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#41 Ricker Says

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Posted 08 November 2016 - 02:18 PM

For the first time ever I didn't vote for POTUS. I still voted but left that portion blank
  I did something similar.   Wouldn't have if Maryland was a swing state, though.
Samesies.
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#42 RShack

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Posted 08 November 2016 - 02:20 PM


Or are the early votes kept secret and locked up until today and are counted along with the rest? Feel like that would be fair anyway.

 

They're required to do it that way...


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#43 Ricker Says

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Posted 08 November 2016 - 02:20 PM

Silver has Clinton with a 77% chance of winning PA, 58.3% in NV, 55.5% in NC and 55.1% in FL, but who knows how accurate that is.

It's accurate. Silver is more on the conservative side with projecting odds to win. Lot of models show NV out of reach for Trump based on the early voting data. Early voting may have also swung FL Clinton's way but that one is closer still. Regardless, the Hispanic early vote in FL is just huge for Clinton.
@0TheRick0 (AKA The Rick)
"You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the damn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all." ~ The Earl of Baltimore

#44 Nigel Tufnel

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Posted 08 November 2016 - 02:43 PM

I just mean that, even though he predicts Clinton as the winner each of those states, if you assume the probabilities are independent, she only has about a 1 in 7 chance of winning all four states.  Of course, the probabilities probably aren't completely independent.



#45 Nigel Tufnel

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Posted 08 November 2016 - 03:16 PM

"Is Zach Britton on your ballot, Melania? I can't find him on mine."

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#46 RampageBassoon

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Posted 08 November 2016 - 03:29 PM

Silver has Clinton with a 77% chance of winning PA, 58.3% in NV, 55.5% in NC and 55.1% in FL, but who knows how accurate that is.
It's accurate. Silver is more on the conservative side with projecting odds to win. Lot of models show NV out of reach for Trump based on the early voting data. Early voting may have also swung FL Clinton's way but that one is closer still. Regardless, the Hispanic early vote in FL is just huge for Clinton.
Yeah the increase in Latinx vote is huge. Almost makes up for the voter suppression of the AA vote in NC Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

#47 RShack

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Posted 08 November 2016 - 04:08 PM

Nate Silver vs. Sam Wang provides an interesting minor methodology squabble.  http://www.newsweek....sam-wang-517993

 

Wang is the guy who does the Princeton studies:  http://election.princeton.edu/

 

I look at both of them.

 

Wang's been better than Nate at predicting the Senate.


 "You say you've lost your faith, but that's not where its at.

  You have no faith to lose, and ya know it" - Bob Dylan


#48 RShack

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Posted 08 November 2016 - 04:27 PM

What works to turn out voters?

 

http://washingtonmon...urn-out-voters/


 "You say you've lost your faith, but that's not where its at.

  You have no faith to lose, and ya know it" - Bob Dylan


#49 RShack

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Posted 08 November 2016 - 04:31 PM

I saw Silver has Hilary around 65% chance to win.  

 

71.8% as of 7 hours ago...

 

http://projects.five...id=rrpromo#plus


 "You say you've lost your faith, but that's not where its at.

  You have no faith to lose, and ya know it" - Bob Dylan


#50 Pedro Cerrano

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Posted 08 November 2016 - 04:33 PM

They'll announce one of Florida, NC or Ohio (likely NC) for Hillary and that will be that.

 

More interested in the Senate.

 

Haven't been following the House races, but it looks like the GOP is safe there.


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#51 Mark Carver

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Posted 08 November 2016 - 04:38 PM

It's accurate. Silver is more on the conservative side with projecting odds to win. Lot of models show NV out of reach for Trump based on the early voting data. Early voting may have also swung FL Clinton's way but that one is closer still. Regardless, the Hispanic early vote in FL is just huge for Clinton.

 

Not all Hispanic voters in FL are Democratic. The Cuban Hispanic lean towards Republican whereas Puerto Rican Hispanic lean towards Democrats. Cuban Hispanic make up the largest population amongst Hispanics, followed by Puerto Rican and than others.

 

http://www.pewhispan...ection-florida/


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#52 RShack

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Posted 08 November 2016 - 04:42 PM

Not all Hispanic voters in FL are Democratic. The Cuban Hispanic lean towards Republican whereas Puerto Rican Hispanic lean towards Democrats. Cuban Hispanic make up the largest population amongst Hispanics, followed by Puerto Rican and than others.

 

http://www.pewhispan...ection-florida/

 

Historically, the bolded part has been very true.  But this is changing rapidly due to the changing age of the Cuban-American population.

 

The number of Cuban-Americans who remember Fidel enough to hate him is dwindling rapidly, and the number who mainly wanna be able to hop on a plane or ferry and go visit the place is also growing rapidly.


 "You say you've lost your faith, but that's not where its at.

  You have no faith to lose, and ya know it" - Bob Dylan


#53 Icterus galbula

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Posted 08 November 2016 - 04:49 PM

Just came back from doing my duty. Only two people ahead of me in line.

 

They gave out these stickers: Blue%2BDog%2Bsticker.jpg

 

http://www.wwltv.com...ation/333720741



#54 RShack

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Posted 08 November 2016 - 04:53 PM

They'll announce one of Florida, NC or Ohio (likely NC) for Hillary and that will be that.

 

More interested in the Senate.

 

Haven't been following the House races, but it looks like the GOP is safe there.

 

Depends on exactly what you mean.   What if the GOP House members succeed in taking the Speakership away from Ryan?  You know a bunch of the extremists are gonna try to do exactly that.  If they succeed, then all bets are off.  

 

It's not entirely crazy that some of the non-extreme Republicans who are terrified by what's been happening to their party just might listen to Nancy tell them she's got ~200 votes to help them win the Speakership and pass some very moderate stuff in bipartisan fashion that's very, very popular among the citizenry.  

 

Remember, there was a *lot* of stuff that would have passed both the House and Senate very, very easily last term if only it had been brought to a vote... but the GOP leadership of both houses would not permit Congress to vote on any of it...


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  You have no faith to lose, and ya know it" - Bob Dylan


#55 Mark Carver

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Posted 08 November 2016 - 04:55 PM

Historically, the bolded part has been very true.  But this is changing rapidly due to the changing age of the Cuban-American population.

 

The number of Cuban-Americans who remember Fidel enough to hate him is dwindling rapidly, and the number who mainly wanna be able to hop on a plane or ferry and go visit the place is also growing rapidly.

 

As of January 2016. My point is that not all Hispanic voters in FL are registered Democratic like the rest of the country.

 

PH_Election-Fact-Sheet-2016_Florida-01.p


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#56 Markus

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Posted 08 November 2016 - 04:55 PM

Just got home from voting. Took all of 5 minutes.

Feel like I need I take a shower.

On the plus side, did vote yes on Prop 64. So I got that going for me, which is nice.

Lemme get two claps and a Ric Flair


#57 BSLSethBondroff

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Posted 08 November 2016 - 05:00 PM

I think she takes Florida AND North Carolina. 


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#58 RShack

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Posted 08 November 2016 - 05:03 PM

As of January 2016. My point is that not all Hispanic voters in FL are registered Democratic like the rest of the country.

PH_Election-Fact-Sheet-2016_Florida-01.p


Right... in 10 years, Republicans have gone from comprising nearly 40% of Hispanics down to being little more than a quarter of them... a lot of their growth is in Democrats, a lot of it is in Independents... very little in Republicans.   What we don't know is how the Republicans among them will vote this time...


 "You say you've lost your faith, but that's not where its at.

  You have no faith to lose, and ya know it" - Bob Dylan


#59 BSLZackKiesel

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Posted 08 November 2016 - 05:09 PM

Just voted here in Howard County. Totally painless, no line at all. Pretty small area, so not much electioneering. Did see what looked like 3 Trump "poll-watchers" looking on peacefully from a distance.


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#60 RShack

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Posted 08 November 2016 - 05:12 PM

Just voted here in Howard County. Totally painless, no line at all. Pretty small area, so not much electioneering. Did see what looked like 3 Trump "poll-watchers" looking on peacefully from a distance.

 

Were you suspicious looking?


 "You say you've lost your faith, but that's not where its at.

  You have no faith to lose, and ya know it" - Bob Dylan





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