BSL: The 1st Half and the Ravens

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#1 BSLAndyGuyader


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Posted 31 July 2016 - 11:42 PM



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#2 BSLChrisStoner



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Posted 01 August 2016 - 10:06 AM

Intuitively, I'm not surprised that teams that due well early in games win more often... but I am a bit surprised it is as profound as it is.  Definitely some interesting info there.

Look forward to the article next week, on how teams get ahead, and hold those leads.

#3 BSLMikeRandall


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Posted 01 August 2016 - 10:29 AM

Pretty interesting. I wonder how far you could break it down. Leading by 6 or less at the half. 7-10, 10+, home vs away.

#4 BSLMikeRandall


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Posted 01 August 2016 - 10:41 AM

Like say if the winning percentage leading by 10 is much larger than leading by 7, it could allieviate teams settling for taking a knee with under a minute in the half.

Even more so if the flip side is that leading by 4, if you turn it over and allow a FG, is the same percentage as leading by 7, it justifies the risk.
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#5 jkough1



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Posted 01 August 2016 - 11:34 AM

I want to understand this stat:


When did the winning team score the go-ahead for good points? Almost 1135 of the 1792 regular season games (about 64%) the team leading at halftime maintained the lead throughout the rest of the game. 


This isn't the "game winning points" right? So say the Ravens are up 14-10 and they win 21-20 that would fall into the 64%? Or is it if they were up 14-10 it would only qualify if the opposing team only got to 13? Is it maintained a lead and never trailed? Is it maintained at least that much of a lead? This wasn't totally clear to me. 


I guess I'm not all that surprised by this stat. I'd say that ~40% of NFL games are fairly easy to predict if only selecting wins and losses, maybe -5 or higher in the spread of the games. And the final game percentages probably don't look all that different than the half time percentages (that definitely doesn't surprise me).


When the "better" team doesn't have it, I'm guessing that's because the "worse" team has exploited or found something, or a quality player from the "better" team is just off for the game. And thus making it much harder for that team to transform in the 2nd half as well. 


I'd be interested to see if we could overlay the data on teams / games that were within the -2 and +2 range at the end of the game. And if the same trend proved to be true. That would seem to show a more causal link to me that having the lead at half time means you're more likely to win. 


I'm intrigued by the data, but not all that surprised. 

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