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MASN: Revisiting Elias’ comments on Davis


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#41 DJ MC

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Posted 09 December 2018 - 08:57 PM

"Infield dirt" is a worse rule, IMO. There are times you play on the grass, in front or behind the dirt, in a standard defensive alignment.


A shift is a standard defensive alignment.
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#42 Mackus

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Posted 09 December 2018 - 09:14 PM


A shift is a standard defensive alignment.

No it isnt, obviously, or else it wouldn't be called a shift.

#43 DJ MC

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Posted 09 December 2018 - 09:23 PM

No it isnt, obviously, or else it wouldn't be called a shift.


Sure.
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#44 Dystopia

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Posted 10 December 2018 - 10:11 AM

All these "slippery slope" worries and nonsensical rules can be avoided if hitters just adjusted. Don't like the 2B playing in right field? Cool.  Hit it over to third. Nobody's playing over there. Do it enough times they'll stop shifting on you. Easy peasy.



#45 Mackus

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Posted 10 December 2018 - 10:18 AM

All these "slippery slope" worries and nonsensical rules can be avoided if hitters just adjusted. Don't like the 2B playing in right field? Cool.  Hit it over to third. Nobody's playing over there. Do it enough times they'll stop shifting on you. Easy peasy.

 

Agreed.  By far the best solution to this "problem" is to do nothing.  If the frequent shifting weeds out a certain type of hitter, or even if it has a noticeable effect on offensive run scoring overall, so be it.

 

I do think fans overestimate the degree to which hitters have the ability to hit the ball the other way on the ground, which is what would be needed to beat the shift.  Going the other way on line drives and fly balls is something you can do while still being able to hit with power and aggressiveness.  But to hit a ground ball the other way is difficult without it being very similar to a sacrifice.  If you think of hitters in recent memory who were terrific at going the other way with inside-out swings, such as Jeter, they still weren't hitting ground balls the other way as to beat the shift.  They were usually just hitting solid liners over the infield the other way.  The bulk of Jeter's ground balls were still pulled, it's liners and flyballs that he hits the other way with high regularity.



#46 weird-O

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Posted 10 December 2018 - 10:35 AM

All these "slippery slope" worries and nonsensical rules can be avoided if hitters just adjusted. Don't like the 2B playing in right field? Cool.  Hit it over to third. Nobody's playing over there. Do it enough times they'll stop shifting on you. Easy peasy.

In the case of Davis, the response to your suggestion would be "that's the desired effect of the shift". The thinking is, your opponent would rather have Davis bunt/slap a single toward 3B than to have him send one into the right field stands. And then there was Buck's response (and I'm paraphrasing) "Davis isn't here to bunt, he's here to drive in runs". 

 

I disagree with all of that thinking, especially once Davis pretty much stopped driving in runs all together. Davis standing on 1B, is significantly better than Davis sitting on the bench, all dejected.

 

I did extensive research on this subject, and I arrived at a statistical revelation. A hitter that is retired by the shift, has never scored. Shocking, I know. My conclusion, a runner on 1B has a much better chance of crossing the plate, than a player sitting on the bench. 


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#47 BSLMikeLowe

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Posted 10 December 2018 - 03:54 PM

Except it's really hard to hit ground balls to the opposite field and when you try, and even if you can do it, you're typically giving up power. I think Weird-o is is right that you'll eventually see changes in strategy, skills evaluation and development at some point (assuming they don't implement a shift ban), but I don't see it happening any time soon ...at least not anything dramatic. 

 

Do we not see more of that approach against shifts because it's too difficult, or is it because the players are simply unwilling? With the current all-or-nothing approach many hitters take today, I can imagine a scenario where a guy like Davis would rather K while taking his hacks or be out on that screaming liner at the 2B in shallow right, as opposed to facing a razzing from his teammates for hitting a dribbler down the third baseline, even if it gets him on base.


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#48 DJ MC

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Posted 10 December 2018 - 08:53 PM

Do we not see more of that approach against shifts because it's too difficult, or is it because the players are simply unwilling? With the current all-or-nothing approach many hitters take today, I can imagine a scenario where a guy like Davis would rather K while taking his hacks or be out on that screaming liner at the 2B in shallow right, as opposed to facing a razzing from his teammates for hitting a dribbler down the third baseline, even if it gets him on base.


The point I'm hearing from analysts is that it isn't an issue of unwillingness, but lack of incentive. Because pitchers throw SO hard SO often now, batters are less likely to be able to control their swings enough to control the direction of the ball. So this combines with the prevalence of launch-angles and hit velocity to make batters just want to hit the ball hard, which will naturally go to their pull side. So banning the shift won't solve the basic problem.
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#49 CA-ORIOLE

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Posted 11 December 2018 - 02:16 AM

Do we not see more of that approach against shifts because it's too difficult, or is it because the players are simply unwilling? With the current all-or-nothing approach many hitters take today, I can imagine a scenario where a guy like Davis would rather K while taking his hacks or be out on that screaming liner at the 2B in shallow right, as opposed to facing a razzing from his teammates for hitting a dribbler down the third baseline, even if it gets him on base.

If Davis tries to hit a GB to the opposite field it's far more likely he's down 1 or 2 strikes to start out the AB (more than likely leading to another K) than anything positive (the best result being a single) coming out of it. Think abut it. Who in baseball is good at it? Markakis may be one of the best imo. As good as he is he's barely an above average hitter. It's hard. There's a reason why power guys are look to put balls in the air and less on the ground and why the shift has become more and more predominant. If it could be easily or even reasonably countered it already would have been done.  



#50 CA-ORIOLE

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Posted 11 December 2018 - 02:28 AM

The point I'm hearing from analysts is that it isn't an issue of unwillingness, but lack of incentive. Because pitchers throw SO hard SO often now, batters are less likely to be able to control their swings enough to control the direction of the ball. So this combines with the prevalence of launch-angles and hit velocity to make batters just want to hit the ball hard, which will naturally go to their pull side. So banning the shift won't solve the basic problem.

Eventually we may see more bat control, less K's and speed be better developed and rewarded (maybe it is in some cases.....Braves for example) if there's a reward/benefit. We aren't there yet and banning the shift isn't go to help get us there.  






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