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#21 Crouseman

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Posted 12 February 2019 - 08:03 AM

The Orioles have indeed signed OF Eric Young Jr. to a minor league deal. Young, who played parts of the past two seasons with the Angels, will bring a speed element to the #Orioles outfield mix this spring. The former stolen base champ is now 33. He can also play some infield.

Yawn!!!   Just like all the other cannon fodder moves Elias has made so far.  Its all good though as 100 losses and another top pick in 2020 are coming into focus.  



#22 BSLRobShields

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Posted 12 February 2019 - 08:07 AM

Rob, I'm not trying to talk you into anything....but you only have one version of everything. Everything is a Top Prospect trade. If it's not top prospects then it doesn't matter. My guess is that teams have a lot of other consideration that that.

You aren't just offering them salary relief. You are offering them the ability to better align a competitive team (avoid the issues they had when they were struggling last season) and turn a contract you don't want into Paul Goldschmidt.

1. Carlos Martinez...often considered a Cy candidate has 5 years left there.
2. Jack Flahrety blew up last year and has 5 years
3. Mikolas was their best pitcher and wants to stay in STL.

They have a series of guys that can fall in behind them with different levels of Service in Weaver, Gant, Wacha Wainwright and Gomber. They could put Hudson back in the rotation (although you have to like him as a dominant RP), they got another prospect in Helsley at AAA and you still have Reyes in that mix.

Reyes might pitch out of the bullpen this year to slowly build up his inning. He's still got 2 years of service despite not playing much yet because of injury.

I agree that they like him, but you also have zero teams talking about taking 60-70M from them. The Cardinals don't need more prospects for the 2019 season, they need to fix some of their roster challenges.

The Orioles won't help them....but they could...and if they did help them, you should expect something significant. I just have trouble seeing that in terms of what the Cards could give up if it didn't include someone like Reyes. Even then, you have to build him up and only have 4 years.


Wacha, Wainwright and Mikolos are FAs after 2019. Reyes easily will take one of their spots if he’s healthy.

They don’t need to trade him for any reason, no matter what scenarios you want to drum up. Hell, he may be an important piece for them in the rotation this year.

They can do other things to relieve some of these roster issues you talk about.

If I am them, I would rather just release Fowler than trade Reyes with him for salary/roster relief. Or Fowler is now an expensive 4th/5th OFer.

There are many ways around these things that don’t include trading one of the best pitching prospects in the game.

Your top prospect trade line doesn’t make sense to me. I don’t know what you point is there. However, what I am arguing against is that teams aren’t going to make dumb trades just because you think they should to fit some kind of roster configuration that you believe to be best.
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#23 BSLRobShields

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Posted 12 February 2019 - 08:16 AM

The broader question really isn't about what I want (certainly can discuss), it's more about there's absolutely value in doing things like that and where would you want to go with the opportunity.


Of course there is but when you discuss particular trades and ideas, that is what is going to be discussed.

It’s not exactly some out of left field idea that we should take advantage of potential opportunities to bring in some cheap, controllable young talent. That is very obvious.

The how is the actual discussion. So, your “how” in these instances don’t really make a lot of sense or become too complicated.

For instance, why not just say, deal givens and Villar to the Indians for MacKenzie, Jones and Kipnis?

Personally, I don’t think Cle does that. What are they really gaining there? Givens has the ability to be really really good, elite even...but he needs to show it this year. Cle could go out and sign a guy like Madson who could potentially give them similar numbers. If Givens was coming off a big year, I think that’s possible and I think it’s something we could potentially explore as the season goes on but we need Givens to get going first.
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#24 BSLSteveBirrer

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Posted 12 February 2019 - 08:28 AM

Dude what makes Mancini "a poor fit" for the O's? He plays two positions of need adequately enough and can hit and he is under control till 2023.



#25 BSLRobShields

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Posted 12 February 2019 - 08:34 AM

Dude what makes Mancini "a poor fit" for the O's? He plays two positions of need adequately enough and can hit and he is under control till 2023.


Because he’s not a good OFer and first base is taken for the time being...at least that’s what he will say.

He’s not a poor fit though because Davis could be gone within a year and Trumbo will be gone within a year. Mancini can be the full time DH starting next year and play in the field when needs be.
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#26 bmore_ken

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Posted 12 February 2019 - 12:24 PM

Dude what makes Mancini "a poor fit" for the O's? He plays two positions of need adequately enough and can hit and he is under control till 2023.

The real answer is he's not a poor fit. I'm not sure what his answer will be, though I'm sure it'll be entertaining. 



#27 Mike B

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Posted 12 February 2019 - 01:03 PM

The real answer is he's not a poor fit. I'm not sure what his answer will be, though I'm sure it'll be entertaining. 

There really is no answer, other than Trumbo, who will be gone as soon as possible.


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#28 dude

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Posted 12 February 2019 - 11:35 PM

Dude what makes Mancini "a poor fit" for the O's? He plays two positions of need adequately enough and can hit and he is under control till 2023.

The real answer is he's not a poor fit. I'm not sure what his answer will be, though I'm sure it'll be entertaining. 

There really is no answer, other than Trumbo, who will be gone as soon as possible.

 

Contrary to the desires of many, Davis will be the 1B for, more than likely, the next 3+ years.  That leaves DH and if we're going to make defense important (especially IF defense which I think is more consequential than OF based on opportunity and complexity) to winning then I question if you distract Mountcastle's bat with his glove.  fwiw, I rarely project younger players into the middle of the order by design, but there seems to be enough interest in RM's bat that I would plan that.  

 

I think Mancini is capable of playing a solid 1B and he deserves that opportunity and he doesn't likely get that (at least routinely) in Baltimore.

 

It's about building a Plan to compete, understanding who want to be and then shaping the roster to get there.  If he's part of it...great...if he's not....do something useful with him and put him in a good situation.

 

Davis is the 1B and I'd suggest Mountcastle has more value at DH+.  I don't need to pound Mancini into the wrong hole because.....(I'm still not sure why you guys want to)



#29 dude

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Posted 12 February 2019 - 11:46 PM

For instance, why not just say, deal givens and Villar to the Indians for MacKenzie, Jones and Kipnis?

Personally, I don’t think Cle does that. What are they really gaining there? 

 

So you make the trade worse for the Indians and then don't think Cleveland would do it.  OK.  Seems odd to criticize what I present (you present nothing) when you make it worse.  A quality cost/service controlled OFer would be important to the Indians now AND later and was part of the value you try and create for them.

 

You keep saying stuff like..."well they could just go spend more money"....but they are talking about trading Cy Young candidates to save money and transition the roster some.  Releasing guys isn't solving their problems.  

 

Givens, Villar and Bell/Martinez/Santana aren't just one-year solutions for them.  They are multi-year solutions that align with their current roster and improve opportunity as well as, if you used Kipnis, their financial position in current year..

 

We signed Eric Young.  I get it.  We aren't doing anything.



#30 dude

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Posted 12 February 2019 - 11:52 PM

Serious question for anyone that wants to answer it....

 

IF the Orioles were trying to compete and

IF you had a chance to sign Paul Goldschmidt

...would you trade DL Hall, Mancini, and Cashner with Davis' current year money (eat the deferred) for 2 prospects outside of the other teams top15 and a third guy outside the top 30? 

 

for the sake of the discussion, you have to move Davis' money to sign Goldy.



#31 BSLRobShields

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Posted 13 February 2019 - 12:03 AM

So you make the trade worse for the Indians and then don't think Cleveland would do it. OK. Seems odd to criticize what I present (you present nothing) when you make it worse. A quality cost/service controlled OFer would be important to the Indians now AND later and was part of the value you try and create for them.

You keep saying stuff like..."well they could just go spend more money"....but they are talking about trading Cy Young candidates to save money and transition the roster some. Releasing guys isn't solving their problems.

Givens, Villar and Bell/Martinez/Santana aren't just one-year solutions for them. They are multi-year solutions that align with their current roster and improve opportunity as well as, if you used Kipnis, their financial position in current year..

We signed Eric Young. I get it. We aren't doing anything.

Bell is a bad OFer though. He can’t play defense anywhere.

So, what they have is a guy who is really a DH who will be making good money to give you an 800ish OPS. He isn’t anytbing special at this point.

And f they want multiyear options, they would just keep MacKenzie and jones, all of whom have higher upside and more service time than anyone you are trading them.

And yes, I’m aware of the Indians finances...which is why I said they won’t make this trade to begin with.
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#32 BSLRobShields

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Posted 13 February 2019 - 12:05 AM

Serious question for anyone that wants to answer it....

IF the Orioles were trying to compete and
IF you had a chance to sign Paul Goldschmidt
...would you trade DL Hall, Mancini, and Cashner with Davis' current year money (eat the deferred) for 2 prospects outside of the other teams top15 and a third guy outside the top 30?

for the sake of the discussion, you have to move Davis' money to sign Goldy.

I wouldn’t do this because I don’t have interest in paying big money to a guy who will start his next contract at age 32, no matter how he has been so far in his career.

Btw, you wouldn’t find a team that will do this deal unless we are taking back a terrible contract as well.
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#33 dude

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Posted 13 February 2019 - 12:15 AM

smh



#34 BSLRobShields

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Posted 13 February 2019 - 12:16 AM

Solid analysis.
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#35 BSLRobShields

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Posted 13 February 2019 - 12:28 AM

And btw, Cle was also reportedly shopping Bauer and Carrasco(before he extended).

Yes, saving money would be helpful to them but they don’t want to spend big money on contracts and they have a deep rotation that they could deal out of if they got the right package of cheap young talent back. Thus, they were even showing the cheap guys.

It’s not like they are desperate to get rid of a great contract on Kluber...it’s just that he makes the most and probably fetches the most, so you shop him and see what’s there.
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#36 FFH

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Posted 13 February 2019 - 03:12 AM

Serious question for anyone that wants to answer it....

 

IF the Orioles were trying to compete and

IF you had a chance to sign Paul Goldschmidt

...would you trade DL Hall, Mancini, and Cashner with Davis' current year money (eat the deferred) for 2 prospects outside of the other teams top15 and a third guy outside the top 30? 

 

for the sake of the discussion, you have to move Davis' money to sign Goldy.

 

No, because it's not a matter of the chance for a guy like Goldschmidt, who is in his 30's.  There would need to be a guarantee.  

We don't know how Hall and Mancini are going to turn out with the changes in the analytical culture, so that's actually a pretty big trade risk - especially since those are MLers/top 10 prospects.  

Cashner right now should be able to fetch a couple of prospects, probably one outside top 15 and one outside top 30, because he is a back of the rotation candidate with capability.  

For Davis, why trade him unless you are getting salary relief?  You aren't going to get anything back for him right now, even for free, unless you are trading him to an overconfident organization - so if I were getting him off of the roster I would just release or reassign him. 

The O's don't really need salary relief, per se, so much as money well spent.  They have the money, but not to burn.  

The reality for Davis, though, is that he isn't getting the medication that he needs to deal with his issues.  There is a clear problem, and potentially depression for him, and I don't think that is something that simple analytics are going to solve. 

 

Overall, I would go just go the route of trying to invest that money internationally, and in prospects and development, because you are going to get far better return there. 


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#37 Mackus

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Posted 13 February 2019 - 09:06 AM

Serious question for anyone that wants to answer it....

 

IF the Orioles were trying to compete and

IF you had a chance to sign Paul Goldschmidt

...would you trade DL Hall, Mancini, and Cashner with Davis' current year money (eat the deferred) for 2 prospects outside of the other teams top15 and a third guy outside the top 30? 

 

for the sake of the discussion, you have to move Davis' money to sign Goldy.

 

Yes, I'd make that swap.



#38 BSLSteveBirrer

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Posted 13 February 2019 - 10:07 AM

Dude here's my problem with your assessment of Mancini and Mountcastle. You think Mountcastles bat plays much better if he is a DH and doesn't have to focus on defense. Ok I could make the same pitch about Mancini. At some point the O's have to get players that can hit and play at least adequate defense. 

 

I think there is room for both Mancini and Mountcastle in the lineup.


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#39 Mackus

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Posted 13 February 2019 - 10:33 AM

I don't agree that Mancini is incapable of playing adequate defense.  He's bad in the OF but not so bad that you can't play him out there regularly, he just needs to hit enough to make up for those shortcomings.  If he's converted to 1B, I expect he will be average there, not bad, but we'll need to see with time assuming he ever gets the opportunity.  He had a solid defensive reputation in the minors as a first baseman, I don't think that he will be forced to be a DH because of his defensive limitations.



#40 bmore_ken

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Posted 13 February 2019 - 01:11 PM

Contrary to the desires of many, Davis will be the 1B for, more than likely, the next 3+ years. 

Doubt it If he's hitting below the Mendoza line by the end of May. the guys that would have kept him are no longer in the dugout or front office


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