

If you look at the video of his swings, they are horrible right now.  He doesn't push through the  

 

Basically he's being forced to relearn how to hit on the fly.  This means that he's going to fail before he can succeed.  As a 100+ million dollar man, that should never happen, but he's clearly so far off the wagon that he needs specific focused attention.  He should be sent to the minors to work on his flaws, and I bet they could pass him through waivers.  Thing is, I don't know if he would get the same resources at the lower levels as he were sent down. 



#69 ivanbalt

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Posted 11 April 2019 - 05:52 AM

Ok, but that doesn't mean that he's actually unfixable.  The work he is doing is to correct his bat path.  The next thing they are going to do is try to correct his pitch selection, this is something they are working on in tandem, but not the primary focus.  Once that is done, they verify timing. 

If you look at the video of his swings, they are horrible right now.  He doesn't push through the  

 

Basically he's being forced to relearn how to hit on the fly.  This means that he's going to fail before he can succeed.  As a 100+ million dollar man, that should never happen, but he's clearly so far off the wagon that he needs specific focused attention.  He should be sent to the minors to work on his flaws, and I bet they could pass him through waivers.  Thing is, I don't know if he would get the same resources at the lower levels as he were sent down. 

 

He's unfixable.  He never "corrected" himself last season and had the worst season ever for a hitter.  And he's returned this season even worse.



#70 Mackus

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Posted 11 April 2019 - 07:04 AM

He should be sent to the minors to work on his flaws, and I bet they could pass him through waivers.

 

As a player with >5 years of service time, Chris would have to approve of a minor league assignment.  Since Boras is his agent, he will likely never do so on principal, even though I agree that a minor league assignment for more focused work without the need for positive results in an environment with less publicity would be beneficial for him.



#71 BSLRobShields

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Posted 11 April 2019 - 07:19 AM

Why would you refuse that assignment?

Is it more embarrassing to go to the minors vs what is going on with you right now?
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#72 BSLSeanJester

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Posted 11 April 2019 - 07:45 AM

Why would you refuse that assignment?

Is it more embarrassing to go to the minors vs what is going on with you right now?

Probably, yes, because that hardly ever happens with veteran players, especially $160 M players. Davis knows his release is around the corner. So once he is released he'd probably take a MiL deal from another team and do that.

 

It won't happen here, though.


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#73 weird-O

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Posted 11 April 2019 - 08:38 AM

Why would you refuse that assignment?

Is it more embarrassing to go to the minors vs what is going on with you right now?

Think about life in the minor leagues though. It's a hard life, and unless he pulls a Michael Jordan, and buys a super awesome team bus, he'd be living an inferior existence, compared to the pampered life of a major leaguer. Another thing to consider is something Buck mentioned. Sending him to the minors would leave him exposed to a media circus. In Baltimore, he's just an overpaid, terrible player that no one really cares about. In Norfolk, he'd be a high profile distraction.  


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#74 Mackus

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Posted 11 April 2019 - 08:44 AM

I think he (and specifically Boras) would use the union as a crutch to say he is not accepting the assignment because he has the right to refuse and remain in the majors.

 

I think he should accept.  It's the right thing to do for him and the team.  I think it'd be fair for him to insist on some stipulations like they have to bring him back up (or release him) within 30 or 45 days or something like that, assuming that is somethign that can be legally agreed upon between he and the Orioles within the CBA. 

 

If it's an open ended demotion without any guarantee of getting back up, then I have no problem with refusing the assignment.  But if that concern can be satiated, then I have a huge problem with him refusing the assignment.



#75 Mackus

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Posted 11 April 2019 - 08:48 AM

Sending him to the minors would leave him exposed to a media circus. In Baltimore, he's just an overpaid, terrible player that no one really cares about. In Norfolk, he'd be a high profile distraction.  

 

I think this is absolutely 180 degrees backward.  The current media scrutiny in Baltimore while he is struggling at historic levels is vastly higher than the media scrutiny would be on him if he accepted a demotion to Norfolk.



#76 Mackus

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Posted 11 April 2019 - 09:03 AM

Adam Dunn has been an example given in the past of a guy who completely fell apart but managed to salvage a career afterwards.  He had a career 900 OPS entering 2011, but then at age 31 he had 159 average and 569 OPS for the season (496 PA).  He never got back to the guy he was prior, but he finished his career with 3 solid enough seasons from 2012-2014, each between a 750-800 OPS.

 

Another example that might give some hope is Jason Giambi.  He had been a 950+ OPS guy for his career up until the midpoint of his Age 33 season 2004.  Over a calendar year from June 2004 thru May 2005, he had a 189 average and 612 OPS.  He rebounded amazingly well, to play another 10 seasons thru 2014 with a total 850 OPS.  Giambi's case isn't so similar to Davis, though, as he had been dealing with injuries which could have impacted his '04-05 performance and his down period was only over about 300 PA.

 

Also, prior to their one big down year (or less in Giambi's case), neither Dunn or Giambi ever had faltered previously.  Davis had the terrible season in 2014.  He did rebound with a huge 2015, but he fell off big time year to year between '15-16 and again from '16-17 before completely bottoming out last season.  Unlike Giambi and Dunn, Davis' terrible performance currently feels like the bottom of a long slide rather than an out-of-nowhere disaster.  So while it's nice to have a couple examples of once-great sluggers that struggled and then bounced back, I don't think either are a great comparison to what we've seen in recent years from Davis.



#77 BSLRobShields

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Posted 11 April 2019 - 09:15 AM

I think this is absolutely 180 degrees backward.  The current media scrutiny in Baltimore while he is struggling at historic levels is vastly higher than the media scrutiny would be on him if he accepted a demotion to Norfolk.

Right...he is nothing in Norfolk.  He will be forgotten down there.


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#78 Mackus

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Posted 11 April 2019 - 09:30 AM

This article today suggests Davis is open to a minor league or extended Spring Training assignment.  I'll believe it when I see it happen, though, and not before.

 

http://www.espn.com/...vis-0-50-streak

Whether it's passing through waivers and going to the minors, or spending some time at the Orioles' spring training complex in Sarasota, Florida, to work out the kinks -- an idea Davis says new general manager Mike Elias proposed during a meeting toward the end of March -- Davis is game.

"If I'm struggling to the point where I feel like it's going to be a repeat of last year, I'm absolutely open to anything," says the former All-Star who hit .168 last season, setting a record for the lowest average ever by a qualified hitter. "I want to be successful. I know I have four more years here. I want to make the most of 'em."



#79 Nigel Tufnel

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Posted 11 April 2019 - 09:38 AM

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#80 FFH

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Posted 11 April 2019 - 10:33 AM

Honestly, there couldn't be a better place for him than Norfolk.  That place has a way of eating up power hitters.  I think it would be a great place for him to focus on his swing while getting live pitching, some of which would be major league level. 






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