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#1 dude

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Posted 10 February 2019 - 09:45 PM

In the first off-season of 'rebuilding' the Orioles have done nothing to change the Talent in the system  That's not meant to be disrespectful to Martin or Karns or Drew Jackson, but it's hard to assume those guys move the needle for future Championships.  Hopefully, the 'other stuff' in terms of Analytics or Development will be significant and get more out of existing Talent both individually and (while it won't matter short-term) collectively. 

 

It's hard to believe ST starts this week.  Usually teams are pretty locked up right now and there's always other things (marketing, brochures, promotions, etc) that may prevent teams from making deals, but given the challenges of some of these teams even today and the unfinished nature of today's market, maybe you can still do something.

 

Couple places I'd look to add Talent.

 

CLEVELAND INDIANS: needed to add quality for their OF, relevant bullpen pieces and they appear to be considering specific options  because they are at the limit of what they'd be willing to spend.

 

I don't think Mancini is part of the Orioles future and individually, I don't see him returning impact talent.  Villar was a throw in to the Schoop trade (roster balance) and while he performed decent for the Orioles, he's unilikely to command anything significant no matter what he does the first half.  Givens has some value and you could see him performing well and adding a relevant piece.

 

If the Indians could add Josh Bell to RF, Givens to the bullpen and Villar for 2B and dump Kipnis' 17M contract, they would address 3 significant needs with quality players, controlled for several seasons as part of extended near-term winning and improve their financial position.

 

The trade should look something like..

CLE gets Bell, Givens, Villar

PIT gets Mancini, Benson, Bracho (2 interesting guys from CLE outside of top15 per mlb.com)

BAL gets [package of Talent], Kipnis

 

The Indians should feel comfortable giving up significant prospects in a deal like that.  They were willing to give up their top prospect in the Hand trade and this is significantly more value than that trade.

 

Would Triston McKenzie and Nolan Jones be enough? 

 

Given that the Indians have talked about trading Kluber or Bauer (I'd move Bauer in a heartbeat) they can certainly replenish the top of their system with quality players, even if they moved the top guys today.

 

Basically, it's open to whatever the Orioles would want to request (maybe they like other guys better).  Unless you are absurd in the ask you get to define a deal like that if you help their team that much.  You could take back Salazar and his salary too and see what happens with that arms.  If the Indians wanted some other fringe role guys (like a Castro) you can do more things inside of it.  Maybe some other teams really likes a guy in their system and you can grab a different guy and flip him for something in that team's system.

 

Quick Kipnis thought.  This will meet the same silliness that Kemp gets.  I don't want him, he serves a purpose in terms of return value.  BUT...Kipnis could embrace something like this.  Get his feet back under him in a lower pressure environment.  He could routinely expand his versatility across the diamond (the versatility every team is looking for), bat #2 or #3 and just try to get his value back up for FA next year (whereas the Indians might not be able to use him as aggressively given their need to compete) AND he's virtually guaranteed  of getting in the playoff race this season (Orioles trade him into it later)...you could even offer the Indians right of first refusal on him if they wanted him back at the end of the season.

 

Bottom line is you package up value to meet the Indians needs and get back some higher end Talent.



#2 BSLRobShields

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Posted 10 February 2019 - 09:51 PM

Cle isn’t trading those guys for that package.

Givens could fetch those guys but he has to be pitching at a higher level than we saw last year. Taking back Kipnis helps but my guess is that they could trade Kipnis and eat half his deal and not have to give up those guys.

I don’t get why Pitt trades Bell for those guys either.

I like the premise though. The Os should be looking to take on salary to get good prospects. I am disappointed that elias hasn’t done things like that thus far.
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#3 bmore_ken

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Posted 10 February 2019 - 10:20 PM

Sounds like a PS4 trade  :mrgreen:


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#4 dude

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Posted 10 February 2019 - 10:34 PM

I don’t get why Pitt trades Bell for those guys either.

 

Bell is the worst defensive 1B in MLB.  Mancini is the worst defensive OFer in MLB.

 

They are basically the exact same guy in every respect.  Service, age, performance.  Both teams have been pounding the wrong peg in the hole because they are trying to make it fit and it doesn't. I said this 2-3 years ago and it's still true.  The Pirates would be better served (winning) by simply having Mancini instead of Bell at 1B.  They lose nothing.  I was just throwing in some modest kickers to make it easy to say yes.  It improves their opportunity to win now and later.

 

fwiw, there's a number of places the Orioles could get a good OFer for the Indians as part of some other deal (like Jose Martinez from STL or Domingo Santana from SEA)  



#5 dude

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Posted 10 February 2019 - 10:46 PM

Let's be clear that we all agree that nothing happens so this is just talk when there's nothing else to talk about.

 

Cle isn’t trading those guys for that package.

 

I think you underestimate the value of that package for the Indians.

 

They would get Bell for 4 years, Givens for 3 years and Villar for 2 years.  Bell and Givens have more upside (to dream on a little) and Villar fits nicely for what they actually need. 

 

1) They improve significantly and save more than 10M in 2019 while managing some cost risk (thru Service) over the next couple years.

 

2) You are actually asking for players that the Indians have depth at (or could create some depth with their next pitching trade)....this is exactly the type of thing the Yankees did in the Chapman-Cubs deal.  You target the quality depth that is redundant in their near-term alignment.  The Indians are turning less usable pieces into highly usable pieces.  That is how you create value.

 

fwiw, I think McKenzie/Jones would be light.  You could certainly start there and if you let them protect a top guy, you find other players in the system you like.

 

Regardless of the exact return, you create significant value in a trade like that that could actually improve the opportunity to win in the future.



#6 dude

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Posted 10 February 2019 - 11:35 PM

ST LOUIS CARDINALS:  Cardinals have a number of issues this year and they view themselves as competitive in 2019.

 

The have too many OFers on the current roster including a bunch of money tied up in guys they don't want.  They played better after Fowler got hurt and Pham was dumped on TB because fit matters.  At this point, they are only playing Fowler (3/43.5) because of the contract and would likely extend significantly to move it.  Gyorko is another guy that was obsoleted when they traded for Goldschmidt and moved Carpenter over to 3B.  The PG play is a typical Cards move to sell him on STL and you'd have to give them the edge for extending him. 

 

The Cards are also loaded in pitching where they have upper level guys they can't leverage.

 

There's so many ways to work options with them, but if the Orioles were willing to take Fowler and Gyorko (1/14), what kind of package do the Cards have to put together?  Gyorko has 5M in SD$$ you could actually leave there.

 

Alex Reyes is still their top prospect but has 2 years of service and they may need to start him slow.  

Jose Martinez is a guy that doesn't fit well with their team (OF depth and defensive limitations).

Wacha has a year left at 6.35M.

 

It's actually a challenge to put something acceptable together if it doesn't include something like Reyes++.

 

If you put it together to include Alex Reyes, that's the most significant pitching add (Talent) you could likely make.



#7 JoyinMudville

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Posted 11 February 2019 - 02:52 AM

Well, it seems obvious to me that this GM is going to spend his first season focused on the upcoming draft and assembling the organizational structure to properly develop talent. It also seems clear that he wants to assess what's in the system currently which leads me to believe he doesn't really trust whatever internal reports about the players exist.

 

It will be interesting to see what he does at the trade deadline and it will be very interesting to see what he does this fall/winter but I have zero expectations that he'll do anything to significantly bolster the roster for this season.



#8 BSLRobShields

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Posted 11 February 2019 - 05:58 AM

Let's be clear that we all agree that nothing happens so this is just talk when there's nothing else to talk about.


I think you underestimate the value of that package for the Indians.

They would get Bell for 4 years, Givens for 3 years and Villar for 2 years. Bell and Givens have more upside (to dream on a little) and Villar fits nicely for what they actually need.

1) They improve significantly and save more than 10M in 2019 while managing some cost risk (thru Service) over the next couple years.

2) You are actually asking for players that the Indians have depth at (or could create some depth with their next pitching trade)....this is exactly the type of thing the Yankees did in the Chapman-Cubs deal. You target the quality depth that is redundant in their near-term alignment. The Indians are turning less usable pieces into highly usable pieces. That is how you create value.

fwiw, I think McKenzie/Jones would be light. You could certainly start there and if you let them protect a top guy, you find other players in the system you like.

Regardless of the exact return, you create significant value in a trade like that that could actually improve the opportunity to win in the future.

Yea, this is dreaming. You aren’t getting a top 50 and a top 70 prospect for that. They have more value than that.

I like Givens but there are FA relievers out there that you could still sign. Bell is fine but again, so many FAs are still there to get the same production.

Villar is decent but he’s nothing special.

Givens is the prize in this deal but he has to pitch better before he gets some better prospects. If he pitched to his capabilities in 2018, you may have something here. But he didn’t and teams aren’t trading that many top guys for a reliever coming off a poor season.

They would have to be in love with Givens and be totally unwilling to eat any of the Kipnis contract and have nowhere else to go with him and be desperate to get rid of him. I tend to doubt all of those things are true.
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#9 Mackus

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Posted 11 February 2019 - 09:29 AM

I love the basic idea.  Take back bad contracts with a promising prospect or two attached.  I especially love it when I don't think it's a given that the player with the bad deal is doomed to failure forever, and Kipnis is a guy I've long admired.

 

I don't love the idea of including Givens and Mancini in the deal.  I think you should be able to get good prospects back for either of them individually.  Or perhaps more accurately, I think if both have strong first halves as I expect they will, that we then should be able to get a real good haul for them, so I wouldn't look to deal either now as I think their value is at a low point.  If you think Mancini's 2017 was a fluke or that Givens 2018 was not and he is turning into a pumpkin, then it certainly makes sense to look to move them now (though it would've made more sense to deal them two months ago).



#10 BSLRobShields

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Posted 11 February 2019 - 10:34 AM

I love the basic idea.  Take back bad contracts with a promising prospect or two attached.  I especially love it when I don't think it's a given that the player with the bad deal is doomed to failure forever, and Kipnis is a guy I've long admired.

 

I don't love the idea of including Givens and Mancini in the deal.  I think you should be able to get good prospects back for either of them individually.  Or perhaps more accurately, I think if both have strong first halves as I expect they will, that we then should be able to get a real good haul for them, so I wouldn't look to deal either now as I think their value is at a low point.  If you think Mancini's 2017 was a fluke or that Givens 2018 was not and he is turning into a pumpkin, then it certainly makes sense to look to move them now (though it would've made more sense to deal them two months ago).

I don't disagree with you but if we could deal Givens for Kipnis, MacKenzie and Jones, I am doing that deal now.

 

The thing is, Cleveland isn't a short term thinking team.  While they want to win now, they are still payroll conscious and they aren't going to trade 2 of their better prospects for this return IMO.  

 

If I am them, I would sign someone like Ryan Madson and trade for a 1b/DH type player that can be had cheaply.  They could have Trumbo for next to nothing and the Os pick up a lot of his contract and he is just as likely to put up a 750-800 OPS as Bell is.  Yes, they wouldn't have the bat beyond 2019 but I doubt that would matter to much for them.  Wouldn't be surprised to see them go into a semi rebuilding mode after 2019.


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#11 BSLRobShields

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Posted 11 February 2019 - 10:35 AM

ST LOUIS CARDINALS:  Cardinals have a number of issues this year and they view themselves as competitive in 2019.

 

The have too many OFers on the current roster including a bunch of money tied up in guys they don't want.  They played better after Fowler got hurt and Pham was dumped on TB because fit matters.  At this point, they are only playing Fowler (3/43.5) because of the contract and would likely extend significantly to move it.  Gyorko is another guy that was obsoleted when they traded for Goldschmidt and moved Carpenter over to 3B.  The PG play is a typical Cards move to sell him on STL and you'd have to give them the edge for extending him. 

 

The Cards are also loaded in pitching where they have upper level guys they can't leverage.

 

There's so many ways to work options with them, but if the Orioles were willing to take Fowler and Gyorko (1/14), what kind of package do the Cards have to put together?  Gyorko has 5M in SD$$ you could actually leave there.

 

Alex Reyes is still their top prospect but has 2 years of service and they may need to start him slow.  

Jose Martinez is a guy that doesn't fit well with their team (OF depth and defensive limitations).

Wacha has a year left at 6.35M.

 

It's actually a challenge to put something acceptable together if it doesn't include something like Reyes++.

 

If you put it together to include Alex Reyes, that's the most significant pitching add (Talent) you could likely make.

The Cards still love Reyes for what I have read.

 

They wouldn't deal him just for salary relief.


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#12 BSLSteveBirrer

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Posted 11 February 2019 - 11:54 AM

Not a fan of dealing Givens and Mancini till we see how this first half shakes out.

 

1. I disagree that Trey couldn't be part of the next good team.

2. I don't get trading two of your better players for minor league talent when the entire premise of the thread was "Add Talent".  Neither of those deals is adding its swapping.


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#13 Nigel Tufnel

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Posted 11 February 2019 - 03:57 PM

The Orioles have indeed signed OF Eric Young Jr. to a minor league deal. Young, who played parts of the past two seasons with the Angels, will bring a speed element to the #Orioles outfield mix this spring. The former stolen base champ is now 33. He can also play some infield.



#14 BSLRobShields

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Posted 11 February 2019 - 03:59 PM


Joe TrezzaVerified account @JoeTrezz 1h1 hour ago


More


The Orioles have indeed signed OF Eric Young Jr. to a minor league deal. Young, who played parts of the past two seasons with the Angels, will bring a speed element to the #Orioles outfield mix this spring. The former stolen base champ is now 33. He can also play some infield.


This seems like the appropriate thread to put this nugget in! :)
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#15 Nigel Tufnel

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Posted 11 February 2019 - 04:00 PM

I looked for the add mediocre vets thread, but I couldn't find it!


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#16 dude

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Posted 11 February 2019 - 09:30 PM

Not a fan of dealing Givens and Mancini till we see how this first half shakes out.

1. I disagree that Trey couldn't be part of the next good team.
2. I don't get trading two of your better players for minor league talent when the entire premise of the thread was "Add Talent". Neither of those deals is adding its swapping.


I like Mancini, but he's a poor fit for this team. Mad props for what the guy has become, but it's still a poor fit. When I talk about trades from other teams, I talk about targeting 'poor fits'. The same thing applies to considering players on the Orioles. You don't have to keep him because you drafted him. If he doesn't fit here, find someplace he does.

I like Givens too and more mad props for turning "drafted as a SS" into a good RP....but again...what purpose does he serve the Orioles right now? Cleveland needs good RPs. He's a guy that was rumored on their radar. He's much more valuable to the Indians than the Orioles and the Orioles have a bunch of guys they need to give innings to.

Are the Orioles "just swapping Talent"? Sort of, but unless you think the Orioles window starts next year, these players aren't aligned with a competitive Orioles team. Most people are talking about 4 or more years.

The point is to add Talent that A) has a bigger impact on winning and B) add talent that is better aligned [Service] with what they are doing.

#17 dude

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Posted 11 February 2019 - 09:56 PM

The Cards still love Reyes for what I have read.

 

They wouldn't deal him just for salary relief.

 

Rob, I'm not trying to talk you into anything....but you only have one version of everything.  Everything is a Top Prospect trade.  If it's not top prospects then it doesn't matter.  My guess is that teams have a lot of other consideration that that.

 

You aren't just offering them salary relief.  You are offering them the ability to better align a competitive team (avoid the issues they had when they were struggling last season) and turn a contract you don't want into Paul Goldschmidt.

 

1. Carlos Martinez...often considered a Cy candidate has 5 years left there.

2.  Jack Flahrety blew up last year and has 5 years

3. Mikolas was their best pitcher and wants to stay in STL.

 

They have a series of guys that can fall in behind them with different levels of Service in Weaver, Gant, Wacha Wainwright and Gomber.  They could put Hudson back in the rotation (although you have to like him as a dominant RP), they got another prospect in Helsley at AAA and you still have Reyes in that mix.

 

Reyes might pitch out of the bullpen this year to slowly build up his inning.  He's still got 2 years of service despite not playing much yet because of injury.

 

I agree that they like him, but you also have zero teams talking about taking 60-70M from them.  The Cardinals don't need more prospects for the 2019 season, they need to fix some of their roster challenges. 

 

The Orioles won't help them....but they could...and if they did help them, you should expect something significant.  I just have trouble seeing that in terms of what the Cards could give up if it didn't include someone like Reyes.  Even then, you have to build him up and only have 4 years.



#18 dude

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Posted 11 February 2019 - 10:04 PM

The broader question really isn't about what I want (certainly can discuss), it's more about there's absolutely value in doing things like that and where would you want to go with the opportunity.



#19 Mike B

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Posted 11 February 2019 - 10:32 PM

Not a fan of dealing Givens and Mancini till we see how this first half shakes out.

 

1. I disagree that Trey couldn't be part of the next good team.

2. I don't get trading two of your better players for minor league talent when the entire premise of the thread was "Add Talent".  Neither of those deals is adding its swapping.

I agree.  I think a trade of Givens becomes more likely as the seasons progresses.  He seems like a July candidate to me/

Mancini at this time is worth more to the Orioles than what they would get in a trade.

There are free agents out there, that can be signed reasonably for teams ion  need of a corner outfielder, or first baseman.


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#20 russsnyder

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Posted 12 February 2019 - 05:18 AM

I agree. I think a trade of Givens becomes more likely as the seasons progresses. He seems like a July candidate to me/
Mancini at this time is worth more to the Orioles than what they would get in a trade.
There are free agents out there, that can be signed reasonably for teams ion need of a corner outfielder, or first baseman.


I agree.

Trading Mancini and Givens now would be the definition of selling low since both are coming off subpar ( hopefully ) years.

However, I have no issue trading one or both of them if they net a nice return this year. I like Mancini, but I agree with Dude that he is most likely not going to be a part of a contending Orioles team. If Givens turns it around he may be coveted by several teams at the trading deadline. I agree that it is too early in the season to be trading to add talent.
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