For a team with a 5-1 record overall, and a 2 game lead in the AFC North; the Baltimore Ravens are facing numerous questions and adversity as they begin preparations for the Houston Texans this coming Sunday.

The news of the loss of Lardarius Webb to an ACL injury, and possibly Ray Lewis’ with a torn triceps, forces a reevaluation of where the Ravens are, and what remains possible this year.

Let’s review the roster by position group:

QB: Flacco
Through 6 games, Flacco is completing 61.7% of his passes (above his career average of 60.9). He has thrown for 1,690 yards (282 per), putting himself on pace for 4,500+ yards and a new career high. He has thrown for 8 TD’s, against 4 picks. His QB Rating is 92 (career 86.5), and he is 12th overall in ESPN’s Total Quarterback Rating (QBR) at 65.7. Overall I am pleased by Flacco’s play, but he has struggled in the two road games, and that gives some concern for the remaining six road trips. It has felt as if Flacco has been taking more hits, and the stats show he has been sacked 14 times, which ties him for the 8th most sacks taken.

RB’s: Rice, Pierce
Rice averaged 85.3 yards rushing last year, and 44 yards receiving last year. That has decreased to 80.3 yards rushing, and 38.8 yards receiving in 2011.  In 2011 he had 8 games where he had 20+ carries. So far in ’12, he has had just one game with 20 carries. Overall, Rice is on-pace for 259 carries (16.2 per), after averaging 299 (18.7 per) the past two seasons. In ’11, he had at-least 2 catches in every game. In back-to-back weeks here in ’12, he has been held to 1 in each game. His yards per carry has increased from 4.7 to 5.

Pierce has rushed for 122 yards on his first 23 carries in the NFL. That works out to 5.3 yards per carry, and 3.8 carries per game. That compares to Ricky Williams’ last year who averaged 4.1 ypc, on 6.75 carries per. Pierce has had just 2 receptions, but Williams was also a non-factor as a pass-catcher, having just 13 last year.

FB: Leach
Leach’s most valuable asset will clearly remain his lead blocking. That is where his accolades are deserved. However, he has been more of a factor as a receiver out of the backfield this year. He had 15 catches last season, and has already had 10 here in ’12. That is pretty strong contribution, especially since my perception has been that Leach has been on the field for less snaps per game this year.

WR’s: Boldin, Smith, Jones, Doss
Boldin is averaging 15.2 Yards Per Catch, and 3.6 Yards After Catch on his 28 receptions. While the YPC, and YAC is slightly lower than last year, his Yards per Game is 71.5, and that his highest mark since 2008 with the Cardinals. Over the last 3 weeks, he has had 82 yards+ each week. It seems like he can be going through games kind of invisible out there, and then Flacco and him will find each other multiple times.

Smith is pretty inspirational. Not for playing hours after the death of his brother, but his commitment to consistently working to improve, make a difference in the community, and the bond he spoke with in regards to his teammates. On the field, Smith established himself as a guy capable of taking the top off the defense last year, averaging 16.8 YPC. Amazingly he has increased that this year to 18.8. (Though his YAC is down to 4.1 from 5.0.) He’s on pace for 56 catches after 50 last year. I think he has to be even more involved with the offense. He’s shown a better ability this year to run routes over the middle of the field. He can do more than just get the go route down the field. He has had 2 games with 6 catches, 1 game with 3 catches, and 3 games with 2 catches.

Jones’ 108 KR return yesterday was explosive, but he has also helped as receiver when given the opportunity. For the year he has head 11 catches, and 185 yards (16.8 YPC). He’s basically on pace to match the production he had last year with Houston. With the Ravens having two useful TE’s (and needing those TE’s to help block), Baltimore only runs so many 3 WR sets.

Doss has caught his first 2 passes after nothing last year. When Training Camp ended last year, all of Baltimore was convinced that Doss was going to be a productive possession receiver. While that has yet to happen, it is good to see that Doss has gotten past his hernia injuries, and the encouraging comments that Harbaugh and Flacco have recently made about him.

TE’s: Pitta, Dickson, Bajema
Pitta has shown the makings of a potential star. He has increased his Yards per Game from 25.3 to 40.5. He is showing the ability to make hard catches over the middle, and provided another example of his athleticism on his diving grab yesterday. Still, after 18 catches through Week 3, he has been held to 7 in the following 3 games.

Dickson let a TD slip through his hands yesterday, which pretty much highlighted the lack of production he has provided so far this year. While there was understandable complaint about the number of drops he had last year, Dickson did have 54 catches, for 528 yards, and 5 TD’s. This year he has had just 7 catches, and has yet to score. I think Pitta could be even more productive, if they got Dickson going. Is Dickson being kept on the line more to block? If he is on the field, and not producing; is his blocking good enough to keep Jones and a 3rd WR off the field?

Bajema was activated for the first time yesterday. Part of that was to provide additional blocking against the Dallas Defensive front.

O-Line: Oher, Williams, Birk, Yanda, Osemele (McKinnie, Harewood, Gradkowski, Reid)

Going into the Dallas game, Pro Football Focus graded Oher well saying, “On a Ravens offense that has seen improvement across the board this season, the play of Michael Oher (+2.5) since his switch back to left tackle has been more than welcomed. He has allowed 16 total pressures through five games, however that remains an improvement on a year ago. Perhaps the biggest area of improvement has been seen in how many penalties he is committing. Against the Cleveland Browns he had three, but he has been penalty free in every other game this season.”

Regarding Osmele they said, “While rookie right tackle Kelechi Osemele (-7.2) started the season brightly with two positively graded games from the opening three, he has really struggled in the past two. Now ranked as our ninth-worst starting right tackle, he has allowed three sacks, two hits and 13 hurries so far this season.”

Baltimore started the year with Oher at LT, Harewood at LG, and Osemele at RT saying they thought those changes would best help the No-Huddle / Sugar Huddle offense they wanted to run. 6 games into the season, Harewood has been replaced at LG. As evidenced by the Yards per Carry of Rice, and Pierce; the line is doing a good job of opening some running lanes. As evidenced by the pressure Flacco is consistently seeing; I think there are some issues with the pass blocking.

I still think the Ravens would be better off with McKinnie at LT, Osemele at LG, and Oher at RT.

D-Line: McPhee, Kemoeatu, Ngata (Cody, Jones, Hall)

As a situational pass-rusher, McPhee was large portion of the Ravens success last year, coming up with 6 sacks in 16 games. In 6 games this year as the starter, he has 1/2 a sack.

Kemoeatu, and Cody are supposed to eat up space in the middle of the line. Take away space, don’t get pushed back from Centers and Guards; and free up the LB’s to make plays. Neither one are doing their job effectively. As I had high hopes for Cody, he is the one I am most disappointed in. Last October Harbaugh stated of Cody,“He dominates in there quite a bit. He is big, he is athletic, he is moving so well, he stays square. … I know you put him in there with Haloti, and I think our linebackers appreciate having those two guys in the middle.” This April, Harbaugh stated Cody looked tremendous in his off-season workouts. So, why in October 2012 is Cody a 340 lb ghost?

After the Ravens allowed 200+ yards rushing for the second consecutive week yesterday, Ngata talked about the run defense being unacceptable. Right now, this defense begins with Ngata. He has to dominate, even when facing consistent double (or even triple) teams. While he has 3 sacks, he is not dominating.

Am I crazy in thinking the that Ravens should consider utilizing more of a 4-3 alignment? Wouldn’t the Ravens be better off with Cody and Ngata together in the middle? This could allow for more time for Arthur Jones opposite of McPhee, maybe giving both a better chance at getting to the QB with some regularity.

LB: Upshaw, Ellerbe, McClain, McClellan (Kruger, Ayanbadejo, Kindle)

I’m not including Lewis here, with the expectation that the triceps injury is going to either keep him out for sometime, or end his year.

Matt Vensel of the Baltimore Sun had a good article today where he reached out to Pro Football Focus with some questions about the LB’s in case of Lewis’ absence.

My general take is there is some talent there. Obviously the Ravens think highly of Upshaw. McClellan has shown some positives. Kruger has 1.5 sacks, and I think he has been the only Raven player who has provided some pass rush. While he has limitations as an overall LB, I do think he has shown improvement against the run, and dropping into pass coverage as the year has progressed.

As Vensel’s article points out, McClain has been taking out on a lot of passing downs. If Lewis is out, beyond losing that experience, that is a direct change to the defense.

During most of the Summer, Ellerbe seemed like a candidate to be cut. Instead we see comments from the Ravens Coaching staff of him starting to put things all together. He has already received a lot of PT this year. The experience of playing for Lewis last year should help him now.

Looking at my own comments, I seem more enthusiastic about this group then I am. While I see some solid players, I don’t see an abundance of play-makers. There is a reason why the Ravens are 26th in Total Defense, including 23rd against the Pass, and 26th against the Run.

To me, that reason is that the defense does not do anything particularly well. We knew the pass rush would be a struggle without Suggs, but we expected the Ravens to be able to continue to take away the run. Losing Johnson and Suggs on the outside, has hurt Baltimore from sealing the edge. The NT/DT’s not winning at the line has hurt the run defense, but the LB’s have not done a good enough job either.

The key to me is Terrell Suggs returning, and performing. SI’s Peter King is reporting that Suggs might return to a light practice this week. It seems clear that Suggs will get back on the field this year. Will he be in position to perform? Will he be able to get after the QB? Will he at-least help the run defense? I think if he is on the field he will help, I don’t think we can expect him to instantly again be playing at a Defensive Player of the Year level.

Secondary: Smith, Pollard, Reed, Williams (Graham, Brown, Jackson, Ihedigbo, Considine, Thompson)

In the pass happy NFL of today, it is pretty scary being without Webb. I think he is probably one of the 3 or 4 most difficult players for this roster to replace. However, if Smith and Williams can stay healthy – and Suggs can get back and improve the pass rush – I think the defense can still be competitive enough. Williams has been crushed this year by fans, but I think he is adequate. The Ravens DB’s are giving opposing WR’s room to run by design. Mainly because they know there is no pressure from the Front 7, and they are trying to avoid being beat down the field. I don’t think any corner in the league would look good with the lack of pressure the Ravens have had this year. The key to the Secondary now is Smith. The Ravens drafted him to be elite. With his combination of size and speed, he has to be a shut-down corner. Last year he was hurt by the NFL’s labor situation, and his Week 1 injury. With full camps this year, and the experience he gained last year; he should be ready to breakout. I think we have seen signs of week to week improvement, but he has still been picked on at times. He will now be asked to raise his game.

Conclusion:
There are a bunch of good teams out there, I don’t see any ‘great’ teams.  If the Ravens can get the run-defense under control, I’ll feel better about their chances overall. The offense is obviously the strength of the team at this point.

In Houston this week, the Ravens are playing the Time of Possession leader. The Ravens are 29th overall in Time of Possession. I think it will be interesting to see if the Ravens Coaching staff decides Baltimore needs to be more of a ball-control offense to compensate for the defensive issues, or if the Ravens decide this week that they will commit to the philosophy of ‘we are going to out-score you.’

There is still a group here that can compete for a Lombardi Trophy, but after the injuries to Webb and Lewis; adjustments are necessary.

Chris Stoner
Chris Stoner

Owner

Chris Stoner founded Baltimore Sports and Life in 2009. He has appeared as a radio guest with 1090 WBAL, 105.7 The Fan, CBS 1300, Q1370, WOYK 1350, WKAV 1400, and WNST 1570. He has also been interviewed by The Baltimore Sun, Baltimore Business Journal, and PressBox (TV). As Owner, his responsibilities include serving as the Managing Editor, Publicist, & Sales Director.

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