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BSL: Opportunity to draft a QB isn't always there...


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#1 BSLMikeRandall

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Posted 10 February 2018 - 02:49 PM

BSL: http://baltimorespor...qb-isnt-always/

 

....so if it's there, take it.

 

A look at whether or not a top QB will be there at #16 when the Ravens are on the clock. How where Kirk Cousins signs will influence that. How DeCosta could push for a guy this year that he can start to build around when he takes over as GM in 2019, if Flacco continues his downward trend. 

 

Most importantly, opportunity might not be there for a top flight QB in 2018. That means it might not be there in 2019, 2020 either. It might be a dire need by then. So if the opportunity is there, take it. Don't pass and hope the stars align just right in another year. 

 


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#2 BSLSeanJester

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Posted 10 February 2018 - 03:17 PM

I'm torn. I'd rather they take someone who helps the team immediately. I think we can still win with Joe over the next two years. But if you really like someone, take them.
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#3 BSLMikeRandall

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Posted 11 February 2018 - 11:21 AM

I'm torn. I'd rather they take someone who helps the team immediately. I think we can still win with Joe over the next two years. But if you really like someone, take them.

I think they can win with Joe too. Seems like every little thing around him has to be perfect though. He's not going to do it on his own like the greats do. Wish January Joe would show up in September and October too though. 

 

They have to ask themselves one question. If they hit a home run with their first round pick in the draft by not going QB, does it elevate the team to a Super Bowl contender? If not, if you think this a couple year project, then a QB needs to be part of that plan and if one you like is sitting there at 16, go for it. 

 

If they take a playmaker they think can elevate the offense with Joe, Im ok with that. If they take a defensive tackle, I'll predict another 6 win season and probably spend all year scouting for 2019.


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#4 bnickle

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Posted 11 February 2018 - 11:35 AM

If a 1st round graded QB is available at 16 we should seriously consider drafting him. Harbaugh doesnt like to keep 3 QBs on the roster but Oz likes having a competent backup QB. So keep an eye out for a legit backup signing pre draft. If that doesnt happen I think it might show an intention to draft a QB in the first 3 or 4 rounds.
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#5 jkough1

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Posted 11 February 2018 - 12:26 PM

I think they can win with Joe too. Seems like every little thing around him has to be perfect though. 

 

Perfect? How about 3 healthy WRs (even of Chris Moore level talent, not Perriman), one TE who isn't 37, OL that has it's full talent level. Or a Collins type back all year long. Joe was a long long way from perfect personnel last year. And a few upgrades at TE or WR would have gone a really long way IMO. Also, his health too. 

 

Everyone chatters about how Brady wins his teams games. Well in one drive he threw to Gronk 5 times for 4 completions for like 60+ yards. The misconception around the elite QBs doing it with rag tag talent drives me crazy...

 

I generally agree with your point, Flacco needs his offense around him to be certainly better than average, but the expectations IMO have to be a bit more fair. 



#6 BSLRobShields

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Posted 11 February 2018 - 12:56 PM

I would like Mason Rudolph. At this point, he will be there at 16 but most feel like that would be an overdraft.

Some feel he will go at the back of the first or at least the first half of the second.

I would be very surprised, after SB’s comments, if we go QB within the first 3-4 rounds of the draft.

I wonder if Falk is dropping?
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#7 BSLGabeFerguson

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Posted 11 February 2018 - 01:10 PM

If a 1st round graded QB is available at 16 we should seriously consider drafting him. Harbaugh doesnt like to keep 3 QBs on the roster but Oz likes having a competent backup QB. So keep an eye out for a legit backup signing pre draft. If that doesnt happen I think it might show an intention to draft a QB in the first 3 or 4 rounds.

100% agree with this. Maybe the Ravens can win with Flacco at the helm, but they have to build a near perfect roster around him and a lot is going to have to go right for that to happen. It could happen dont get me wrong, but it's a big challenge with his contract and the number of deficiencies currently with the team.

 

Getting a top QB in the draft is a step towards building the future and if the opportunity arises, it would be a shame to pass on it.


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#8 bnickle

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Posted 11 February 2018 - 01:18 PM

100% agree with this. Maybe the Ravens can win with Flacco at the helm, but they have to build a near perfect roster around him and a lot is going to have to go right for that to happen. It could happen dont get me wrong, but it's a big challenge with his contract and the number of deficiencies currently with the team.

Getting a top QB in the draft is a step towards building the future and if the opportunity arises, it would be a shame to pass on it.

I dont think seriously considering a 1st round graded QB at 16 is even a debate. The debate probably lies in would you do what it takes to move up to say 9 or 10 to draft one of those guys. I think thats where the Ravens really need to do their homework on a few of these guys and on Joe. Is the time is right to move on our next franchise signal caller and the cost it'll take to get him?

#9 BSLMikeRandall

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Posted 11 February 2018 - 02:20 PM

Perfect? How about 3 healthy WRs (even of Chris Moore level talent, not Perriman), one TE who isn't 37, OL that has it's full talent level. Or a Collins type back all year long. Joe was a long long way from perfect personnel last year. And a few upgrades at TE or WR would have gone a really long way IMO. Also, his health too. 

 

Everyone chatters about how Brady wins his teams games. Well in one drive he threw to Gronk 5 times for 4 completions for like 60+ yards. The misconception around the elite QBs doing it with rag tag talent drives me crazy...

 

I generally agree with your point, Flacco needs his offense around him to be certainly better than average, but the expectations IMO have to be a bit more fair. 

Gronk started 6 games in 2016 and missed all the important games. Brady still phenomenal, another title. Rodgers without Nelson. Some guys can carry a team. But others, we saw Ryan without Julio Jones, that was bad. We just saw impressive rookie Dak Prescott struggle in season two when you take away key pieces of the O-line and the threat of Zeke Elliott. That's kind of the boat Joe is in to me. One piece of the O-line goes down, and all of sudden he can't do anything. 

 

In the SB season he had Ray Rice as dynamic a player as there is in the NFL. Anquan Boldin and Dennis Pitta whom without the injuries could be one of the best pass catching TEs in the league. Torrey Smith who was perfect scheme fit. The only hole in the O-line was Oher, whom wasn't even terrible compared to when the stick James Hurst out at tackle the last few years. Birk and Yanda will be in the HOF conversation, Osemele was a home run pick and became the highest paid guard. Bryant McKinnie when he put the fork down and got out of the dog house was a strong veteran. 

 

Even still, it took a miracle to Jacoby Jones or else we're talking about Joe being incapable of winning it all. 

 

It's evident to me that Joe gets zero help from his coaches right now. Maybe that's why he likes MM so much. The 2014 squad was a lesser team than 2012, but Joe had his best statistical season. Probably because Kubiak knew how to get the most out of Owen Daniels, how to use Justin Forsett, riding him to a career season, that stuff helps Joe out. Of course Steve Smith still with gas in the tank replacing Boldin helps too.

 

While Joe Flacco can't make Breshad Perriman catch the ball when it hits him right in his damn hands, he should be able to be a little bit better than what we have gotten from him in recent years. It can't always be everyone elses fault. 


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#10 BSLMikeRandall

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Posted 11 February 2018 - 02:25 PM

I dont think seriously considering a 1st round graded QB at 16 is even a debate. The debate probably lies in would you do what it takes to move up to say 9 or 10 to draft one of those guys. I think thats where the Ravens really need to do their homework on a few of these guys and on Joe. Is the time is right to move on our next franchise signal caller and the cost it'll take to get him?

I don't think that time is this year. But it is next year for sure if this year is a repeat of whats happened since Kubiak left. The consensus top 4 are Darnold, Rosen, Mayfield, Allen. If one is there at 16, take em (still have to scout them though). If not, maybe you take a next tier QB in round 2 while still addressing a need (WR) in round 1. 

 

You don't need to give up the farm to get a QB while Flacco probably has 2 years left. But with 1 year left coming off 4 crappy ones, in the 2019 draft you would make those moves to get the guy you want, just like they did to get Flacco in 08'.


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#11 jkough1

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Posted 11 February 2018 - 05:22 PM

he should be able to be a little bit better than what we have gotten from him in recent years. It can't always be everyone elses fault. 

 

You said, "seems like every little around Joe has to be perfect for him to be good." I agree with the sentiment above that he could have done more for us. But also that the FO could have done A LOT more for him. 


I will point out that when your big example is Jacoby Jones who never had more than 600 yards receiving in one season as the example of things being "perfect" why is it Jones did the perfect thing, but Joe didn't escalate him? Maybe it was Joe that escalated Jones in that post-season. 

 

I'm not saying get off Joe's back, he needs to be better. But he doesn't need things to be perfect, but to act like the FO hasn't done his a disservice in coaches and talent since the SB is, IMO, off base. 

 

And yes, if we had the equivalent to the 2012 line, RB and WR/TE corps, I think we'd have seen a lot better than Joe since then. The one time we had a good coach, he took us to the AFC Championship game and had 2 14 point leads over the very same Tom Brady. 



#12 BSLSeanJester

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Posted 11 February 2018 - 07:09 PM

I'm fine taking a QB in the 2nd or 3rd round and hoping they become the guy and rolling with Joe. Use the 1st rounder to improve the 2018 team. If something falls into their lap then go for it but I just don't think the need is necessarily there yet.

#13 Mackus

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Posted 11 February 2018 - 07:17 PM

I would take a QB in the first if he's got a top 15 grade. Wouldn't give up our 2019 1st to move into top 5 for anybody. Might consider moving 2nd to move up to around 10 if a guy we've graded as the best QB in the class is still available there, my guess is anyone we like that much would be long gone by that point though. Doubtful I'd end up actually selecting a QB given how much their value gets inflated on draft night, but it's very near the top of my wish list.

#14 BSLMikeRandall

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Posted 11 February 2018 - 09:02 PM

You said, "seems like every little around Joe has to be perfect for him to be good." I agree with the sentiment above that he could have done more for us. But also that the FO could have done A LOT more for him. 


I will point out that when your big example is Jacoby Jones who never had more than 600 yards receiving in one season as the example of things being "perfect" why is it Jones did the perfect thing, but Joe didn't escalate him? Maybe it was Joe that escalated Jones in that post-season. 

 

I'm not saying get off Joe's back, he needs to be better. But he doesn't need things to be perfect, but to act like the FO hasn't done his a disservice in coaches and talent since the SB is, IMO, off base. 

 

And yes, if we had the equivalent to the 2012 line, RB and WR/TE corps, I think we'd have seen a lot better than Joe since then. The one time we had a good coach, he took us to the AFC Championship game and had 2 14 point leads over the very same Tom Brady. 

Trust me. The FO shoulders a lot of the blame for this. And I'm pretty harsh on Harbaugh and Moronweg too. They could have done a lot better to help Joe out. 

 

Not sure at this point about the finer details of the Texans offense when Jacoby was there before we got him. But his style was a perfect fit for the scheme the Ravens ran at the time. Torrey Smith too. Right now it looks like trying to fit square pegs in round holes with the guys they have. The coaches don't adjust to their players which is exactly what the two teams in the Super Bowl did. 

 

Yeah. Joe escalated Jones. The big plays he put those passes where he could catch them.

 

I think we agree. Just in different terms. Coaches don't help Joe. Joe kind of just follows orders though and doesn't take over if something doesn't look right.


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#15 BSLMikeRandall

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Posted 12 February 2018 - 03:58 PM

I was just thinking if the Ravens could approach this the way the Chiefs did (draft Mahomes, trade Alex Smith after the year, hand it to Mahomes in his year two). I don't think they can. At least not this year. 

 

If you take a QB this year, the only way he's starting in 2019 is Joe is released/hurt. You can't trade him if he's that bad, because a team maybe won't want to take on the $18.5M price tag. In 2020 a $20.25M price tag.

 

If the Ravens are going to do the Chiefs thing they would draft a QB in 2020, trade Flacco in 2021 with no cap penalty and him playing well enough for a team to pick up the $24.25M price tag. 

 

But as long as he's playing where he is now, have to wonder if anyone is taking the salary off the Ravens hands, and the Ravens won't want to accept the dead money hit either. If he's playing we'll enough in 2020, he'll have an extension here through 2021. 


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#16 Mackus

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Posted 12 February 2018 - 05:27 PM

It's a longshot, but I think the Ravens could follow the Chiefs model.  Joe doesn't currently have as much value as Smith does, but I think with a good year they would be held in similar regard.

 

Smith is due $17M in '18 and the Redskins paid a steep price for him entering his age 34 season, and they doubled down on that by giving him a huge extension.  Heading into 2019, Joe will be the same age, entering his age 34 season.  He'll be due $18.5M, so very similar to Smith.  But Joe's major difference is he has two more years beyond that of team control with zero guaranteed money owed.  $20.25M in 2020 is probably better than redoing his deal.  $24.25M in 2021 is a bit more, but still probably better than redoing his contract immediately upon trading for him. 

 

I guess it would depend on the exact cap scenario for the acquiring team.  But if you don't have any prorated bonuses to account for, and Joe is coming off of a solid season, I could definitely see some team giving up some decent (though not overwhelming) value for him and the rest of his contract.  2/$40M or 3/$65M for Joe could very well end up looking like a team-friendly deal depending on how he plays.  We wouldn't trade him in that scenario unless we have a QB already in house that we want to hand things over to.


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#17 Mackus

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Posted 02 March 2018 - 06:40 PM

If the Broncos sign Kirk Cousins, would trading a later pick (4th or 5th?) for Paxton Lynch interest anybody (or the Broncos)?  He'd be due $1.3M guaranteed in 2018 and then $1.7 ($600k guaranteed) in 2019.  We'd have to decide on his 2020 option after this season, which would be for somewhere in the $16M range I think (average of 3rd through 25th highest QB salaries), which is guaranteed for injury only.

 

I don't think I've ever seen him play.  But he's a big guy with a big arm, traits we know the Ravens like. He'd be cheaper as a backup than Mallett has been, and is still young enough where maybe he can become more than that.  Obviously he hasn't worked out for Denver or they wouldn't be thinking about signing Cousins.  But if there isn't a young QB we like in the middle rounds, maybe this is a way to bring someone into the fold.



#18 BSLSeanJester

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Posted 02 March 2018 - 06:42 PM

Early verdict on Lynch is he can't stay healthy being a backup QB. Pass.

#19 bnickle

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Posted 03 March 2018 - 10:03 PM

If the Broncos sign Kirk Cousins, would trading a later pick (4th or 5th?) for Paxton Lynch interest anybody (or the Broncos)? He'd be due $1.3M guaranteed in 2018 and then $1.7 ($600k guaranteed) in 2019. We'd have to decide on his 2020 option after this season, which would be for somewhere in the $16M range I think (average of 3rd through 25th highest QB salaries), which is guaranteed for injury only.

I don't think I've ever seen him play. But he's a big guy with a big arm, traits we know the Ravens like. He'd be cheaper as a backup than Mallett has been, and is still young enough where maybe he can become more than that. Obviously he hasn't worked out for Denver or they wouldn't be thinking about signing Cousins. But if there isn't a young QB we like in the middle rounds, maybe this is a way to bring someone into the fold.

Defintely not a 4th. Would have to look into him more to determine if a 5th or 6th would be worth it

#20 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 10 March 2018 - 11:17 AM

Balt Ravens.com: Eisenberg: Ravens Are Unlikely to Draft a First-Round Quarterback, But the Idea Has Merit






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