Camden Chat: Orioles farm system places dead last in Keith Law’s rankings
BSL: Baltimore Orioles Top 30 Prospects As 2018 Ends
Posted 05 February 2019 - 09:31 AM
I have no idea how other teams systems look, but I think our system currently is better than it has been in several past seasons when we weren't rated quite as low by the consensus. So comparing to ourselves, I think we're ok. Not great, but not dreadful.
I am very intrigued to see how Elias does in his first few drafts and how that differs from past drafting.
Posted 07 February 2019 - 08:51 PM
Couple general comments first.
1) Expectations change as seasons pass and the Orioles had an unexpectedly good MiL season in 2017. Everyone gets excited, but the reality of helium over a short period can deflate just as quickly.
2) The challenge of trying to "win" trades by leveraging quantity over quality may make you feel better short term, but when you ultimately lack impact, quantity doesn't really play in rankings as well as quality.
On Law: This seems like a disingenuous ranking that panders to Elias while throwing the Orioles under the bus.
1) There's a 0% chance the Orioles have the worst system in MLB. Let's wait until some of the new publications come out with their current lists, but there's any number of teams that would trade with the Orioles.
2) Law can do this because he doesn't have to care about Dan and Buck who aren't in Baseball right now. It's easy to prop up others (teams) you need a relationship with and you use those you don't have to have a relationship with (or are comfortable running your bus up on the sidewalk) to set them up. ALso, this sets up his relationship with Elias. A year from now, he'll rank them 15th or whatever and proclaim..."Mike took them from last to middle of the pack in just 10 months!" It's cheap way of improving you cred.
3) His comments reflect a bias in his ranking, not to the talent, but to the process. Your system is your system. How you got there doesn't really matter. DL Hall isn't worse because you don't like their development history with pitchers or the Orioles don't use the International market.
Beyond that, the system has NOTHING to do with the Orioles 2018 record (Law: "...the system has fallen apart, which is how they ended up with the worst record in baseball..."). That's as disingenuous as you get. Your 2018 Major League record isn't reflective of your system and if you try and align it like that for whatever reasons you have a different agenda.
The Orioles don't have a great system. If you don't like some of the guys (especially the guys they got back in trade), I could see you going into the 20s, maybe even 25, but you really have to not like some guys that are generally considered projectable.
If you really like some of these guys, maybe you get as high as 15.
You tell me you're between 15 and 24, great, share your argument.
You tell me they are top10 or #30, you have some other agenda.
fwiw, the Orioles did a poor job of acquiring and developing talent over the last 7 years.
Other than an early Machado pick, it's still a better system than the Orioles had entering the 2012 season after 4+ years of 'rebuilding' under MacPhail.
If the Orioles had any real strategy for adding talent, it feels like a top 15, maybe even top10 system, would be a pretty reasonable expectation.
They've made dumb trades.
They don't add younger players outside of guys falling off other teams rosters.
They've given away draft picks.
They didn't use the IFA market despite having the 'Shark of Caribbean' for 6 years.
They haven't developed particularly well....
....and they STILL have a decent system considering they posted the best record in the AL from 2012 to 2016.
- jkough1 likes this
Posted 08 February 2019 - 09:13 AM
You can probably argue anything from middle of the pack to bottom third.
- BSLBobPhelan likes this
Posted 08 February 2019 - 01:55 PM
Obviously, propsect ranking and (by extension) team minor league system rankings are going to vary, so I wouldn't get too spun up on Law's ranking. Not that I agree, but I think a valid argument can be made that the Orioles have one of, if not the worst farm systems in baseball. It all depends on how an individual values the players within the system. I agree that there could be some bias in Law's ranking due to the lack of player development successes compared to other teams, and ideally that should be left out during consideration. It will be interesting to see where some of the other publications rank the Orioles system
- BSLChrisStoner likes this
Posted 09 February 2019 - 10:46 AM
I agree that there could be some bias in Law's ranking due to the lack of player development successes compared to other teams, and ideally that should be left out during consideration.
...but here's the issue with this. If Law is dinging the Orioles prospect list because of their lack of historical development, but he thinks Elias is the right guy, then why would you be dinging the Orioles moving forward?
Either it's a Talent assessment (independent of development) or it's an assessment of the ability to get that Talent to where they are capable of going (includes development).
If you think the Orioles have less [absolute value] Talent than any other team I'd say that's a bad assessment.
If you say the Orioles haven't shown an ability to develop Talent but like Elias, then there's no reason to ding the Talent in this assessment. Elias is here.
Teams like the Cubs, DBacks, Philllies, Angels, Mets and even the RedSox would swap systems with the Orioles today.
Posted 11 February 2019 - 10:13 AM
Sickles moved to The Athletic, and just posted his top 100, plus a few sleepers for each team. He had 3 O's in his top 100:
47) Yusniel Diaz, OF, Baltimore Orioles, (Grade B+): Age 22, acquired from Dodgers in Manny Machado deal, hit .285/.392/.449 with 11 homers, 12 steals, 59 walks in 354 at-bats in Double-A; nice approach, draws walks and makes consistent hard contact; still learning to tap his power but crushes on the right day; strong throwing arm and speed give him defensive value; ETA late 2019.
54) DL Hall, LHP, Baltimore Orioles, (Grade B+): Age 20, first-round pick in 2017, 2.10 ERA with a 100/42 K/BB in Low-A; high-K, low-Hit profile with low/mid-90s fastball and plus curve; change-up and control need work but typical for his age; mid-rotation upside; ETA 2022.
65) Ryan Mountcastle, 3B, Baltimore Orioles, (Grade B+): Age 21, hit .297/.341/.464 with 13 homers in Double-A; pure hitter with growing power, should contribute high batting averages; main problem is weak defense and poor arm; may move to left field; ETA 2020.
Baltimore Orioles: Adam Hall, SS; Brenan Hanifee, RHP
- BSLBobPhelan likes this
Posted 11 February 2019 - 05:15 PM
One of the relatively few mentions of Adam Hall. I think he's an intriguing guy who gets lost in the SS shuffle. He was a 2nd round pick, played at Aberdeen at 19 last year which is on the young side for that league. Started horribly at the plate then finished really strong. Plus speed with solid SB success so far and from what little I've read he's expected to remain at SS.
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