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NCAAF Playoff Expansion...


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#1 BSLMikeRandall

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Posted 26 November 2017 - 02:03 AM

....seems inevitable. 

 

It happens in every sport eventually. Why would NCAAF be any different.

 

You're about to have a mess of a final four where potentially a 12-0 Big Ten team is left out. Where potentially for the 2nd year in a row an "at-large" type who doesn't play for their conference title might get in. Where an independent (join a friggin conference, jackasses) Notre Dame threw a wrench in the works during the season.

 

The next logical expansion would be to 8 teams. You could have the power 5 conference champs get auto-bids. Then 3 "at-large" and the committee picks the seeding.

 

It would look like...

 

Stanford/USC - Loser is out

Oklahoma/TCU - TCU is out with loss, Oklahoma in no matter what

Georgia/Auburn - Georgia is out with loss. Auburn in no matter what. 1 loss Bama jumps UGA but not Auburn for at-large

Miami/Clemson - both in no matter what.

Ohio State/Wisconsin - both in no matter what....I understand a debate could be had between Georgia and Ohio State...

 

If the best teams win their conference...

 

USC

Oklahoma

Auburn

Clemson

Wisconsin

 

With At-larges going to...

 

Alabama

Miami

Ohio State

 

And your 8 team playoff looking like...

 

1 Oklahoma vs. 8 USC (Orange Bowl)

2 Auburn vs. 7 Miami (Fiesta Bowl)

3 Clemson vs. 6 Ohio State (Sugar Bowl)

4 Alabama vs. 5 Wisconsin (Rose Bowl)

 


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#2 BSLMikeLowe

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Posted 26 November 2017 - 02:49 AM

No automatic bids. If you are a Power 5 conference and you can't place a team among the eight best, you didn't earn it.



#3 BSLRobShields

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Posted 26 November 2017 - 07:13 AM

Yep..no interest in auto bids.

Imo, the biggest reason you expand is so that a non power 5 can get invited to the dance.
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#4 Ricker Says

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Posted 26 November 2017 - 07:30 AM

I'm with Rob. You can't leave a UCF out in an 8 team field. I'm generally against expansion, and wouldn't want to go to 8 when it does happen (it will happen).


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#5 BSLBobPhelan

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Posted 26 November 2017 - 08:30 AM

Eight is the right number. Make it happen.



#6 BSLMikeRandall

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Posted 26 November 2017 - 08:39 AM

No one cares that there are auto bids in basketball. Where at least 10-15 teams arent even close to the top 68 in the country.

You can easily leave UCF out of the top 8. Even if you want to take out the Pac 12 auto bid in my scenario, because the other 4 conferences will have deserving champs, replace the Pac 12 with a deserving Penn State or Gerogia. UCF is probably 10, 11ish. Still has to beat Memohis anyway.
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#7 BSLSteveBirrer

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Posted 26 November 2017 - 09:03 AM

1. Got to expand to at least 8. But 16 is the right answer.

2. Since there is very little cross conference play its very difficult to say that conference X is better than conference Y. How do you possible out in an Alabama who isn't even going to play for their conference title in over an undefeated Wisconsin?

3. SOS is really a tough sell for me. Certainly you can look at a teams schedule and say they knew upfront that they scheduled creampuffs. But the schedules for OOC games are done so far in advance that what looks to be a good OOC game today might be a joke 5 years down the road. Good example would be UCF. If they were on your schedule this year that would be a tough matchup. But schedule them now for the 2021 season and maybe a different story.

4. You can only beat the teams on your schedule and at least 3/4 of that schedule you have zero control over. And in fact its probably higher than that. P5 don't like to schedule the historically stronger teams from the G5. Too much risk of a loss yet the perception is that they don't get much credit for a win either. So hard to blame them.

 

So 16. Every conference champion gets in with 5 at large bids. First round is bottom ranked 8 at the higher ranked 8. 16 is at 1, 15 at 2, and so on. Second round is remaining 4 lowest seeds at the remaining 4 highest seeds. Then the final four can be done just like now to make use of the big bowl venues. Everybody wins. More total revenue (and I think by a bunch). And for the P5 whiners who claim they shouldn't have to play some piss ant G5 team get over it. If you can't beat them at your house then tough shit.



#8 Ricker Says

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Posted 26 November 2017 - 09:31 AM

Definitely a huge no to 16, that would kill the regular season.
@0TheRick0 (AKA The Rick)
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#9 BSLRobShields

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Posted 26 November 2017 - 09:42 AM

16 would be terrible.

I think it should be 6.
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#10 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 26 November 2017 - 09:49 AM

16 would not be awful. The Playoff would be awesome. The week-to-week regular season banter would be reduced.

I look forward to the inevitable jump to 8.
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#11 BSLRobShields

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Posted 26 November 2017 - 10:39 AM

16 would not be awful. The Playoff would be awesome. The week-to-week regular season banter would be reduced.

I look forward to the inevitable jump to 8.


It’s terrible in that it completely renders the regular season useless.
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#12 mweb08

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Posted 26 November 2017 - 10:50 AM

Arguably the best thing college football has going for it is how important every game is for the best teams. Expanding at all diminishes that, and going up to 16 really hurts that, at least for the top teams. Then a lot of focus will be on the teams ranked 10-25th, which brings more teams into the picture, but they'd be teams that generally don't have a chance of winning 4 playoff games. There's not enough parity in college football compared to the NFL, for that to work imo.

Speaking of 4 playoff games, the last thing an amateur football league should be doing now that we know what we do about CTE, is adding more games.

Lastly, this stuff mostly works itself out anyway. You can basically look at the last few weeks as playoffs. Alabama and Miami just lost what may have been playoff type games for them, but each could still get in depending on other "playoff" games.

I've argued for 6 in the past, but I'm less in favor of it now since I'd prefer not to have the potential 3rd playoff game for anyone. 4 or 6 works best for keeping the advantage that college football has and creating an exciting and fair playoffs.

#13 BSLRobShields

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Posted 26 November 2017 - 10:57 AM

I would go to 6 and the top 2 teams get a bye...just like the nfl.
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#14 BSLSteveBirrer

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Posted 26 November 2017 - 11:14 AM

Typical responses for the anti expansion crowd. "It diminishes the regular season". Yet I have never seen a single argument that holds water that is a true statement.

 

1. Every game still matters. Still need to win your conference to be in for sure.

2. Every game matters. Still want a home seed and the for sure sell out crowd (and money) you will get.

3. It brings way more fans into the picture. Fans that right now have zero skin in the game since they know they is no chance in hell their team is every sniffing the playoffs.

 

So ok please give me a factual basis for why a 16 team playoffs kills the regular season. Oh and don't give me the you can't lose a game argument. Three of the top four in the ESPN rankings as of today have a loss and Auburn has two!


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#15 Ricker Says

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Posted 26 November 2017 - 11:28 AM


I would go to 6 and the top 2 teams get a bye...just like the nfl.

This is what I've thought all along. I'd rather keep it at 4 than go to 8.
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#16 Ricker Says

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Posted 26 November 2017 - 11:31 AM

Typical responses for the anti expansion crowd. "It diminishes the regular season". Yet I have never seen a single argument that holds water that is a true statement.

1. Every game still matters. Still need to win your conference to be in for sure.
2. Every game matters. Still want a home seed and the for sure sell out crowd (and money) you will get.
3. It brings way more fans into the picture. Fans that right now have zero skin in the game since they know they is no chance in hell their team is every sniffing the playoffs.

So ok please give me a factual basis for why a 16 team playoffs kills the regular season. Oh and don't give me the you can't lose a game argument. Three of the top four in the ESPN rankings as of today have a loss and Auburn has two!

Point 3 is a big one. I do wonder if more widespread attention to more teams may outweigh the negative? Still, nothing like the Iron Bowl, for instance, being a pseudo play in game. That Oklahoma win in Columbus isn't that big of a deal in a 16 team playoff. Etc. Personal preference. I acknowledge I'd probably feel differently if I were a fan of a non major 5 school.
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"You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the damn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all." ~ The Earl of Baltimore

#17 mweb08

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Posted 26 November 2017 - 12:18 PM

Typical responses for the anti expansion crowd. "It diminishes the regular season". Yet I have never seen a single argument that holds water that is a true statement.

 

1. Every game still matters. Still need to win your conference to be in for sure.

2. Every game matters. Still want a home seed and the for sure sell out crowd (and money) you will get.

3. It brings way more fans into the picture. Fans that right now have zero skin in the game since they know they is no chance in hell their team is every sniffing the playoffs.

 

So ok please give me a factual basis for why a 16 team playoffs kills the regular season. Oh and don't give me the you can't lose a game argument. Three of the top four in the ESPN rankings as of today have a loss and Auburn has two!

 

I'm not sure how typical one of my points is, which is that we shouldn't have more games that bring in more revenue that the players don't see a cut of while they are damaging their brains. But onto your points....

 

As for every game still mattering, well they wouldn't nearly as much as they do now. That Bama-Auburn game would not have meant nearly as much if there were a 16 team playoff. Depending on how the teams are chosen, both teams would have likely been safe in a 16 team playoff, now that game was do or die for Auburn and may turn out that way for Alabama as well. The big games that people are looking forward to next weekend wouldn't mean as much either as the loser of many of those games would still be able to compete in the playoffs. Right now, whether or not a game truly does break a contenders season, a loss can genuinely feel that way in the moment. But then all these other games start to matter for those 1-2 loss teams that still have some hope.

 

Now for bringing more fans into the picture, you have a point and I'll argue against myself for a bit here. As much as people want to rave about college football, the vast majority of teams have no chance at the playoffs, the vast majority of games are meaningless to the playoff picture other than to make contenders schedules look better or worse, and even the majority of games featuring the playoff contenders are trash. So yeah, if you expand to 16, you bring more fanbases into the picture, which is a positive. 

 

However, I go back to what I said in my prior post, which is that I don't think the teams after 8 or so would really have any chance of winning the championship anyway. It can still be fun for those teams and their fanbases though, but I guess the bowls are too. Ultimately for me, that point, while having merit, doesn't outweigh the diminished luster of the really big games / each week mattering to the point of playoff chances for these contenders, and the point I led this post with (I know not everyone cares about that ethical argument though). 



#18 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 26 November 2017 - 12:23 PM

They do 16 at the FCS level...it works. Regular season wouldn't be meaningless..seeding would matter.

Would be less weekly discussion...would be more discussion at playoff time.
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#19 Ricker Says

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Posted 26 November 2017 - 12:27 PM

Maybe over time, with more teams gaining national prominence and fame, FBS would be able to produce 16 teams capable of winning it all. Keeping the playoffs at 4 and valuing the uber importance of the regular season as much as we do, does cost the FBS more parity.
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#20 BSLMikeRandall

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Posted 26 November 2017 - 12:29 PM

It’s terrible in that it completely renders the regular season useless.

But you could also argue that for most teams that loses 2 games, the rest of the regular season becomes useless. If you're a fan of say Northwestern, the last 2 months have meant absolutely nothing....despite wining seven straight to end the season after starting 2-3. 9-3 Northwestern, no one cares. 

 

Teams are always playing for something. If you need to win your conference to get an auto bid to a playoff, the regular season isn't useless because you need those games to earn a conference title game berth. 

 

Teams are also trying to win to get better bowl games, more exposure, look good for recruits. (Except for Maryland given their look)

 

From a fan perspective the Pac-12 title game is useless right now. But if a bid to get into an 8-team playoff was on the line, it would be a must see game. 


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