Photo

Cadyn Grenier


  • Please log in to reply
65 replies to this topic

#21 McNulty

McNulty

    la cerveza está muy fría

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 8,194 posts
  • LocationBS

Posted 05 June 2018 - 09:21 AM

Here's what I know about these "guys we've never heard of:"

 

.....

 

Fixed. 


@fuzydunlop


#22 JeremyStrain

JeremyStrain

    Moderator

  • Moderators
  • 11,836 posts
  • LocationLanham, MD

Posted 05 June 2018 - 09:30 AM

Seems like the O's had profiles in mind for these picks. Defensive minded MI.

 

I won't even pretend like I've been paying attention to these guys so don't have much to say aside from I think it's interesting that their picks were SO far off from the general consensus. Not that the consensus means much, but also telling both of these guys said they are going to sign right away.

 

Talking about lining up a core yesterday, interesting that their pitcher was a HS one. I guess that tells you what they think their timeline is, but contradicts why they would take a fast -ish moving SS with their second. They are all over the place...but if you know anything about the O's that's the least surprising part.


@JeremyMStrain

#23 Mackus

Mackus

    HOF

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 44,241 posts

Posted 05 June 2018 - 09:42 AM

Talking about lining up a core yesterday, interesting that their pitcher was a HS one. I guess that tells you what they think their timeline is, but contradicts why they would take a fast -ish moving SS with their second. They are all over the place...but if you know anything about the O's that's the least surprising part.

 

I think basing any draft pick on the current needs of your MLB team or even your system in general is a great way to have an awful system.

 

Take your favorite players.  Or at least draft guys that allow you to end up with your favorite draft class (i.e. its ok to go for a lower-than-slot guy early if you have guys in mind you want to go overslot on later).  Seeking out specific positions or experience levels is the worst possible approach, IMO.

 

These are the 8th and 9th 1st round picks in Duquette/Rajisch's tenure here (including comp picks).  They've taken:

 

College pitcher

HS pitcher

HS outfielder

College outfielder

HS infielder

College pitcher

HS pitcher

HS pitcher

College infielder



#24 JeremyStrain

JeremyStrain

    Moderator

  • Moderators
  • 11,836 posts
  • LocationLanham, MD

Posted 05 June 2018 - 09:56 AM

I think basing any draft pick on the current needs of your MLB team or even your system in general is a great way to have an awful system.

 

Take your favorite players.  Or at least draft guys that allow you to end up with your favorite draft class (i.e. its ok to go for a lower-than-slot guy early if you have guys in mind you want to go overslot on later).  Seeking out specific positions or experience levels is the worst possible approach, IMO.

 

These are the 8th and 9th 1st round picks in Duquette/Rajisch's tenure here (including comp picks).  They've taken:

 

College pitcher

HS pitcher

HS outfielder

College outfielder

HS infielder

College pitcher

HS pitcher

HS pitcher

College infielder

 

In general I completely agree. It's more about figuring out the overall direction for the org right now. Are they planning on resigning players and trying to complete like they did for 20 years treading water? Are they going to tear it down and rebuild completely? It kinda helps frame things if you realize they will have like 3 assets that come up, and waste control before they can compete again and tell you who should be tradeable and who they should keep.

 

Not that it should make up your mind who you take...but maybe it's a good plan to look at HS guys extra hard (because there are always a bunch of guys grouped close together, it's not like football where there's a lot more separation each year) if you think your plan is 5-6 years down the road vs 2-3. It'd be one thing if player a was clearly the best player and then a steep drop off before b, c and d but it's not usually like that, especially in the teens.


@JeremyMStrain

#25 SportsGuy

SportsGuy

    HOF

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 91,979 posts
  • LocationBaltimore

Posted 05 June 2018 - 11:41 AM

We may end up with JP Crawford anyway.

 

But Caydn could go to second (or Crawford to third) if he develops.  

 

I love the idea of good defense up the middle...but not with a sub 620 OPS.  Kid has to be able to hit.



#26 tennOsfan

tennOsfan

    All Star

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 1,338 posts
  • LocationJonesborough, TN

Posted 05 June 2018 - 12:54 PM

Fixed.


Being a dick much?

#27 McNulty

McNulty

    la cerveza está muy fría

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 8,194 posts
  • LocationBS

Posted 05 June 2018 - 12:58 PM

Being a dick much?

 

I'm not wrong, I'm just an asshole.


  • BSLJordanKough likes this

@fuzydunlop


#28 Mackus

Mackus

    HOF

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 44,241 posts

Posted 05 June 2018 - 01:17 PM

Has anyone ever done a study to see how much better/worse the BA or MLB.com or whomever else's pubic rankings top 10 / 20 / 50 / 100 / 300 etc fare in their careers than how the actual same top number picks do?

 

It's hard to put a lump number on how good a pick was, so it's a difficult question even if doing all the gathering of information wasn't such a chore.  I think WAR (bbRef and FG) would be a good metric.  Another metric I like is simple opportunity, just track the number of MLB PAs for hitters and number of batters faced for pitchers. 

 

I put almost no stock into hearing that some guy was rated #35 by BA but went 15th or the same #35th rated guy falling to #60.  Neither seems meaningful to me.  But maybe BA is much more adept at ranking their guys than I'm giving them credit for.



#29 BSLChrisStoner

BSLChrisStoner

    Owner

  • Administrators
  • 121,940 posts

Posted 05 June 2018 - 01:19 PM

Has anyone ever done a study to see how much better/worse the BA or MLB.com or whomever else's pubic rankings top 10 / 20 / 50 / 100 / 300 etc fare in their careers than how the actual same top number picks do?

 

It's hard to put a lump number on how good a pick was, so it's a difficult question even if doing all the gathering of information wasn't such a chore.  I think WAR (bbRef and FG) would be a good metric.  Another metric I like is simple opportunity, just track the number of MLB PAs for hitters and number of batters faced for pitchers. 

 

I put almost no stock into hearing that some guy was rated #35 by BA but went 15th or the same #35th rated guy falling to #60.  Neither seems meaningful to me.  But maybe BA is much more adept at ranking their guys than I'm giving them credit for.

 

Not 1x1 of what you are looking for... but something...

 

http://www.sportsone...aseball-america


  • Mackus likes this

#30 Mackus

Mackus

    HOF

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 44,241 posts

Posted 05 June 2018 - 01:25 PM

Not 1x1 of what you are looking for... but something...

 

http://www.sportsone...aseball-america

 

Cool.  This is the sort of analysis I'm talking about doing, except I'd need to do it twice more with different sets of players (not the BA top-100 minor league prospects lists) and compare the results. 

 

Compare how BA's top-100 draft-eligible players fare X years down the road and against how the actual top-100 picks fare.



#31 BSLJordanKough

BSLJordanKough

    Ravens Analyst

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 8,425 posts

Posted 05 June 2018 - 01:31 PM

Cool.  This is the sort of analysis I'm talking about doing, except I'd need to do it twice more with different sets of players (not the BA top-100 minor league prospects lists) and compare the results. 

 

Compare how BA's top-100 draft-eligible players fare X years down the road and against how the actual top-100 picks fare.

 

This is interesting. How much of the top 100 is dictated by what BA hears teams are going to do though. And maybe it's not that BA has gotten better over this time but it's that teams have gotten better at ID'ing prospects too. And BA is just following their lead. So you get all kinds of weird confirmation bias. 

 

Even the article that Chris linked mentioned how open and forthcoming teams were with information sharing with BA. And ultimately what BA tracks would be simply in line with what the teams were looking at. 

 

My gut says the top 100 is probably the top 100 and that you won't see all that much variance. You don't see guys rated #10 being taken outside of the top 100. But perhaps in the top 50? 



#32 SportsGuy

SportsGuy

    HOF

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 91,979 posts
  • LocationBaltimore

Posted 05 June 2018 - 01:38 PM

I don't really care as much about the ratings as I do the scouting reports.

 

People who have seen him play a lot are questioning his bat.  His profiles sounds like one of a guy that can stick in the league as a defensive player but maybe not much more than that.

 

Now, the one guy from perfect game likes his bat.  Maybe he can be a capable hitter and combine that with very good defense and you have a very good player at a premium position.

 

But based off of his scouting report and ones of guys drafted after him, it sure the hell seems as though higher ceiling talent was there for the Os and they passed on that.

 

I think everyone should have an issue with that.



#33 dude

dude

    HOF

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 7,735 posts
  • LocationColumbus, GA

Posted 09 June 2018 - 02:57 PM

Seems like the O's had profiles in mind for these picks. Defensive minded MI.

 

....

 

Talking about lining up a core yesterday, interesting that their pitcher was a HS one. I guess that tells you what they think their timeline is, but contradicts why they would take a fast -ish moving SS with their second. They are all over the place...but if you know anything about the O's that's the least surprising part.

 

For me, the Grenier pick seems to be the most intentional in terms of telling us something about their thinking.

 

Every other pick in the draft seems to fall into what we'd normally expect in terms of adding picks through the draft....but I think it's easy to hear Brady in the planning some random room talking about the need for a premier defensive SS for this team sooner than later. 

 

So Grenier is a guy that pushed the #4 pick off SS so there's something there to his projected defense which should certainly be lower risk than the bat.  When you target Caydn to be that guy (best defensive SS in the class) and with the Orioles giving up their 2nd rd, they might figure he doesn't last to their 3rd rd pick so they "have to" pop him at #37.

 

If you have to have Caydn Grenier as your near term SS, then he is your plan for SS and you aren't doing anything else.

 

If he's John McDonald...is that good enough?

 

Beckham is an easy enough bridge and you can see Cadyn sooner than later.  He  likely doesn't have a big enough profile to worry about FA (he'll never out-price himself) so you can bring him up whenever you want.

 

I sort of expect to see him on the ML roster about a year from now.



#34 Mackus

Mackus

    HOF

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 44,241 posts

Posted 09 June 2018 - 07:16 PM

Utterly insane to be pencilig any draft pick into your future plans at any position, yet alone someone who went #37. Better chance he never plays for the Orioles than him being at SS in short enough time to be a factor in whatever the "plan" may be. Shouldn't be relying on AA prospects, yet alone some college kid.

#35 BSLChrisStoner

BSLChrisStoner

    Owner

  • Administrators
  • 121,940 posts

Posted 09 June 2018 - 08:02 PM

I believe the numbers are something like 2/3rds of 1st round picks reach the Majors, and 1/2 of 2nd round picks. So Grenier's chances of reaching the Majors are probably something like 58%?   

Of course reaching the Majors, and being productive are far different.... so if his chances are 58% to make, his chances of being productive (and I guess that would have to be defined further) is probably 1%?

 

 

That all said.... I kind of agree with dude in that I expect him to be moved fairly quickly by the O's... unless his bat just doesn't play at all as professional.



#36 SBTarheel

SBTarheel

    BSL Analyst

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 14,431 posts
  • LocationEldersburg, Md

Posted 09 June 2018 - 08:37 PM

Watching Oregon State/Minnesota. Grenier 1-1 so far, solid single up the middle. 


@beginthebegin71

#37 SBTarheel

SBTarheel

    BSL Analyst

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 14,431 posts
  • LocationEldersburg, Md

Posted 20 June 2018 - 07:56 PM

He's killing the Tar Heels tonight...

 

Homer in the 1st, just got another hit, and has been good in the field. 


  • BSLChrisStoner likes this
@beginthebegin71

#38 BSLMikeRandall

BSLMikeRandall

    Sr. Ravens Analyst

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 21,397 posts

Posted 22 June 2018 - 03:59 PM

0-1 with 2 BBs so far today. Game on ESPN. Vs Miss. St.
@BSLMikeRandall

#39 Mike B

Mike B

    HOF

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 20,130 posts
  • LocationTowson Md.

Posted 22 June 2018 - 08:13 PM

0-1 with 2 BBs so far today. Game on ESPN. Vs Miss. St.

He better stop taking those walks if he wants to play on the Orioles.


  • Ricker Says and BSLMikeRandall like this
@mikeghg

#40 BSLMikeRandall

BSLMikeRandall

    Sr. Ravens Analyst

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 21,397 posts

Posted 22 June 2018 - 08:56 PM

He better stop taking those walks if he wants to play on the Orioles.

Later on he struck out swinging on a pitch in the dirt a foot outside. He'll fit in nicely with that. 


@BSLMikeRandall




0 user(s) are reading this topic

0 members, 0 guests, 0 anonymous users