Finding Consensus Part 1 of 4: Hiring of Duquette & What the O’s should accomplish this Winter

I spend a lot of time reading the thoughts of others, going to many web sites all over the web.  When I find commentary I respect, I like to reach out to those writers for their analysis.

In the last day, I’ve posted interviews with six different writers, getting their thoughts on the Orioles. Now in a four-part series, I want to take a closer look at the collective responses received.

The six writers interviewed (with links to their individual interviews) were:

Dan Szymborski, BBTF / ESPN
https://baltimoresportsandlife.com/?p=3285

Jonathan Mitchell, MLB Dirt
https://baltimoresportsandlife.com/?p=3280

Bob Harkins, NBC Sports
https://baltimoresportsandlife.com/?p=3278

Matt Klaassen, FanGraphs / Beyond the Boxscore
https://baltimoresportsandlife.com/?p=3276

David Pinto, Baseball Musings / Baseball Analytics
https://baltimoresportsandlife.com/?p=3272

Gary Armida, Baseball Report / Baseball Digest
https://baltimoresportsandlife.com/?p=3265

Here in Part 1, we are going to look at two questions. 1) What were your thoughts on the hiring of Duquette, and does his absence from the game concern you? 2) What are a couple of things you believe the O’s should be working to accomplish this Winter?

“What are your thoughts on the hiring of Duquette, and does his absence from the game concern you?”

Szymborski: “Tony LaCava was the preferred choice of most fans that were following the story, but while LaCava was an excellent candidate who should eventually get a GM job elsewhere, there’s really nothing to worry about with Duquette.  Duquette’s not some anti-sabermetrics guy – he hired a stathead before it was cool in Mike Gimbel – and he was the farm director and then GM that built the Expos into a player-producing factory in the 90s.  Duquette’s only real issue is an occasional lack of tact with the media, which is a much bigger issue in Boston than it is in Baltimore.  I’m not sure the layoff concerns me too much – whatever contacts in baseball he missed out on in the last decade will be caught up fairly quickly.  He’s the GM after all and if another team has a player you want, you’re going to talk to that team no matter who’s running the show.”

Mitchell: “I, personally, like Duquette and think he will do well with a good budget. He has a solid track record with free agent signings and making trades. But, he lacks in drafting and being away from the game for a while could hurt him here if he does not lean heavily on his scouting director. The game has changed a lot in his absence and he will need to rely on his personnel a lot more than he was probably used to.”

Harkins: “I think you have to be a little bit concerned with Duquette having been out of the game for nine years. That being said, he is still only 53, and the fact that he has a good background in scouting and player development, with some past success in the draft, makes him a good fit for the Orioles.”

Klaassen: “Duquette is somewhat unfairly remembered as merely being the guy that got canned so that Beane/Theo could take the Boston job. As has been pointed out, he was the one who obtained many of the key pieces for the 2004 championship team, and he also put together some really good talent in Montreal, including the ill-fated 1994 team.

The Orioles have no choice but to give him a fair shake, but the fact that he really hasn’t sniffed the big leagues since the Boston gig sends up a few warning flags. More important is the question as to what kinds of contacts he still has around baseball for bringing in new people, scouts, analysts, and so on to improve things on the field and in the front office. I don’t know the answer to that, but I it is fair to guess “not as much as if he had been working in the the MLB the last ten years.”

Pinto: “His absence from the game does not concern me.  While not directly involved in Major League Baseball, Duquette remained active in the game in other capacities. Given the long life of executives in the game, I suspect his network of contacts is still intact.  I don’t think he’ll have any problems getting back in the game.”

Armida: “I think the Orioles lucked out here and made the perfect hire. If you look at Duquette’s track record as a GM, he has excelled in player development, excelled in the trade market, and has shown an ability to make hard decisions with retaining players. He took a beating for not re-signing Mo Vaughn and he proved to be right. The whole Roger Clemens thing about being in the twilight of his career was right given what we know about Clemens now. He’s worked in two tough situations and made his team contenders by developing talent and making good trades.”

The time off is a good question. I don’t think it hurts him. He’s still be involved in scouting and has kept plugged in. He’s a baseball man who is polished, experienced, and has experience in different, difficult markets. He’s exactly who the Orioles need. Peter Angelos isn’t easy to work for. Someone with experience was needed. It worked out well for them, even if it wasn’t their plan.”

“What are a couple of things you believe the O’s should be working to accomplish this Winter?”

Szymborski: “Working and developing long-term strategic thinking and actually sticking to the plan rather than randomly trying to hotshot 81 wins every few years.  The O’s have to develop players like the Rays to be as good as the Rays and right now, that’s like trying to compete in the Indianapolis 500 with an old Chevy Chevette.  If the O’s want to be a serious, relevant team, then they have to make hard decisions, something the team avoids like the plague.”

Mitchell: “I think they have to look towards the future and figure out which current pieces work in their proposed future scenario. They play in the toughest division in all of baseball and it is very likely, as crazy as this may sound, that the four teams ahead of them each get better this offseason. They either need to sign all of C.J. Wilson, Prince Fielder, Albert Pujols, and Jose Reyes or rebuild. I don’t see that happening. They must rebuild around their young core and wait to spend in the exciting free agent market that awaits next offseason.”

Harkins: “I think the big thing the Orioles should do is to not follow last season’s path of handing out money to past-their-prime veterans like Vladimir Guerrero and Derrek Lee. The makeup of the major league roster and minor league system has improved in recent years and there are some nice pieces in place such as Matt Wieters, J.J. Hardy, Nick Markakis and Adam Jones, but the talent base simply isn’t broad or deep enough to compete with the big bullies in the AL East – particularly in the pitching department. So band-aid fixes with players like Guerrero might put some fans in seats temporarily, but it’s not going to be enough to make this team competitive. I think Duquette’s plan of focusing on player development is the right course of action. In the meantime, search for bargains on the free agent market of the younger/cheaper variety to fill spots on the current roster until a pipeline of young talent is established. This is difficult but not impossible. Two examples off the top of my head: The Rangers signing Colby Lewis out of Japan two years ago, and the Giants grabbing Ryan Vogelsong off the minor league scrap heap last January.”

Klaassen: “The first thing they need to accomplish is figuring out what their organizational goals are. Honestly, a new GM saying “we want to improve out player development” is like a politician saying “I want to improve the economy.” Pretty much everyone says that, because it is obvious – even the Yankees would not be what they are without having guys like Cano and Gardner at relatively cheap levels.

My point is that while Duquette is saying that, and it is the right strategy, well, a) does he mean it, and b) more importantly, is the rest of the organization on board with it? A few years ago, I thought the Os were on the brink of making some noise, and despite making some good moves (they also made some bad ones), some things didn’t work out. Markakis never came close to replicating his 2008, Adam Jones has become a good payer rather than a superstar, Matt Wieters (more on him below) didn’t immediately make anyone forget Mike Piazza, and the young pitchers didn’t work out.

At this point, the Orioles can’t pretend like they are just a couple of tweaks away. They also need to stop with the ill-conceived “get to .500” strategy that worked out so poorly the last couple of off-seasons. I’m not saying they have to trade every player and give up. However, I think they need to start setting a more realistic timetable for contention. They need to start figuring out how and when they are going to win 92 games, not adding pieces here and there to win 82. And the latter is the strategy they seem to have been following the last few offseasons. Their core just hasn’t turned out to be that great.”

Pinto: “While there may be a solid core in Baltimore, not all of them performed up to expectations.  The front office should decide who really can play, and make sure the team is built around those players.  They may also want to take some of the older ones, like Nick Markakis, and see if they can be flipped for near MLB ready minor league talent.  I don’t think a patch job will put the Orioles in contention.”

Armida: “I do think the Orioles underachieved and had a lot go wrong last year. The first thing they have to do is figure out if their young pitching is for real. I think each young starter had the worst possible scenario happen. A veteran starter to eat some innings would be ideal, but I’d like to see them roll out Jake Arrieta, Brian Matusz, Chris Tillman, and Zach Britton every fifth day. They have to figure out if they can be those anchors or not. If they determine that they can project to be quality Major Leaguers, they build from there.

For the winter, I’d like to see them go after a low risk, high reward player like Grady Sizemore and add to the bullpen a bit. Honestly, they are in a position where they have pieces in place that won’t allow for major changes right now. So, barring a trade, I think they enter the spring with basically the same team.”

Do you agree or disagree with these writers, with these topics?