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BSL: Explosion Numbers: DEs and LBs in the NFL Draft


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#1 BSLMikeRandall

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Posted 24 April 2017 - 07:19 AM

BSL: http://baltimorespor...2017-nfl-draft/

 

Using Pat Kirwan's explosion number stat, plus two other combine drills, I look at who the most explosive players in the draft are at the pass rush positions. Last year the draft most explosive player was Matt Judon, whom the Ravens chose in round 5. Others with high explosion marks are making waves in the NFL. Who is up there this year and what does it mean for the Ravens?


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#2 BSLRobShields

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Posted 24 April 2017 - 09:09 AM

Foster didn't participate in these drills?  Been interesting to see that there.

 

PFF loves Lawson.  They have had the Ravens taking him in several mocks.


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#3 BSLRobShields

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Posted 24 April 2017 - 10:55 AM

BTW, I forgot about this stat but I love it.  

 

While its not the end all be all., i think it has a lot of value.


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#4 BSLMikeRandall

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Posted 24 April 2017 - 01:32 PM

BTW, I forgot about this stat but I love it.  
 
While its not the end all be all., i think it has a lot of value.



Especially if you are over the top "explosive" like J.J. Watt and Vic Beasley were. Seems like a pretty good predictor.

Last year Gabe mentioned one that I cant find out there. Force ratings, or something. Was hoping to compare the two.
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#5 BSLGabeFerguson

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Posted 25 April 2017 - 11:44 AM

Awesome stuff Mike. Derek Rivers is the guy I highlighted earlier in my edge rusher piece. He would be my ideal round 2 pick, wouldnt even hate him in R1.

 

 I think you are referring to Force Players, which is an analytics approach based on athletic testing developed by Justis Mosqueda. 

 

It's actually a very powerful predictor of NFL success for edge players. 

 

http://settingedge.com/movement


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#6 BSLRobShields

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Posted 25 April 2017 - 01:35 PM

What are the chances Rivers is there in R2?
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#7 BSLRobShields

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Posted 25 April 2017 - 01:40 PM

Sounds like 2-3 round area.
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#8 bnickle

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Posted 25 April 2017 - 01:50 PM

Better than 50/50. Edge guys are gonna fall. 



#9 BSLGabeFerguson

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Posted 25 April 2017 - 02:54 PM

Who knows. I would not be surprised if Rivers goes R1. Look at his measurables, look at his tape, look at his production. 

 

Anyone who follows the draft knows there are always "surprises".


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#10 BSLRobShields

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Posted 25 April 2017 - 03:06 PM

Foster not being invited to the draft. Is he really going to fall into R2?

I heard this morning that people are saying diluted samples normally are done because of marijuana use. I didn't know that and that's why questions are being raised.
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#11 bnickle

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Posted 25 April 2017 - 03:09 PM

Foster not being invited to the draft. Is he really going to fall into R2?

I heard this morning that people are saying diluted samples normally are done because of marijuana use. I didn't know that and that's why questions are being raised.

We discussed this the other day. The draft experts are convinced he still goes Top 20. Most still have him in the Top 15. 



#12 BSLRobShields

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Posted 25 April 2017 - 03:45 PM

We discussed this the other day. The draft experts are convinced he still goes Top 20. Most still have him in the Top 15.


Yep...I'm seeing that too but guys drop all the time.

Hell, I have seen locks with Davis in R2. These guys are only guessing at the end of the day but still, the consistency of those projections and the fact that these guys all talk to people in the know makes me think he doesn't fall that far.
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#13 BSLRobShields

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Posted 25 April 2017 - 03:46 PM

I'm curious how much weight some of you put into these numbers. Like I said, I really like them and feel they are very valuable.
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#14 BSLGabeFerguson

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Posted 25 April 2017 - 05:03 PM

Mike Lombardi said Foster will go in the 2nd. He is very much in tune with the league I think more than a lot of the draft "experts". For instance he was first to report on Richard Sherman being available for trade which people scoffed at until it came out. He also called Timmy Jernigan trade talks. Matt Miller also said he could slip to early 2nd round, so I think there is a wide range of outcomes with Foster from maybe 10-50.


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#15 BSLGabeFerguson

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Posted 26 April 2017 - 12:29 AM

I'm curious how much weight some of you put into these numbers. Like I said, I really like them and feel they are very valuable.

Some positions are more projectable than others and of course there are always outliers. That said, the vast majority of successful NFL players hit a certain athletic threshold. 

 

If you are not even an average athlete (by NFL standards), it becomes extremely hard to find success.


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#16 BSLMikeRandall

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Posted 26 April 2017 - 11:06 AM

I'm curious how much weight some of you put into these numbers. Like I said, I really like them and feel they are very valuable.



I think the numbers like this may only really apply at the LB and DE positions. I wouldn't say it takes "skills" to be J.J. Watt. No one talks about his technique. When you talk about Watt it basically is he is a beast, freak of nature, and good luck stopping him. If he's a little too upright off the line, oh well. He's still gonna run someone over.

Whereas you can be a 4.3 40-WR, but if you can't catch (Perriman) what are you? You can throw the ball 70 yards but if it's not on target (Boller) what are you? I think if you applied "explosion numbers" to QBs, Brady Quinn probably tops the list. Didn't he bench like 33 reps or something?

At these positions where your job is simply out muscle blockers, get to the football, whether it's in the QBs hands, or chasing down RBs, how strong and agile you are plays a much larger role in your ability to do that.

Most of these guys aren't Garrett strong. Or Watt or Beasley strong. So there is technique that needs to be there to overcome what they lack in strength.

I guess what I mean is, someone with the combine numbers Garrett put up warants 1st overall selection status. John Ross running 4.22 would not because there are other things you need to do well to excel at his position. If Garrett lacks hip bend or something, I think he'll still be ok.
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