With the usual apologies to former Baltimore Sun and current Baltimore Ravens.com columnist John Eisenberg, here are some facts and opinions on the Baltimore Orioles.

(You can discuss this on the BSL Board here.)

Fact: In the first half of the season, Schoop had a slash line of 304/338/509/847. In the second half, his slash line is 219/244/385/629. His UZR numbers, which were around zero or slightly better, have come down as the second half has dragged on.

Opinion: Schoop is a free swinger who is never going to walk that much but he has played every inning or every game this year. Buck has done a poor job of giving him some time off. I am not ready to say he was going to be an 820+ OPS guy for the whole season but something in the 780-810 range was within reason and I think playing him too much has contributed to him slumping all the way down to a 751 OPS, that includes a sub 300 OBP.

Fact: Manny Machado had a 318/375/569/944 slash line in the first half and in the second half, he has a 274/317/511/828 slash line. After seeing his walk rate go from 5.6 to 9.8 last year, it’s back down to 7.1%. His RISP slash line is 258/354/485.839 and his RSIP with 2 outs is 164/324/273/597.

Opinion: It feels like forever since Manny came up with a big, crucial hit for this team. His RISP numbers aren’t great and IMO, part of the problem is the players behind him. He gets pitched around a lot in those situations HOWEVER, he also has to recognize that and when he doesn’t, he has poor at bats. His swing is too long and he seems to be looking to hit homers instead of just going gap to gap and using all fields. He is seemingly trying to pull everything now. He has disappointed me in this month (sub 750 OPS thus far) when he had a chance to grab hold of that MVP trophy and not let it go. I think he has a lot of maturing to do.

Fact: Dylan Bundy performed well when he was initially moved into the rotation. In his first 5 starts, he had a 2.15 ERA over 29.3 IP. He averaged over 1 K per 9IP and his walk rate was 1.5. Since then, he has had 7 starts, 3 of the 7 starts he gave up 3 runs or less but overall he has given up 9 homers, struck out 1 batter less per 9 IP and he has seen his walk rate go to 5 per 9 IP. His ERA is 6.35 in that span.

Opinion: Shut him down. I wanted him shut down a few months ago. The velocity has dipped and the command is far worse. He has done more than we hoped this year and I am fully confident in him being at least a solid starter next year, provided that he stays healthy. That being said, you are risking things with him right now IMO and I don’t see the point in doing that.

Fact: Chris Davis has 38 homers and a very solid UZR of 5.9. His walk rate is an excellent 13.2%. His fWAR is 2.8 and his rWAR is 3.1. With the cost of a win being what it is (around 7million, give or take), he has been worth his contract this year.

Opinion: He has been terrible to watch for most of this season. His BA is an abysmal 217. His OPS is under 800 and his OBP is a subpar 330. I think UZR overrates him as a defensive player but I do think he is average over there and isn’t a guy that hurts you with the glove. He only has 20 doubles, which is terrible for a player of his power. I know he has had the hand issue and they say its bothered him for most of the season but it always seems to be some reason why he struggles. I still wish we could get out of his contract even though I know its possible he could have a monster season or 2 in the next 6 years.

Fact: Zach Britton has continued his dominant season. He has given up FOUR earned runs all year! His peripherals are great and he hasn’t blown a save. He leads all pitchers who have thrown at least 50 innings, in WPA and he leads by a wide margin. He has a 5.73 WPA. Andrew Miller is second at 4.58 and the closest starter is Jon Lester, at 4.47.

Opinion: Britton has a better case for MVP than Cy Young. The way the Orioles win games and the amount of clutch situations he has been in makes him extremely valuable to this team. Couple that with his actual numbers and he has a legit MVP case IMO. It’s tough for me to give him Cy Young since he has only thrown 63 innings. For the record, I don’t think he should win either but his MVP case is strong.

Fact: The Orioles are 83-71. They are essentially out of the division race and are currently .5 games out of the second wild card spot. They have 8 games left, including the last home games of the year against Arizona.

Opinion: They are a reeling team that ends the year on the road against 2 good teams who are fighting for a playoff spot themselves. For the Orioles to have a chance at getting into the playoffs, they need to sweep Arizona. If they do that, they will put themselves in position to make the playoffs. If they don’t, I think they just miss out.

Fact: Detroit is finishing up a series vs. KC this weekend and then they have 4 at home vs. Cleveland before ending the year against the lowly Braves. They are currently in the playoffs.

Opinion: This isn’t the easiest schedule to end with but it also highlights the need for the Orioles to beat up on Arizona this weekend. Detroit still has a schedule advantage over the Orioles and they are playing better baseball.

Fact: Seattle is 1.5 games behind the Orioles and 2 games behind Detroit for the final wild card spot. They have 2 games vs. Minnesota left this weekend and end with a 4 game series at home vs. Oakland. In between, they have a crucial 3 game series at Houston. Houston is 2.5 games out of a wild card spot. They have the Seattle series and 5 games left vs. the Angels.

Opinion: Both Houston and Seattle have a scheduling advantage over the Orioles but the Orioles do have a lead on them. These 2 teams will beat each other up for 3 games but the schedule is favorable to them outside of that. We can’t overlook either of these teams as potential playoff teams.

Opinion: The Orioles fall a few wins short of making the playoffs.

Rob Shields
Rob Shields

Rob has interviewed guests from outlets such as ESPN, Sports Illustrated, NBC Sports, CBS Sports, FOX Sports, Baseball Prospectus, Athlon, Sporting News, MLB Network, Brooks Baseball, Baseball Info Solutions, The Boston Globe, The Washington Post, Sports on Earth, Grantland, NFL Network, FanGraphs, Football Outsiders, ProFootballFocus, etc. etc. The Baltimore native lives in Perry Hall with his Wife Lindsay, and two young sons. He has appeared as a guest on 105.7 The Fan, Q1370, and WNST 1570. Co-Host of The Warehouse: https://anchor.fm/the-warehouse Co-Host of Sports Tonight: https://anchor.fm/sports-tonight

X