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BSL: Previewing Week 17: Browns at Ravens


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#1 BSLGabeFerguson

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Posted 27 December 2018 - 03:40 PM

One game to decide the season. The Ravens were seconds away from making it last year, can they exorcise those demons and win the biggest game of the season at home? Anyone who thinks the Browns will be an easy win has not been paying attention, but the Ravens have much more on the line. I think they get it done.

 

 

https://www.baltimor...-browns-ravens/


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#2 jkough1

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Posted 27 December 2018 - 04:33 PM

I've panned the Jackson led offense for not being good enough against bad defense. Take a look at the Browns competition during that span as well:

 

Falcons

@Cin 

@Hou (the loss and held to 13 points)

Car

@Denver (held to 17)

Cin

 

So the two decent defense they faced, they were held to 15 ppg. Both games on the road, as well. 

 

I think we'll see the Browns offense struggle in this game. I believe in the level of competition making a difference. 



#3 BSLRobShields

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Posted 27 December 2018 - 04:34 PM

Denzel Ward likely being out is huge.
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#4 jkough1

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Posted 27 December 2018 - 04:35 PM

Honestly, I"m a little surprised to see their DVOA so high, given it's supposed to be adjusted for defense and they only cracked 30 total points once in that stretch. 



#5 BSLSeanJester

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Posted 27 December 2018 - 04:42 PM

Honestly, I"m a little surprised to see their DVOA so high, given it's supposed to be adjusted for defense and they only cracked 30 total points once in that stretch. 

 

That's because DVOA is a dogshit stat.


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#6 jkough1

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Posted 27 December 2018 - 04:54 PM

That's because DVOA is a dogshit stat.

 

I don't agree with this, lol. But, I do think them being ranked so high over the past six weeks stands out to me.

 

It also tells me, that actually in some ways, DVOA agrees with Mike, in that they don't overly weight opposing team performance too highly. In some ways, this actually kind of justifies what some folks have been saying about the required adjustments to performance.

 

I'm a fan of DVOA...shrug. (Not so much PFF).



#7 JStruds

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Posted 27 December 2018 - 05:35 PM

I've panned the Jackson led offense for not being good enough against bad defense. Take a look at the Browns competition during that span as well:

Falcons
@Cin
@Hou (the loss and held to 13 points)
Car
@Denver (held to 17)
Cin

So the two decent defense they faced, they were held to 15 ppg. Both games on the road, as well.

I think we'll see the Browns offense struggle in this game. I believe in the level of competition making a difference.


Control the ball, score 23 and knock Mayfield around early and they win the game.
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#8 jkough1

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Posted 27 December 2018 - 05:58 PM

Cleveland isn't going to score 20 points if we control the clock or not IMO. I didn't think SD was going to score 20+ on us either. 



#9 Mackus

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Posted 27 December 2018 - 06:37 PM

23 feels like a number that should stand up, perhaps even if the offense allows a defensive TD for Cleveland.

#10 bmore_ken

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Posted 27 December 2018 - 07:13 PM


That's because DVOA is a dogshit stat.


I agree

#11 JohnnyK27

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Posted 27 December 2018 - 07:54 PM

I expect the Ravens to win....I think the Browns also have a good defense.

#12 BSLGabeFerguson

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Posted 27 December 2018 - 08:32 PM

Honestly, I"m a little surprised to see their DVOA so high, given it's supposed to be adjusted for defense and they only cracked 30 total points once in that stretch.


It's not a scoring metric, so that is probably a big part of it...they move the ball well. Chubb has been outstanding, and Mayfield tok of course.
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#13 85Knight

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Posted 27 December 2018 - 10:51 PM

That's because DVOA is a dogshit stat.


Yeah I'm old school too. When you start talking about indoor vs. outdoor, playing good defenses vs. bad defenses, etc. I lose faith in the objectivity of the metrics. It's called paralysis by analysis.
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#14 BSLMikeRandall

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Posted 28 December 2018 - 08:38 AM

Yeah I'm old school too. When you start talking about indoor vs. outdoor, playing good defenses vs. bad defenses, etc. I lose faith in the objectivity of the metrics. It's called paralysis by analysis.


I get what they are trying to do. But they also say on the site they got here with a ton of trial of error. Which means the metric was tried until it fit what they wanted it to fit. That shouldn’t be the case. For example if DVOA made Drew Brees look other worldly they would add in a factor to give less credit to indoors games. In reality, Drew Brees is other worldly and owns a bunch of records for a reason. Just have a equation spit out a number and that’s a stat. Whatever it is. I like the other stats FO offers. I like the stats PFF offers. But PFF grades, DVOA, when youre assigning points to occurances, there are going to be biases involved.

I think opponent weighted stats are great for college. KenPom in basketball weights offensives and defensive ratings (points per 100 possessions) Because playing Kansas is way different than playing Coppin St. S+P from FO is a good one that is opponent adjusted because Alabama and UConn are completely different. That kind of talent gap isn’t even close to existing in the NFL. So the adjustments had better be extremely minimal. In the NFL a 10 point spread is pretty rare. In college football you get spreads into the 20s often, 30s and 40s too.
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#15 BSLRobShields

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Posted 28 December 2018 - 09:13 AM

There are biases in all stats.
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#16 BSLMikeRandall

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Posted 28 December 2018 - 09:40 AM


There are biases in all stats.


There is no biases in arithmetic. Most Statistics are just that.
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#17 BSLRobShields

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Posted 28 December 2018 - 09:45 AM

There is no biases in arithmetic. Most Statistics are just that.


Of course there is.

If you have a stellar game but your opponent is terrible, that takes away things.

For example, some are saying to throw out the Buffalo game. Why? That game happened. Buffalo is a top
Defense. Why throw it away?

Stats are numbers that you can interpret any way you want. Your own biases dictate what value you want to put on them.

Now, there are stats that “actually happened”. If you just take those at face value and don’t want to “dig deeper”, that’s fine...but that doesn’t mean it’s a good stat.
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#18 Mackus

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Posted 28 December 2018 - 10:28 AM

Data is the raw information.

Statistics are the analysis of that data.

#19 BSLMichaelWeber

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Posted 28 December 2018 - 11:00 AM


For example, some are saying to throw out the Buffalo game. Why? That game happened. Buffalo is a top
Defense. Why throw it away?

Reasons, obvious ones at that, have been given. Any statistical analysis of points per game comparing Joe vs Lamar that doesn't acknowledge what a trainwreck Buffalo was in that game and that 20 of the Ravens points came on "drives" totally 20 yards is flawed to say the least.

Joe himself doesn't fare well at all in PPG if you compare his last 4 starts to his first 4 starts (or even adding the Cleveland game).

Way too much of the pro Joe statistical argument is based on that Buffalo game, the first game of the year, for honest and reasonable people to be comfortable with it.

That doesn't necessarily mean that the game should be completely thrown out, but there should be significant consideration to when that game happened, how / why they scored so much, and how much an outlier it is.

Speaking of throwing things out, you seem to like to throw out the best offensive plays in the Lamar games to make some point of how they do in the rest of the plays. Interesting approach.

But on the other side of the stat argument, the choice by a few to ignore the strength of opponent defenses in Lamar's starts is cringeworthy imo.

One other piece of data to consider in this whole debate is that points per game are down leaguewide in the span of Lamar's starts compared to Joe's. So if there was an ERA+ type of stat for points per game adjusted by each week's scoring level, that would favor Lamar more so than the standard approach.

Back to DVOA, I think it's a very good stat, but as I mentioned in a different thread, it's biggest limitation imo is that it doesn't account for injuries or how well a team is playing at a specific point. So you can catch a team at a very favorable time (like when they decide to start one of the worst QB's to start in modern football history) and that's not considered. Therefore you get a nice and not completely warranted 1 game's worth of DVOA boost in a season that isn't long enough and has too many key injuries for the assumption of everything evening out to exist.

#20 BSLRobShields

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Posted 28 December 2018 - 11:02 AM

I’m ok with throwing out outliers..however, in the context of what Mike is talking about things, throwing things out is dumb.

He seems to want to talk about things that happened. He wants to throw out “biases” (which I think he is overstating).

It’s like saying, let’s look at BA but not WAR.
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