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BSL: Weber's 2018-19 NBA Preview Series


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#1 BSLMichaelWeber

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Posted 14 October 2018 - 11:57 AM

I know there isn't the strongest collection of NBA fans on the board, but for those that are into The Association, I will have 4 articles over the next few days previewing the season.

 

NBA East Over / Under Predictions: https://www.baltimor...st-predictions/

 

To come:

 

NBA West Over / Under Predictions: https://www.baltimor...st-predictions/

 

Big Questions: https://www.baltimor...2018-19-season/

 

And MVP prediction / Legacy Watch: https://www.baltimor...y-implications/


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#2 Pedro Cerrano

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Posted 14 October 2018 - 12:01 PM

Can we invite Nickle back just for a week to let him comment on the Legacy Watch award?

There is baseball, and occasionally there are other things of note

"Now OPS sucks.  Got it."

"Making his own olive brine is peak Mackus."

"I'm too hungover to watch a loss." - McNulty

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#3 BSLMichaelWeber

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Posted 14 October 2018 - 12:13 PM

My East over / under predictions are up.



#4 BSLMichaelWeber

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Posted 14 October 2018 - 12:13 PM

Can we invite Nickle back just for a week to let him comment on the Legacy Watch award?

 

Haha



#5 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 14 October 2018 - 08:29 PM

- The Danny Green acquisition could be good for Toronto as you mentioned. Know there were health issues last year. Not familiar with Pascal Siakam, will have to check him out.

 

- Agree the Bulls could be fun to watch, but not good.

 

- I like Thon Maker. At least the athleticism.

 

- I think Atlanta made the wrong call with Trae Young, but he is interesting to watch. Hoping Huerter comes on during the year, and we get to watch them throw up a bunch of 3s.

 

- Saw Winslow got the extension... is he capable of making a leap?

 

- Think you nailed the Hornets take. 

 

- I could see the Cavs being around .500 if Sexton is a consistent shooter, and Rodney Hood is the guy he was with Utah.

 

- Also like Detroit under 38.

 

- Turner minutes dropped some last year (Sabonis?). Am interested to see if he becomes that All-Star level guy.

 

- Think it's awesome you took over the with Celts at 58. They do seem like a group that will be motivated throughout. Am interested to see how everyone blends. Heyward is on the record saying the 2nd surgery he had pushed his preparation back. Might be awhile until he looks right, but they certainly have the depth to get around that.

 

- Yeah, the Magic trading some of that Front Court for guards / wings makes sense. 

 

- Agreed about the losses of lyasova and Belinelli.  Lots of eyes on Fultz. I want to see if Simmons has made any improvement shooting.

 

- Agreed about the Howard chemistry concerns. Do think he played well down the stretch last year. Maybe Wall and Howard can make it work. Beal and Wall staying healthy would be fun.

 

- Sean Marks has done a good job with the Nets. Been a long road getting past their trade with the Celtics.  They've got some cap space I believe, and future picks. It's not a good roster, but like you said, there are some decent players.


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#6 BSLMichaelWeber

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Posted 14 October 2018 - 08:57 PM

I agree that ATL made the wrong call with Young, but he can still be good, I just wouldn't expect him to be a positive this year.

Same with Sexton.

Winslow better make a leap if he is ever going to reach "his floor." 😁

Yeah, Heyward has been slower in his recovery than expected, but they're still loaded, especially at the wing.

#7 BSLSethBondroff

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Posted 14 October 2018 - 10:12 PM

Great work, Weber! 

 

Hopefully lots of good NBA conversation this season. 


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#8 BSLMichaelWeber

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Posted 15 October 2018 - 06:36 PM

My Western Conference over / under predictions are up.

 

https://www.baltimor...st-predictions/


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#9 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 15 October 2018 - 08:13 PM

- Feel like the Spurs need to go out and get another PG after losing Murray. Guess Patty Mills is going to start?

- Jazz are a fun watch. That's a pretty deep team. If Exum makes another leap (and Thon Maker as discussed yesterday does same); Team Australia that much better looking (Simmons, Baynes, Ingles, Mills).

- I had missed the Rockets picking up Brandon Knight.

- One reserve trying to make the Warriors is Baltimore's Damion Lee.

- I liked McGee for the Lakers. Think they are going to be fun. If Ingram breaks out they can be ahead of schedule, and agreed about the comments on Hart.

- Looks like there is still no timetable for Porter Jr, but he says he's pain free. Baltimore's Will Barton coming off a good year. Denver does have a good group.

- Seems like a lifetime ago when Sacramento was good. Coming out of college, I thought Cauley-Stein had a chance to be like De'Andre Jordan. What more do they get out of Jackson and Hield? Looks like Bogdoanovic is out a few weeks? I've always liked Zach Randolph.

- Jrue Holiday is much better than I realized before the playoffs last year. Like Mirotic. Can they get some production from Randle and Payton? Okafor went 17.5, and 7 boards as a rookie... if he's healthy, he should be a contributor right? Last two years, just 78 combined games.

- Tobias Harris had a pretty good year last year. Miles Bridges and Jerome Robinson should get plenty of run, no?

- Totally on-board with the over with the Mavericks.

- I'll go over with OKC. I love their main trio. Andre Roberson was only available for 39 games last year. His defense should help. Noel was poor with Dallas last year. Think he might be able to rebound and be a useful reserve.

- Nurkic is better than I realized. Layman was mentioned by the Blazers staff as having the best off-season. They could use him to give them something. Agree they win less than the 49 they won last year, but more than the 42 over/under.

- How good is Jackson immediately for Memphis? Kyle Anderson a decent pick up. Chandler Parsons getting back to what he was, would go along ways to them being respectable.

- Josh Okogie, and Bates-Diop adding to the rotation would help. Will Wiggins commit to playing some D? Didn't Towns say he wants to be in the conversation for best ever? That's a big statement. If the trio brings it every night, that's a good team. Obviously combustible though.

#10 BSLMikeLowe

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Posted 15 October 2018 - 10:27 PM

One note on the Trail Blazers, as it relates to Paul Allen's passing today. Technically, the Blazers (and Seahawks) are owned by Vulcan Inc. an investment company of which Allen was the founder and largest shareholder. Allen was a huge basketball/NBA fan, so he was willing to see to it that the Blazers spent pretty generously for a small market team.

 

With Allen gone, it seems very likely that Vulcan will be looking much closer at the Blazers' bottom line from now on. I mention that because the Blazers are currently set to carry a cap number of over $135 million this season, while the league's luxury tax threshold is $123.7 million. They fortunately dipped just below the tax line last season (by only about $10,000, but it still counts), so they aren't going to be hit as a repeat offender. Still, that $12 million they are over will end up costing them over $20 million once the numbers are added up.

 

That's a big bill to absorb for investors who are pretty much just in it for the money. And their roster is mostly loaded with guys who are either grossly overpaid, or guys they signed on the cheap/rookie contracts. So when the order comes down from Vulcan to trim payroll, that just might leave Lillard or McCollum as the only tradeable assets that will get them under the tax. And if one or both of them are gone....well, take the under. Big time.


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#11 BSLMikeLowe

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Posted 15 October 2018 - 11:19 PM

- Nurkic is better than I realized. Layman was mentioned by the Blazers staff as having the best off-season. They could use him to give them something. Agree they win less than the 49 they won last year, but more than the 42 over/under.


If nothing else, it looks like Jake might get a chance, at least to start the season. It's sounding more and more like Moe Harkless will not be healthy enough to play on Thursday, and Stotts wants to keep Evan Turner as the main ball-handler off the bench. Layman started at SF in the preseason for them, and did reasonably well. Of course, that was preseason. And if he plays Thursday, he may well end up having to guard....LeBron.



#12 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 16 October 2018 - 07:44 PM

Wonder if Rozier is obtainable for San Antonio?



#13 BSLMichaelWeber

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Posted 16 October 2018 - 08:05 PM

Wonder if Rozier is obtainable for San Antonio?


Could be, but I don't think that makes much sense for either team. Rozier is valuable to Boston right now and they're a legit contender so they should keep him unless they're blown away. And what does Rozier do for San Antonio besides help them compete for the 7 or 8 seed? By next year they'll want Murray to be their starting point guard again.

#14 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 16 October 2018 - 08:59 PM

Could be, but I don't think that makes much sense for either team. Rozier is valuable to Boston right now and they're a legit contender so they should keep him unless they're blown away. And what does Rozier do for San Antonio besides help them compete for the 7 or 8 seed? By next year they'll want Murray to be their starting point guard again.


Isn't Rozier their 3rd string PG? Minutes figure to be pretty limited, pending FA. Chance to get another pick back?

SA doesn't have enough to win, but don't think they will play for the future..so a quick guard, with some offensive skills for the year?

Do think you make valid points, that even if he is 3rd string now..Boston is going for a title..might be more valuable vs obtaining another pick..also agree SA better off playing for next year vs trying to claw into the postseason.

#15 BSLRobShields

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Posted 16 October 2018 - 09:27 PM

Depth is part of what makes Boston so good...add to that Kyrie’s injury history and I think you need to keep him for insurance.
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#16 BSLMichaelWeber

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Posted 16 October 2018 - 09:29 PM

Rozier is on the second unit.

He played 26.5 minutes tonight.
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#17 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 16 October 2018 - 09:34 PM

Rozier is on the second unit.

He played 26.5 minutes tonight.


Fair enough. So Smart is the 3rd PG?

#18 BSLMichaelWeber

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Posted 16 October 2018 - 09:37 PM

Fair enough. So Smart is the 3rd PG?


Smart is the other backup guard. They're somewhat interchangeable in terms of position, but Rozier is more of a 1.

#19 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 16 October 2018 - 09:40 PM

Smart is the other backup guard. They're somewhat interchangeable in terms of position, but Rozier is more of a 1.


And I see Smart also had 25 mts, so they found way for all to get time. So illustrates your point.

#20 BSLMichaelWeber

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Posted 16 October 2018 - 09:43 PM

And I see Smart also had 25 mts, so they found way for all to get time. So illustrates your point.


Yeah, and it's not like Boston needs anything the Spurs would offer to help them win now.

They also already have great future assets, but that said, I wouldn't put it past Danny to prioritize the future over the present.




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