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BSL: Outcoached, overthinking in Cincy


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#1 BSLMikeRandall

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Posted 26 October 2014 - 06:07 PM

http://baltimorespor...thinking-cincy/

 

Immediate reaction to the Ravens 27-24 loss at the hands of the Bengals. 


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#2 BSLGabeFerguson

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Posted 26 October 2014 - 07:00 PM

Going for it on 4th down from the 1 is always the right decision.
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#3 jkough1

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Posted 26 October 2014 - 08:31 PM

Joe is just terrible against Cinci for some reason.  When your top two receivers are rookies...esp for the Ravens in a game.  Yuck. 

 

For all the Kubiak love, he needs to teach Joe to read defenses and to run when he has the chance.  I think we need to use more of the hard biting play action roll outs too.  The one INT was on him for staring his guy down and even if the other was fluky for the Smith hit and stopped route, he had several other questionable throws that could have been INTs.

 

Kubiak can't figure out how to get T. Smith involved and it feels like they force it to him.  They need to scheme him open early.  And I'm not talking about a forced slant.  I'm talking about an end around, or something where he gets open.

 

I'm late to this train, but I'm getting tired of Pees.  We're not bad at anything but we're not good at anything.  It almost always seems like on big downs our play calling defensively is predictable (deep Cover 3) and leaves us open to deep shots.  We're not talented enough to stay in base defense on big downs like that.  

 

That loss was frustrating.  For as bad as we can be on the road, that's another winnable game against a good team.  At least it feels like Pitt doesn't have Joe's number like Cinci does, but if the pass rush looks like it did for Pitt against Indi, we could be in some trouble next week.



#4 bnickle

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Posted 26 October 2014 - 08:58 PM

Outcoached. That simple. Joe was bad too though. Every time you think he's turned a corner he throws up a stinker. It's why he'll always be disrespected to some degree.

#5 bnickle

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Posted 26 October 2014 - 09:02 PM

And I do think Kubiak has cleaned some stuff up with Joe. His fundamental footwork is as good as ever.

It's just that Joe is always going to be able to be baited at times. You can confuse him . Hes not a great presnap reader of the defense. It's why giving him complete control at the LOS over 16 games was never going to work.

#6 Pedro Cerrano

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Posted 26 October 2014 - 09:18 PM

Going for it on 4th down from the 1 is always the right decision.


With the benefit of hindsight clearly going for it was the bad decision. That said, if you can't get a yard in that situation you may not deserve to win.

There is baseball, and occasionally there are other things of note

"Now OPS sucks.  Got it."

"Making his own olive brine is peak Mackus."

"I'm too hungover to watch a loss." - McNulty

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#7 BSLMikeRandall

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Posted 26 October 2014 - 09:42 PM

Going for it on 4th down from the 1 is always the right decision.



Why? Flacco only completes that pass 45% of the time? Tucker gives you three 100% of the time from there. I dont know what the % of run success is there but they just went 0-3 before the pass.

I wouldn't go for the TD until the game dictated it. Like when Dalton punched it in.
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#8 DJ MC

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Posted 26 October 2014 - 09:47 PM

Why? Flacco only completes that pass 45% of the time? Tucker gives you three 100% of the time from there. I dont know what the % of run success is there but they just went 0-3 before the pass.

I wouldn't go for the TD until the game dictated it. Like when Dalton punched it in.

 

Flacco's percentage, plus the percentage of a successful run, plus the four points, makes it worth gambling the essentially guaranteed three.


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#9 Pedro Cerrano

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Posted 26 October 2014 - 09:51 PM

I'm not sure if this is just me remembering the bad stuff, but I feel like the Ravens, more than most teams, call ridiculous plays when they just need a yard or two. Today they just needed a short gain to move the chains and we threw some absurd out pattern 25 yards down field. Annoying.

There is baseball, and occasionally there are other things of note

"Now OPS sucks.  Got it."

"Making his own olive brine is peak Mackus."

"I'm too hungover to watch a loss." - McNulty

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#10 BSLMikeRandall

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Posted 26 October 2014 - 09:57 PM

 
Flacco's percentage, plus the percentage of a successful run, plus the four points, makes it worth gambling the essentially guaranteed three.



Is it? What's the % of scoring on the ground? I know at least at that point it was 0% on 3 tries.
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#11 DJ MC

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Posted 26 October 2014 - 09:59 PM

Is it? What's the % of scoring on the ground? I know at least at that point it was 0% on 3 tries.

 

Well gee, we're lucky they ran the ball at all the rest of the game after that :rolleyes:


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#12 Pedro Cerrano

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Posted 26 October 2014 - 09:59 PM

The bottom line is it's one yard. When you need one freaking yard to get 7 instead of 3 I think you have to go for it. For some reason the Ravens hate running the ball as often as they should.

There is baseball, and occasionally there are other things of note

"Now OPS sucks.  Got it."

"Making his own olive brine is peak Mackus."

"I'm too hungover to watch a loss." - McNulty

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#13 BSLMikeRandall

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Posted 26 October 2014 - 10:01 PM

 
Well gee, we're lucky they ran the ball at all the rest of the game after that :rolleyes:



You know what I mean. Their goal line D shut them down three times
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#14 BSLMikeRandall

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Posted 26 October 2014 - 10:05 PM

Its no sense arguing about. The same situation will come up again and they may get the 7. That'd be awesome.

But in that particular play, at that time, the way the defense allowed Cincy to march down the field to start the game, I would not have been shocked to see them do it again. Luckily they didn't because good luck coming back from 14-0 on the road when this staff would have abandoned the run.

They left points on the field in the first game when Joe didnt get the play off at the end of the half. It left them needing six instead of a Tucker FG to tie. They did it again in Indy, and again today. All close losses. I can't think of one instance in their five wins where a bonehead decision cost them points, not including penalties or something. Could be 7-1, 6-2 if you take the easy points.
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#15 DJ MC

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Posted 26 October 2014 - 10:06 PM

You know what I mean. Their goal line D shut them down three times

 

Sure. But you're asking them to do that for a fourth time.

 

Either run or pass, the chance of scoring seven on that play is worth the risk of scoring three.


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#16 bnickle

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Posted 26 October 2014 - 10:14 PM

We've gone through this before on 4th down and we don't get it very often. I remember the exact same scenario in one of our early games last year where we got stuffed. Maybe someone remembers who it was against.


It depends on the situation but when you fail on 4th and short as often as we do it has to make you think twice.


The two things I generally dont like about not taking the points. One is when you do it on the road. It gives the home team momentum. You do it at home, you at least have the road team backed up in a loud end zone. 2nd, is have a feel for the type of game it's gonna be. That was my argument last year. This was a game that you fully expect to have to battle for points. It's gonna be tight. Take them when you have them. It's a big difference f you're playing @ Den or @NO, or GB where you ynow you're likely going to need a bunch of points.
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#17 bnickle

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Posted 26 October 2014 - 10:14 PM

That reminds me. Wasn't it the GB game last year where we did it and failed??

#18 BSLRobShields

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Posted 26 October 2014 - 10:26 PM

Again, going for it there likely didn't keep 3 off the board.

For that to have cost them 3 points, we would have had to make the FG, kick it off, immediately stop them and then go down and get another score.

In this scenario, they didn't get the TD(because Aiken dropped it), they stopped Cinci on a 3 and out and got much better field position then they likely would have gotten had they kicked the FG...they then went down and scored.

And that scenario is the exact scenario of why you go for it....I believe we went through this last year and you are still likely to score something like 60% of the time in that scenario anyway.

Now, I do agree that you don't always go for it....I didn't have an issue with it today and it's not so cut and dry that it cost us the game because we lost by 3 points.

You guys want to talk about coaching...most, if not all, coaches go for it there because statistically speaking, that is what you do.

We got outcoached though...as we normally do vs Cinci.
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#19 BSLRobShields

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Posted 26 October 2014 - 10:27 PM

That reminds me. Wasn't it the GB game last year where we did it and failed??


Yes....and I wanted to take the points there because that's a team that scores and the situation at the time dictated we kick it IMO.

That wasn't the same today.
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#20 BSLMichaelWeber

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Posted 26 October 2014 - 11:06 PM

I generally support going for it on 4th and goal from the 1, but of course it depends on game situation and the confidence of converting there. As for the situation, I would be more apt to go for it against a high powered offense than a lower scoring team.






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