EPL – What we know so far

With this being the last FIFA break until the spring window (March 2020) its a good time to look at the EPL. With their season almost a third done there has been plenty of soccer to give us an idea on how this season has gone and what’s in store the rest of the way. So for those who follow soccer closely the question is just what the heck does the lead in photo have to do with the EPL? Its actually pretty straightforward. That picture is Liverpool raising the UEFA Champions League Cup back this past spring. It is has plenty to do with the EPL so far this season. As in expect to see a lot of trophy raising by the Reds this season and in the near future.

(You can discuss this on the BSL Board here.)

Two years ago the EPL title was just about a foregone conclusion before the holiday break in December. Manchester City finished that remarkable year in first with a record setting 100 points having gone 32-4-2. Well this year looks to be similar except the team running away with it is Liverpool. After 12 matches they have gone 11-1-0 and are on pace for 117 points. Don’t expect them to finish that high but its likely they will finish with more points than that 2017 Manchester City side.

So lets break down what we have seen so far and how it looks for the rest of the way.

The Best

Liverpool – Just really hard to play 12 matches and the only blemish on your record is a single draw. They have the best manager in the world in Jurgen Klopp. Klopp was named the FIFA Men’s Manager of the year in September and has done nothing except to solidify that so far this season. They play an outstanding balance of attacking and defending soccer. They have 2 of the top 10 goal scorers in Sadio Mane and Mo Salah, the top passer in Virgil van Dijk, and an overall defense that 3rd in goals allowed.

And don’t expect to see them let up, especially over the next 6 weeks. They have 8 matches the rest of the calendar year and one, yes just one, of those is against a team with a winning record. They may well finish the year out with an astonishing 17-2-0 record. Insane.

The Really Good 

While overshadowed thus far by Liverpool there are 3 other clubs having outstanding seasons. And these 3 clubs are closely aligned in the current standings.

Leicester City – If it weren’t for Liverpool’s incredible start the buzz would be about the Foxes. Back in the 2014/2015 season they finished mid table in 14th place. Then had that miraculous run in 2015/2016 when they shocked the soccer world winning the EPL. But then they fell back to reality with a 12th and 2 9th place finishes. Yet once again they have jumped the pack and are sitting in 2nd. In fact they are 2nd in goals scored and 1st in goals allowed. Keeper Kasper Schmechel is tied for 1st in clean sheets with 5 in 12 matches having allowed a paltry 0.67 goals/match. If their defense continues to play like that they won’t have to score to rack up a bunch of wins. But they do score….a lot led by James Vardy with 11 good for 1st in the league. The potential red flag is that their next best goal scorer only has 4 goals for the season. Vardy, with a bit of an injury history is critical to the teams success. If he goes down finding those missing goals will be difficult.

Chelsea – AT the beginning of the season there were a lot of questions surrounding the Blues. Would the club respond to first year manager Frank Lampard? While nobody questioned his abilities as a player he was coming into the EPL with managerial experience and none in the EPL. How would the club approach playing the many youth on their roster and how US star Christian Pulisic would fare in his first season in England. And early on the questions raised seemed to be spot on. Chelsea lost its first match 4-0 to Manchester United. Meanwhile Pulisic seemed to be on the bench more than on the pitch. But fast forward to now. Chelsea has won 5 straight matches, the only side to do so, and has outscored their opponents 27-13 since their opening defeat. As for Pulisic? Well the kid has scored 5 goals and added an assist in this last 3 matches. I think both preseason questions are being answered! But if you want to talk about the success of the Blues so far it has to start with striker Tammy Abraham. Second in the league with 10 goals, the 22 year old looks to be a Chelsea and English striker for years to come.

Manchester City – Having won the EPL the last two seasons its seems odd to have the Citizens sitting down in 4th place. But to be fair they are only 1 point out of second. They are once again a very strong side. They are first in the league with 35 goals (6 ahead of second best Leicester) and first in the league in goal differential. So if they are leading those categories how do they find themselves down in 4th place? The short answer is that in years past when they struggled they usually found a way to at least get a draw. This season, thus far anyway, they have ended up losing instead of getting the result. In fact they only lost 4 matches all of last season but have dropped 3 already this year. But City fans don’t have much to really worry about. They are still an extremely deep and talented club. They still have Sergio Aguero and Raheem Sterling, the top goal scoring duo in the EPL. They still have Kevin De Bruyne the top playmaker in the leauge. De Bruyne already has 9 assists, 5 more than second best in the league. They still have Ederson in the nets who is tied for first in the league with 5 clean sheets.  Oh and then toss in Bernardo and David Silva. Did I mention they are a really deep side?

The Solid Clubs

As is typical in the EPL most seasons, there tend to be a fairly large bunch of sides that are solid clubs that can provide a difficult match for anybody on a given day. They have the talent to pose problems for their opponents but probably don’t have quite enough talent or depth to challenge for a top four finish over a long season. And thus far this season I’d put a dozen clubs in this mix. Ranging from surprising Sheffield United sitting in the 5th spot down to #16 West Ham United. These 12 clubs are separated by a mere 4 points so expect to see lots of movement in this group as the season progresses. Interesting to note that essentially none of these teams have a winning record at this point in the season.

Sheffield United – A surprise to many having just being promoted this season after their second place finish in the English Championship League last season relying mostly on a stout defense. That recipe has continued to work for the Blades this year with a league second best 9 goals allowed. With the sound goalkeeping of youngster Dean Henderson they could continue to stay well up in the table this season. The downside, however, is their attack. Having only scored 13 times in their first 11 matches. The minimal goal scoring compared to goals allowed doesn’t leave them much margin for error. Likely that forward Lys Mousset and midfielder John Lundstram are going to have to find ways to be more productive or they’ll slip down the table.

Arsenal – The Gunners currently sit in 6th place and are one of only two teams in the top 10 with a negative goal differential. They have a fine goal scorer in Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang who has found the back of the next 8 times thus far. But their next highest production has come from Alexandre Lacazette and David Ruiz with 2 each. Going to have to find more goal scoring or defenses will just shadow Augameyang and shut them down. Midfielder Matteo Guendouzi is in the league top 10 in passes and he can make things happen if given some space.

Manchester United – The Red Devils came into the season with the stated purpose of improving their defense. For the last several years they have scored plenty but have had far too many lapses in the back ending up with less than desirable results. So far this season they have surely improved in the back with Aaron Wan-Bissaka tied for second in tackles. That is the type of play they needed. So that’s the good news. The downside is that they aren’t scoring the number of goals they are accustomed to. Marcus Rashford, Anthony Martial, and Daniel James have combined for 12 goals and 8 assists. Expect that trio to pick up the scoring as they get further into the season and used to playing with each other. And they have youth on their side. Martial is the oldest of the 3 at just 23.

Wolverhampton Wanderers – An interesting side they are. They tend to play tight compact soccer and satisfied with a draw. Then look to capitalize on opponents mistakes to see if they can sneak in a winner. They have 7 draws thus far, 2 more than any other club in the league.  A roster filled with solid albeit unknown players by and large. Will be interesting to see if the Wolves can continue this style and stay in the upper half of this group.

Bournemouth – A 50-50 team across the board. Thus far they have an even sheet across the table.  4 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses while having scored 15 times and allowing 15 goals. Nothing they do really well or poorly. They just play decent soccer in all phases. Likely that keeps them in the middle of this group but unlikely they can make any real move up.

Burnley – The other club in the top 10 with a minus goal differential. The Clarets haven’t been poor on defense nor in the attack but also not good enough to maintain a top 10 finish. Just need to tighten up their defense a bit and find a little more in the attack if they want to stay up there. Ashley Barnes and Chris Wood have combined for 54 shots but only netted 10 of them. Improving their accuracy would help the club immensely.

Brighton Hove Albion/Crystal Palace/Newcastle United – Lumping these three together for simplicity sakes. Not much differentiates these three clubs. All three have identical 4-3-5 records. And none of them are particularly strong defensively. The one difference is that BHA has shown a bit more in the attack. As the season wears on that could be the discriminator between these three.

Tottenham Hotspurs – Perhaps the biggest surprise club thus far and not in a good way. The Spurs are currently mired down in 14th place albeit only 3 points out of 5th place. They have been an enigma thus far. They are the only club in the bottom 10 with a plus goal differential. And they have loads of talent when you see a roster with names like Harry Kane, Heung-Min Son, Hugo Lloris, and Christian Eriksen. The good news for Spurs fans is that they aren’t that far out of the standings that they can’t make a move plus they currently sit 2nd in their group in the Champions League. But and its a big but. That clearly isn’t good enough for their ownership and the have just fired their manager Mauricio Pochettino AND his entire coaching staff. Less than 12 hours later they have hired Jose Mourinho as his repalcement. Strange is all I can say. The same Mourinho who was fired from Manchester United less than 12 months ago. Down the road the Spurs should move up the table. They are too talented and deep to finish outside the top 10. The question will be is it because of or in spite of their new manager?

Everton/West Ham/Aston Villa – The bottom 3 of the group and likely to stay relatively down there. Although Aston Villa is more likely to fall down to the relegation zone that they are to make any move up. The bottom line is that they just allow too many goals to have productive seasons. They have allowed 18, 20, and 20 goals respectively which is bottom 3 for teams not in the relegation zone. The bright side is that they can score on occasion which always makes for an interesting match on any given day.

The Relegation Zone

The dreaded relegation zone. The place you hate to finish. Moving down from the prestige (and money) of the EPL to the Championship. But the 3 team currently down there are likely to finish there. But don’t overlook these kinds of teams as they having nothing to lose so to speak and that makes them dangerous opponents. At the end of the day they don’t have the talent to compete with the established clubs IF the established clubs show up to play.

Watford, Southampton and Norwich City make up the bottom 3. They have combined for a record of 5-8-23. Is it fair to lump them all together? Maybe or maybe not. But the bottom line is that they are just not good soccer teams. At least not yet. Lets make a few comparisons. Outside this group the worst goal differential in the league is minus 7. These three teams sit at minus 15, minus 18, and minus 17. That’s bad. On the other end of the field they sit at 8, 11, and 11 goals scored. Good for last, and tied for 18th in the league. So they defend poorly and they don’t score. A bad combination.

But as I said earlier don’t go to sleep on them. You still have to play the game. Ask Manchester City about their September 14th match against Norwich City when they lost 3-2. The Norwich City club that was newly promoted and sitting at 1-0-3. So yes, you have to come to play or even the worst team in the league, a team likely to get relegated after just gaining a promotion, will surprise you (see picture above!)

So that’s how things currently sit and how they look moving forward. Remember though a lot can change the rest of the way. Especially in January during the FIFA transfer window. How teams approach, buying, selling, or standing pat can make a huge impact on the last half of the season.