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BSL: Orioles: Top 40 Prospects Entering 2019


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#1 BSLAdamMcInturff

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Posted 17 February 2019 - 11:57 AM

BSL: Orioles: Top 40 Prospects Entering 2019  (Part 1, 40-31)
https://www.baltimor...ing-2019-40-31/

 

BSL: Orioles: Top 40 Prospects Entering 2019 (Part 2, 30-21)
https://www.baltimor...ing-2019-30-21/

 

BSL: Orioles: Top 40 Prospects Entering 2019 (Part 3, 20-11)
https://www.baltimor...ing-2019-20-11/

 

BSL: Orioles: Top 40 Prospects Entering 2019 (Part 4, 10-1)
https://www.baltimor...ring-2019-10-1/


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#2 BSLAdamMcInturff

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Posted 18 February 2019 - 08:01 AM

Part 2 up...


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#3 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 18 February 2019 - 09:32 AM

I'm totally on-board with transitioning Harvey to the pen.



#4 Mackus

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Posted 18 February 2019 - 09:56 AM

That's an awful idea, IMO.  We need to get him pitching more, not less.



#5 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 18 February 2019 - 10:06 AM

He has pitched 62 innings over 2015-2018.

Getting him to 150 innings is probably a 2-3 year process.

Make him a reliever, and he could actually move and provide some of his talent. If he moves and gets to a point where he is contributing...you can either keep him as a cheap asset or move him as a piece.

Yeah, I see the flip...you aren't contending in the next 2 years at least so you have time to try and build him as a starter...but there is nothing about his build, his history, etc that screams future starter to me.

#6 Mackus

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Posted 18 February 2019 - 10:21 AM

If he had to be on the MLB roster like Bundy in '12, then I'd want him pitching out of the bullpen to limit his exposure.  But since he can go to the minors, he should be starting there.  You only remove guys from the rotation when they prove they can't start. 

 

If he physically cannot start, then let him pitch in shorter stints.  That's the only reason to change his role.  But I don't think there is any reason to think he would hold up physically in the bullpen but wouldn't be able to as a starter.  He's either going to break down or he isn't (he probably is).  I don't see the role having a big change in the likelihood of him avoiding catastrophic injury.



#7 JeremyStrain

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Posted 18 February 2019 - 10:24 AM

If he had to be on the MLB roster like Bundy in '12, then I'd want him pitching out of the bullpen to limit his exposure.  But since he can go to the minors, he should be starting there.  You only remove guys from the rotation when they prove they can't start. 

 

If he physically cannot start, then let him pitch in shorter stints.  That's the only reason to change his role.  But I don't think there is any reason to think he would hold up physically in the bullpen but wouldn't be able to as a starter.  He's either going to break down or he isn't (he probably is).  I don't see the role having a big change in the likelihood of him avoiding catastrophic injury.

 

Agree with this. Much harder to bring someone from RP to a starter later than the other way around, and even IF his body agrees well and holds up to the RP load, he could still break down when he tries to stretch out. Better off letting him try to adjust to the SP thing and hope it was just a bad run of luck. Bundy bounced back, so can Harvey.


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#8 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 18 February 2019 - 10:31 AM

Seems to me if you're worried about him being fragile...it's easier to envision him providing 50 innings a year vs 150.

Yeah, relievers can go back-to-back (though Buck did a great job for years of minimizing that)...and a high leverage inning might be more strenuous vs a 5 inning start...but overall I'd argue 50 relief innings easier physically vs 150 innings starting.

I'm of the opinion guys only have so many bullets in their arms. Everyone believes in the actual talent. I think relief best positions him to become a contributor.

Something to watch either way I guess.

#9 Mackus

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Posted 18 February 2019 - 10:37 AM

I think he's either going to hold up physically or he isn't.  I don't think babying him in a relief role in the minors means he's more likely to last physically.

 

So, if he does happen to push through and not break down, I don't want to artificially limit his contributions by making him a reliever.

 

Only if/when I'm convinced he can't physically handle the workload of a SP or if/when I think he simply isn't good enough to get guys out more than once a game would I consider changing him to a relief pitcher.



#10 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 18 February 2019 - 10:37 AM

Re Bundy / Harvey...Bundy had already advanced to the Majors mostly due to performance prior to his lost years...Harvey's last significant starting was '14 and Delmarva.

Could he still become a starter? Possible. Definitely a 2-3 year project to get the innings up to a point he could join the rotation though.

Also Bundy has that ideal frame. Just don't see it with Harvey but I guess Lincecum says hi.

#11 Mackus

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Posted 18 February 2019 - 10:41 AM

Also Bundy has that ideal frame. Just don't see it with Harvey but I guess Lincecum says hi.

 

I don't agree with the frame comments.  Harvey isn't some short guy like Lincecum or Pedro.  He's 6'3".  He's thin currently, but I don't think there is as much worry about tall and lean guys as there is about shorter guys who are also lean.  



#12 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 18 February 2019 - 10:45 AM

I don't agree with the frame comments. Harvey isn't some short guy like Lincecum or Pedro. He's 6'3". He's thin currently, but I don't think there is as much worry about tall and lean guys as there is about shorter guys who are also lean.


He's got no muscle and no core. No legs. Plenty of guys have had success without...maybe he will be another. Personally it makes me less confident in his ability to ever find consistent success as a starter.

#13 JeremyStrain

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Posted 18 February 2019 - 10:49 AM

Seems to me if you're worried about him being fragile...it's easier to envision him providing 50 innings a year vs 150.

Yeah, relievers can go back-to-back (though Buck did a great job for years of minimizing that)...and a high leverage inning might be more strenuous vs a 5 inning start...but overall I'd argue 50 relief innings easier physically vs 150 innings starting.

I'm of the opinion guys only have so many bullets in their arms. Everyone believes in the actual talent. I think relief best positions him to become a contributor.

Something to watch either way I guess.

 

Yeah but it's not always just the number of innings. It's the way the innings are played too. 2 IP every 2-3 days is really different than 6 IP every 5.

 

I'm not worried about development. Aside from injuries he'd be in the majors already. Knowledge wise he's way ahead of the game, it's just a matter of his body physically needing to cooperate.

 

The tricky thing is the mental side of recovery now. Once you've missed so much time you get frustrated and want to get back as fast as you can not to miss any more time, which just increases injury risk. To that point moving to RP could also make things worse, as they will let go a little more effort since they are throwing shorter spurts and don't need to worry about the stamina from that angle.

 

As for the body type and the core thing, that doesn't really matter as much as people think. There are all types of body styles that excel and do great work in baseball. It's not about having a certain type, it's about using the one you have effectively. David Wells, Randy Johnson, Wainwright, Sabathia, Stroman. Not just one way to go.


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#14 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 18 February 2019 - 11:07 AM

Yeah but it's not always just the number of innings. It's the way the innings are played too. 2 IP every 2-3 days is really different than 6 IP every 5.

 

I'm not worried about development. Aside from injuries he'd be in the majors already. Knowledge wise he's way ahead of the game, it's just a matter of his body physically needing to cooperate.

 

The tricky thing is the mental side of recovery now. Once you've missed so much time you get frustrated and want to get back as fast as you can not to miss any more time, which just increases injury risk. To that point moving to RP could also make things worse, as they will let go a little more effort since they are throwing shorter spurts and don't need to worry about the stamina from that angle.

 

As for the body type and the core thing, that doesn't really matter as much as people think. There are all types of body styles that excel and do great work in baseball. It's not about having a certain type, it's about using the one you have effectively. David Wells, Randy Johnson, Wainwright, Sabathia, Stroman. Not just one way to go.


Agree... there isn't one way to go.  Everyone is not the same, and most should be judged as individuals... just a personal preference overall. 


But when you are saying Bundy was able to come back from his lost years and become a durable starter... for me, with my bias, I see a difference.  Even when Bundy had lost his years, I looked at who he was physically (partly the known workout regime) and believed he could overcome those injuries.   

I look at Harvey, and after he's missed basically 4 years... I'm less inclined to believe he gets past that as a starter. 

Maybe he does.  We'll see. 

I do expect they will continue to use him in a similar way as they did last year.  Hopefully he just stays on a mound. 



#15 BSLAdamMcInturff

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Posted 18 February 2019 - 07:44 PM

Part 3 up...


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#16 BSLAdamMcInturff

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Posted 19 February 2019 - 09:43 AM

Part 4 up... 


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#17 JeremyStrain

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Posted 19 February 2019 - 09:47 AM


Agree... there isn't one way to go.  Everyone is not the same, and most should be judged as individuals... just a personal preference overall. 


But when you are saying Bundy was able to come back from his lost years and become a durable starter... for me, with my bias, I see a difference.  Even when Bundy had lost his years, I looked at who he was physically (partly the known workout regime) and believed he could overcome those injuries.   

I look at Harvey, and after he's missed basically 4 years... I'm less inclined to believe he gets past that as a starter. 

Maybe he does.  We'll see. 

I do expect they will continue to use him in a similar way as they did last year.  Hopefully he just stays on a mound. 

 

No, I get what you're saying, that you had more faith in Dylan coming back healthy cause he had that built like a truck thing going, which should make him more durable. I get that part, and with a lot of injuries I agree with you.

 

But I think when it comes to the elbow and shoulder, it doesn't matter how built you are in other areas. ONE bad pitch, ONE time out of slot, ONE time with a little too much spin on a breaking pitch is all it takes. It's crazy, but it really doesn't matter how much you build up the surrounding muscles, how much strain you try to take off with your core and legs (as you should), because the stress at those two points at one given time during a delivery can wash all that out.

 

I can't help but think about Jimmy Key a little bit. He's got that same type build as Hunter. Never threw as hard as he does, but had a bunch of injury time between like 88-98 when he retired, that's over half his career with some on and off injuries. A bunch of that was elbow related, which I never understood on one level cause he's not that high velocity guy, but apparently Andrews went in a few times to remove bone chips and that was good enough to keep him going. Point being that he had great mechanics, didn't throw hard, by all means was about as low of a risk for elbow/shoulder problems as you can get, but still missed a ton of time. Probably just the nature of being a pitcher and the repetition, more than too high effort that some people get into trouble with, but he also worked through those 10 years and had a great career through it.


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#18 Nigel Tufnel

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Posted 19 February 2019 - 10:23 AM

I think it's important to give Harvey a routine for 2019.  It's easiest to do that if he's a starter, although maybe he'd need to be an opener-type for a while, to limit his innings. 

 

If you do decide to pitch him out of the bullpen, then I think I'd make it a scheduled kind of thing for the first couple of months, where he knows in advance when he'll be pitching and for how long.  But if you're going to go to all that trouble, why not just make him an opener?



#19 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 19 February 2019 - 10:25 AM

I think it's important to give Harvey a routine for 2019.  It's easiest to do that if he's a starter, although maybe he'd need to be an opener-type for a while, to limit his innings. 

 

If you do decide to pitch him out of the bullpen, then I think I'd make it a scheduled kind of thing for the first couple of months, where he knows in advance when he'll be pitching and for how long.  But if you're going to go to all that trouble, why not just make him an opener?


That's what they did with him in '18...  do expect it is what they'll do with him again in '19.



#20 Mike B

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Posted 19 February 2019 - 03:52 PM

I think it's important to give Harvey a routine for 2019.  It's easiest to do that if he's a starter, although maybe he'd need to be an opener-type for a while, to limit his innings. 

 

If you do decide to pitch him out of the bullpen, then I think I'd make it a scheduled kind of thing for the first couple of months, where he knows in advance when he'll be pitching and for how long.  But if you're going to go to all that trouble, why not just make him an opener?

They can use the Bundy blue print for Harvey.

Buck handled Bundy perfectly that first year.  He picked his spots and Bundy became a very useful BP piece.  Frankly I think the BP is a good landing spot for Harvey.  Limit the innings and be smart about where you use him.


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