Photo

Camden Depot: Can Victor Victor Mesa Gamble Himself into Big Money?


  • Please log in to reply
60 replies to this topic

#1 BSLChrisStoner

BSLChrisStoner

    Owner

  • Administrators
  • 101,208 posts

Posted 04 August 2018 - 08:31 AM

Camden Depot: Can Victor Victor Mesa Gamble Himself into Big Money?
http://camdendepot.b...le-himself.html



#2 dude

dude

    HOF

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 5,663 posts
  • LocationColumbus, GA

Posted 04 August 2018 - 02:25 PM

No. I mean, sure, there's other ways to try and get more, but the kid is coming out of Cuba with the opportunity to put at least 4M US dollars in his pocket.

The difference of 40M in Machado's next contract is nothing. The difference of 4M for this kid is literally everything.
Or maybe the Cuban National team has been paying 7-figure salaries lately.

He's going to get to choose and the question is who does he want to choose. There could be more options, but you'd likely have to rank the front runners as some combination of the Orioles, Marlins and Yankees.

1) Marlins: They will certainly play the Miami population card. For a rebuilding team he'd actually fit nicely into 'Project Wolverine' and we've seen Lewis Brinson struggle this year. They could easily offer him 'now' opportunity as a means of getting it done although they'd likely prefer to start him off slower and maintain some control. Could certainly be in play for his brother too.

2) Yankees: They'll play the prestige card. Sort of disagree with Jon here where Mesa would likely become the favorite to man CF in a 2020. Florial may have the bigger offensive profile, but they could target Mesa for CF defense easily with Florail in LF. Yankees would clearly be his better opportunity to get to the playoffs sooner than later and would have some different but similarly interesting marketing opportunities in NY (vs Miami). His brother would be less liekly a fit for both $$ and opportunity.

3) Orioles: Left playing the money card. Any team is putting him in CF sooner than later but the Orioles will have the most money to offer him and likely more to offer his brother than Miami or NY. The question will be how much he values the incremental difference between say 4M and 5.25M. The first 4M has real value (life altering value) while the next increment has less impact. Orioles would certainly be more able to over-pay his brother too and you tie them together if you need to.

---------------

Personally, I see a lot of people making a big deal out of the kid (cool), but it seems like there's still a lot of question about his bat. If he's an elite CF defender with a great arm that has real value but what has it done for the Reds with Billy Hamilton. He's not better than him defensively.

Everyone seems to think he's an impact player, but I guess that's more excitement than reality talking, at least at this point.

---------------

Regardless, I think signing him (and his brother) is a solid move, but it would really suck for the buildup to watch him go to NY just on messaging alone.

If the Orioles get any impression that he's going to NY and they aren't going to get there on a deal, you go to the Marlins and make sure they can put the most money on the table and figure it out with them.

#3 birdwatcher55

birdwatcher55

    Veteran

  • Members
  • PipPip
  • 877 posts

Posted 05 August 2018 - 06:46 AM

So are we massively overrating Mesa?

#4 BSLChrisStoner

BSLChrisStoner

    Owner

  • Administrators
  • 101,208 posts

Posted 05 August 2018 - 07:59 AM

He is the number 1 International prospect. Great defense. Doesn't make him without flaws.

#5 bnickle

bnickle

    Banned

  • Banned
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 38,177 posts

Posted 05 August 2018 - 08:03 AM


So are we massively overrating Mesa?

I think a lot of Os fans are overrating him. Simply because hes a legit Int FA talent that we appear to want to sign.

#6 BSLRobShields

BSLRobShields

    Sr. Orioles Analyst

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 75,762 posts
  • LocationBaltimore

Posted 05 August 2018 - 08:20 AM

There are no perfect prospects.

VVM represents an opportunity to obtain a high end talent for very little money (in the grand scheme of things).

If we could go out and buy Eloy Jimenez, we would all want that. That is essentially what is happening here.
@BSLRobShields

#7 Ricker Says

Ricker Says

    HOF

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 42,521 posts
  • LocationGermantown, MD

Posted 05 August 2018 - 08:23 AM


I think a lot of Os fans are overrating him. Simply because hes a legit Int FA talent that we appear to want to sign.

And because he represents legit high end upside, which is unique to this rebuild outside of Diaz.
@0TheRick0 (AKA The Rick)
"You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the damn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all." ~ The Earl of Baltimore

#8 Mackus

Mackus

    HOF

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 37,453 posts

Posted 05 August 2018 - 08:29 AM

Just based on what little I've read, Mesa is a good prospect because of his high floor not his high ceiling. I think he's good a better than average chance of being a solid everyday CF. If he hits more than average, then he could be closer to a star.

He will be a top 3-5 prospect in our system. Maybe #1. He's not a top-20 guy in MLB, IMO. Top 100 likely.

#9 Ricker Says

Ricker Says

    HOF

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 42,521 posts
  • LocationGermantown, MD

Posted 05 August 2018 - 08:34 AM

Just based on what little I've read, Mesa is a good prospect because of his high floor not his high ceiling. I think he's good a better than average chance of being a solid everyday CF. If he hits more than average, then he could be closer to a star.

He will be a top 3-5 prospect in our system. Maybe #1. He's not a top-20 guy in MLB, IMO. Top 100 likely.

That's high end relative to what we've got. He's super important. Him and 3 or 4 more like him. Doesn't need to be a perennial AS.
@0TheRick0 (AKA The Rick)
"You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the damn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all." ~ The Earl of Baltimore

#10 dude

dude

    HOF

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 5,663 posts
  • LocationColumbus, GA

Posted 05 August 2018 - 10:35 AM

So are we massively overrating Mesa?

 

I haven't scouted the guy so I know little about it.

 

If I use the professionals out there that have scouted him....have we seen anyone project the bat yet?

 

I think it's likely he gets the #1 prospect in the IFA seen because he may have the loudest tools of a group that is typically pretty difficult to project so if we "know" he at least has Major League speed/defense in CF, then that can certainly push him to the top of the class.

 

I think people like to dream on the unknown (one of the lures of rebuilding). 

When you don't really know, you can dream things to be whatever you want them to be.

-----------------

 

Let's look at a comp.

 

Which player is more likely to produce the higher WAR over the next 4-5 years.  Micheal A Taylor or VVM?

 

Many have tied the value of the rebuild to the impact of VVM, but he isn't likely to be better than Micheal Taylor.

 

If we signed VVM, everyone would be so excited....but his impact to winning is likely less (or more or less) than Micheal Taylor.

 

You don't have to wait 5 years, 4 years, 3 years to put that talent level in CF, you can do it easily in 2019 by acquiring a player the Nationals probably don't want (Robles will be their CF next year).

 

A Taylor trade isn't nearly as sexy as a VVM signing, but it's probably at least as likely relevant to winning.



#11 birdwatcher55

birdwatcher55

    Veteran

  • Members
  • PipPip
  • 877 posts

Posted 05 August 2018 - 02:37 PM

Apparently wrote "Baltimore!" On Instagram today. Not sure what this means if anything but take it FWIW.

#12 BSLRobShields

BSLRobShields

    Sr. Orioles Analyst

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 75,762 posts
  • LocationBaltimore

Posted 05 August 2018 - 05:38 PM

I haven't scouted the guy so I know little about it.

If I use the professionals out there that have scouted him....have we seen anyone project the bat yet?

I think it's likely he gets the #1 prospect in the IFA seen because he may have the loudest tools of a group that is typically pretty difficult to project so if we "know" he at least has Major League speed/defense in CF, then that can certainly push him to the top of the class.

I think people like to dream on the unknown (one of the lures of rebuilding).
When you don't really know, you can dream things to be whatever you want them to be.
-----------------

Let's look at a comp.

Which player is more likely to produce the higher WAR over the next 4-5 years. Micheal A Taylor or VVM?

Many have tied the value of the rebuild to the impact of VVM, but he isn't likely to be better than Micheal Taylor.

If we signed VVM, everyone would be so excited....but his impact to winning is likely less (or more or less) than Micheal Taylor.

You don't have to wait 5 years, 4 years, 3 years to put that talent level in CF, you can do it easily in 2019 by acquiring a player the Nationals probably don't want (Robles will be their CF next year).

A Taylor trade isn't nearly as sexy as a VVM signing, but it's probably at least as likely relevant to winning.

Taylor turns 28 before next season.

He has had ONE good ML season. Outside of last year, his UZR and his offensive stats are relatively mediocre. Outside of 2017, he profiles as a 4th OFer. Now, he could be a late bloomer or VVM could struggle and never become anything but I bet you would be hard pressed to find any real talent evaluator who agrees with this.

There is also zero question that Mesa represents a higher upside.

Taylor is also a FA after 2 more seasons.
@BSLRobShields

#13 Crouseman

Crouseman

    All Star

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 1,129 posts

Posted 05 August 2018 - 05:45 PM

Taylor turns 28 before next season.

He has had ONE good ML season. Outside of last year, his UZR and his offensive stats are relatively mediocre. Outside of 2017, he profiles as a 4th OFer. Now, he could be a late bloomer or VVM could struggle and never become anything but I bet you would be hard pressed to find any real talent evaluator who agrees with this.

There is zero question that Mesa represents a higher upside.

Taylor is also a FA after 2 more seasons.

Mesa a no brainer over Taylor.  In a rebuild you have to go with the younger guy with a higher ceiling.



#14 birdwatcher55

birdwatcher55

    Veteran

  • Members
  • PipPip
  • 877 posts

Posted 05 August 2018 - 07:41 PM

Just based on what little I've read, Mesa is a good prospect because of his high floor not his high ceiling. I think he's good a better than average chance of being a solid everyday CF. If he hits more than average, then he could be closer to a star.
He will be a top 3-5 prospect in our system. Maybe #1. He's not a top-20 guy in MLB, IMO. Top 100 likely.

If he's not a top 20 prospect, is he worth the $5 million outlay we will potentially be making? I'm concerned we would be overpaying for slighltly above average talent.

#15 Ricker Says

Ricker Says

    HOF

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 42,521 posts
  • LocationGermantown, MD

Posted 05 August 2018 - 07:43 PM


If he's not a top 20 prospect, is he worth the $5 million outlay we will potentially be making? I'm concerned we would be overpaying for slighltly above average talent.

Slightly above average talent costs a lot of money annually, so if he doesn't need much time, $5M is nothing for that kind of production. I would also argue that most "top 20" prospects don't ever produce at a slightly above average rate.
@0TheRick0 (AKA The Rick)
"You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the damn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all." ~ The Earl of Baltimore

#16 BSLRobShields

BSLRobShields

    Sr. Orioles Analyst

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 75,762 posts
  • LocationBaltimore

Posted 05 August 2018 - 07:47 PM

If he's not a top 20 prospect, is he worth the $5 million outlay we will potentially be making? I'm concerned we would be overpaying for slighltly above average talent.


Would you pay 5M for Wander Franco? Kyle Wright? Austin Riley?

What about Dustin May?
@BSLRobShields

#17 Ricker Says

Ricker Says

    HOF

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 42,521 posts
  • LocationGermantown, MD

Posted 05 August 2018 - 07:51 PM

Is $5M the assumed cost? I wonder how much we used on the 6 players last week?
@0TheRick0 (AKA The Rick)
"You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the damn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all." ~ The Earl of Baltimore

#18 birdwatcher55

birdwatcher55

    Veteran

  • Members
  • PipPip
  • 877 posts

Posted 05 August 2018 - 07:58 PM

Would you pay 5M for Wander Franco? Kyle Wright? Austin Riley?
What about Dustin May?

Not sure. Is that their relative value? I assume they are top 20 prospects? Are you putting Mesa in their category?

#19 BSLRobShields

BSLRobShields

    Sr. Orioles Analyst

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 75,762 posts
  • LocationBaltimore

Posted 05 August 2018 - 08:01 PM


Not sure. Is that their relative value? I assume they are top 20 prospects? Are you putting Mesa in their category?


On mlb.com’s list, May, one of the guys discussed a lot in the Manny deal, is #80..the other guys I mentioned are in the 25-40 range.
@BSLRobShields

#20 Mackus

Mackus

    HOF

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 37,453 posts

Posted 05 August 2018 - 08:15 PM

I haven't scouted the guy so I know little about it.

If I use the professionals out there that have scouted him....have we seen anyone project the bat yet?

I think it's likely he gets the #1 prospect in the IFA seen because he may have the loudest tools of a group that is typically pretty difficult to project so if we "know" he at least has Major League speed/defense in CF, then that can certainly push him to the top of the class.

I think people like to dream on the unknown (one of the lures of rebuilding).
When you don't really know, you can dream things to be whatever you want them to be.
-----------------

Let's look at a comp.

Which player is more likely to produce the higher WAR over the next 4-5 years. Micheal A Taylor or VVM?

Many have tied the value of the rebuild to the impact of VVM, but he isn't likely to be better than Micheal Taylor.

If we signed VVM, everyone would be so excited....but his impact to winning is likely less (or more or less) than Micheal Taylor.

You don't have to wait 5 years, 4 years, 3 years to put that talent level in CF, you can do it easily in 2019 by acquiring a player the Nationals probably don't want (Robles will be their CF next year).

A Taylor trade isn't nearly as sexy as a VVM signing, but it's probably at least as likely relevant to winning.

Taylor is more likely to have the higher WAR over the next 4-5 years. Obviously we'd only get him for 2 if we trade for him. Unlike 6+ for Mesa. But the odds that Mesa never makes it shift the equation in Taylor's favor. Which is useful 4th OF at worst. Everyday CF at best. Even just two years of that and 3-5 WAR total is probably higher than what you'd expect from Mesa.

Mesa is more likely to be the starting CF on a playoff team in the next 6-8 years, IMO. He's got a much better chance of being one of the 3 to 5 guys that you build around. Not good odds of that, but far higher than Michael Taylor.




0 user(s) are reading this topic

0 members, 0 guests, 0 anonymous users

Partners