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#141 Mackus

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Posted 23 January 2019 - 09:05 AM

The evaporating nature of the bonus allotment dramatically changes the minimum threshold for confidence you'd need in his scouting evaluation.  Even if they think the odds of him being successful are very low, those low odds of success far exceed the risk.

 

The only potential downside to signing him would be if another guy pops up at some point in the next 5 months that you'd rather spend the money on.  That risk is heavily mitigated by the fact that we can likely be the top bidder on this guy and still have more money left over than anyone else for the next guy plus the fact that the closer we get to the next signing period, the likelier it becomes that any decent prospect who becomes eligible will just wait.



#142 Crouseman

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Posted 23 January 2019 - 09:27 AM

No excuse not to be the high bidder on this guy if he decides to sign this year rather than wait until July.  Just like there was no excuse for Gaston.  It's an expiring gift card, use it or lose it.  

 

This is the first thing to grade Elias on.  Not signing him would be as stupid as not signing any of the 3 previous guys.  Even if your scouts don't really like him, the downside is nil.  With few exceptions (if he wants to wait until next signing period being the obvious one), this is a straight up litmus test.

With the payroll being down in tank range, there is no reason not to be able to throw 2 to 2.5mil at this guy.  A SS with an elite glove who may only hit .240-.250 in the ML is still worth this stab.  The key is Elias getting the Bros to pony up the dough.  Like you said the bonus money is expiring.  Why not pick up a tangible asset with it against limited bidders.  I guess someone like the Cards could trade for more money and throw a clunker in there where the O's have a set price like 2.5mil.   And then we crap bed like the Gaston deal.



#143 Crouseman

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Posted 23 January 2019 - 09:30 AM

The evaporating nature of the bonus allotment dramatically changes the minimum threshold for confidence you'd need in his scouting evaluation.  Even if they think the odds of him being successful are very low, those low odds of success far exceed the risk.

 

The only potential downside to signing him would be if another guy pops up at some point in the next 5 months that you'd rather spend the money on.  That risk is heavily mitigated by the fact that we can likely be the top bidder on this guy and still have more money left over than anyone else for the next guy plus the fact that the closer we get to the next signing period, the likelier it becomes that any decent prospect who becomes eligible will just wait.

Yeah that will be an interesting play by the prospect on how they play this.  Will he think he can get more money when he is the only game in town right now, or will he take his chance when there are 40 or 50 other prospects available but more bidders.  I guess his agent has a number in mind say like 2.5mil and if he doesn't get it, just wait.  I got to think this guy is in the Gaston range if not a little less.



#144 Crouseman

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Posted 23 January 2019 - 09:33 AM

The evaporating nature of the bonus allotment dramatically changes the minimum threshold for confidence you'd need in his scouting evaluation.  Even if they think the odds of him being successful are very low, those low odds of success far exceed the risk.

 

The only potential downside to signing him would be if another guy pops up at some point in the next 5 months that you'd rather spend the money on.  That risk is heavily mitigated by the fact that we can likely be the top bidder on this guy and still have more money left over than anyone else for the next guy plus the fact that the closer we get to the next signing period, the likelier it becomes that any decent prospect who becomes eligible will just wait.

 

Yeah having 6mil in the pot is a lot and what are the odds another top flight prospect comes available?   The O's should be kissing the ground that a decent prospect came around right now.  Most said last fall this would never ever happen.



#145 Nigel Tufnel

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Posted 23 January 2019 - 09:38 AM

I'd never heard of the guy until yesterday, so I don't really know anything about him, but he seems kind of similar to Martin and Grenier.  Still, the more "good glove / might hit" guys that you stockpile, the better the chances that one of them will hit.



#146 Hooded Viper

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Posted 23 January 2019 - 09:43 AM

I'd never heard of the guy until yesterday, so I don't really know anything about him, but he seems kind of similar to Martin and Grenier.  Still, the more "good glove / might hit" guys that you stockpile, the better the chances that one of them will hit.

 

I am curious, and don't expect you to know, who was the last "good glove, might hit" guy who made an impact...Jeter?



#147 Mackus

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Posted 23 January 2019 - 09:53 AM

I am curious, and don't expect you to know, who was the last "good glove, might hit" guy who made an impact...Jeter?

 

Jeter was never a might hit guy.  He was the #6 overall pick and a top-10 MLB prospect before getting called up.  He was a stud.

 

If by impact, you mean major asset, there probably aren't any of these nearly freely available SS who become stars.  But there are plenty of defensive minded shortstops who are worthwhile starting caliber players, especially while they are cheap.  There are probably a dozen shortstops starting around the league who are well below league average offensively.  Not all of them make up for it with their glove, but many do.



#148 Nigel Tufnel

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Posted 23 January 2019 - 10:11 AM

Bordick's probably a guy who made the majors because of his glove and hit better than people expected.  He never hit better than .270 in the minors, and in two seasons of AAA (in the PCL) he hit .240 and .227 with no power. 

 

He was never really a star, but he was a valuable player for a while.



#149 Mackus

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Posted 23 January 2019 - 10:13 AM

Bordick's probably a guy who made the majors because of his glove and hit better than people expected.  He was never really a star, but he was a valuable player for a while.

 

There are lots of these guys.  Current FA, and guy mentioned many times in relation to the O's before we started accumulated Rule 5 SS, Jose Iglesias has never really hit but is a real good defender and would have been a perfectly acceptable option at SS for the Orioles (and still would be someone I'd look to sign, IMO).



#150 Mackus

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Posted 24 January 2019 - 01:32 PM

Asdrubal Cabrera is off the board for $3.5M.  Probably wouldn't have played him at SS since his defensive numbers have been pretty weak recently, but could have gone with 2B and moved Villar to SS, or had him compete with Nunez at 3B.

 

Iglesias and Hechevarria, both great defenders who can't really hit, remain available and shouldn't take more than a cheap 1-year deal.  I'd be content with either as the starting SS, leaving Villar at 2B and Martin as the utility guy (even though he's only had limited innings away from SS).



#151 BSLRobShields

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Posted 26 January 2019 - 04:09 PM

Roch:

#orioles Rule 5 pick Richie Martin says one reason for his improvement last summer with the A's was an eye examination that revealed he has "bad vision." Got contacts. Made a world of difference #fanfest
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#152 Nigel Tufnel

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Posted 28 January 2019 - 02:54 PM

The Orioles added another utility-type player in a waiver move Monday, claiming Jack Reinheimer from the Rangers. Reinheimer, 26, hit .167 in 21 games last year for the Mets. Austin Brice was DFA'd in a corresponding move. The O's had claimed Brice earlier this month from Reds.



#153 BSLRobShields

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Posted 28 January 2019 - 02:56 PM

The Orioles added another utility-type player in a waiver move Monday, claiming Jack Reinheimer from the Rangers. Reinheimer, 26, hit .167 in 21 games last year for the Mets. Austin Brice was DFA'd in a corresponding move. The O's had claimed Brice earlier this month from Reds.

Interesting.  I would probably rather have Brice but neither probably matters in the long run. 


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#154 dude

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Posted 28 January 2019 - 06:51 PM

The bizarre accumulation of irrelevant utility players continues.



#155 CA-ORIOLE

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Posted 28 January 2019 - 07:01 PM

The bizarre accumulation of irrelevant utility players continues.

Sounds like you and Trea have a lot in common. 



#156 dude

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Posted 28 January 2019 - 07:32 PM

Sounds like you and Trea have a lot in common. 

 

What's interesting is that you think there's a contest.  There's not.



#157 CA-ORIOLE

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Posted 28 January 2019 - 07:46 PM

What's interesting is that you think there's a contest.  There's not.

Yeah, that's quite interesting. 



#158 Mackus

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Posted 29 January 2019 - 05:24 PM

Freddy Galvis to the Blue Jays for $5M guaranteed (plus an option).

 

I' d still like to sign Iglesias.  Should only require a cheap 1-year deal.


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#159 CA-ORIOLE

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Posted 29 January 2019 - 05:40 PM

Surprised Galvis got that much actually. 



#160 Mike B

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Posted 04 February 2019 - 12:30 PM

Freddy Galvis to the Blue Jays for $5M guaranteed (plus an option).

 

I' d still like to sign Iglesias.  Should only require a cheap 1-year deal.

Iglesias fits the need.  

 

A legitimate  major league shortstop defensively.


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