Comparing The O’s To The AL Playoff Teams

All O’s fans want to see a Machado extension, but in my opinion the primary* concern between now and the three days after the World Series (while the O’s have exclusive negotiating rights) is making a run at extending Davis.

If it becomes clear to Duquette and Showalter that there is no chance for a Davis extension, then the O’s leadership has to figure out a plan for the rest of the off-season.

*The other thing that should immediately happen is addressing the coaching staff, and letting Buck have that comprised of who he wants.

As we said previously, getting this information now about Duquette and Showalter being officially back for ’16, is something we look at as good news.

Now there is no uncertainty. No spending the next X amount of time interviewing GM prospects, and waiting for that to become official. Waiting for that new hire to bring on their own new hires.  Immediately the leadership can focus on going over the roster, the minors, free agency, etc., and covering out a plan to move forward.

Going back to the topic of Davis, I (like most others) think the chances of an extension are minimal. I can picture the O’s making an offer as substantial as 5 years $100M. What I can not picture, is the O’s ultimately doing what is necessary to keep him. That would surprise me. I also expect that Davis will want to test the market now that Free Agency is right in-front of him.

I think the O’s should be prepared to make their best effort in these next few weeks. They know what they are comfortable doing. If I were Baltimore’s leadership, I’d present my best offer. If  Davis doesn’t take it, I would not pull the offer, but Duquette and Showalter can mentally go with the idea that he is ‘officially’ gone when Free Agency begins, and know that they will have to move forward with replacing his production. 

MASN’s Roch Kubatko had a few other interesting tidbits today:

@masnRoch: Duquette said top priority is improving pitching. Need No 1 starter. Says have funds #orioles

@masnRoch: Duquette on relationship with Buck: “it’s healthy when you have different styles of leadership.” #orioles

@masnRoch: Duquette said Machado extension not back burner but more “urgent” things to do this offseason. Glad to hear Machado open to it.

Here is a listing (per MLB Trade Rumors) of the best Free Agents available on the market this Winter. We’ve written previously on the idea that if Davis is not back, the best chance to try and replace some of his production in the lineup would be going after one of the four best OF’s – Jason Heyward, Justin Upton, Yoenis Cespedes, and Alex Gordon. We’ve also stated our opinion of that group, that only Upton represents a plausible signing for Baltimore.

It’s not a surprise that Duquette wants to improve the pitching, or that he wants a #1 starter.  A look at the basic pitching numbers above (ERA, QS, WHIP, Batting Average Against) for the AL Playoff teams, shows how the 2015 O’s were lacking in comparison.

Looking toward ’16, Gausman taking a leap forward is the only internal option that has a chance to be an ‘ACE’ next year.  Tillman, if he is closer to his 2012-14 levels, would obviously be a big improvement over the 2015 Tillman; but still would not be a #1.  Similarly Gonzalez at his previous levels would represent an upgrade over 2015 Gonzalez; but certainly wouldn’t be a #1.

Jimenez had a far better 2015 than 2014, but the best case scenario for Jimenez’s 2016 is that he remains an expensive back-of-the-rotation starter.

Wright and Wilson are guys that really don’t want in the rotation, and frankly I’d rather not rely on as 6th and 7th options.

My thought for sometime has been that with the expectation that Chen will be pitching elsewhere in ’16, the O’s will have be looking to replace his 190 innings. Chen certainly wasn’t an ACE this year, but he was clearly the O’s best starter. My expectation has been that if Chen does leave, the O’s will be looking to fill his spot with the best veteran they can find on a 1 or 2 year deal, 3 at the max. Guys like Doug Fister, Scott Kazmir. Jeff Samardzija if they were lucky, and a 1 year make good contract was an available option.

Let’s say that the O’s signed Kazmir to replace Chen. That would still have the O’s looking for the ACE Duquette identified as a need in the quote above. I don’t see how David Price, or Zack Greinke have any plausible chance of being Baltimore Orioles in ’16. Johnny Cueto, and Jordan Zimmermann also seem unrealistic to me, and I’m not sure I’d like to see the O’s make the investment needed for either anyway. 

So where is this #1 starter coming from?  Going to trade for somebody? Always hard to obtain an ACE, but probably even more difficult currently with Baltimore’s limited system.

If Baltimore had a system capable of going all in on a trade (or if Bundy and Harvey were in position to be traded – value wise), I’d put all the chips on the table for Oakland’s Sonny Gray. On our Message Board, I recently jokingly asked how many millions would the O’s have to add to a package of Reyes, Sisco, Wright, Walker, and Wilson? In a vacuum, that 5 for 1 is not a not a terrible offer. In reality Oakland would figure to get much better offers elsewhere. Someone might point out that the A’s didn’t get much more for Donaldson last year, but the difference is that Gray is much cheaper than Donadlson was. While that pay gap between Donaldson and Gray will narrow as Gray hits arbitration, Gray’s minimal current salary (plus his production) makes him extremely valuable.

So, I’m interested to see how the O’s attempt to obtain the ACE they desire.

I do agree with Duquette that differing opinions between him and Showalter doesn’t represent an issue. Do agree that it can be healthy. You can have different opinions on team construction. What’s important is for Duquette and Showalter to find common ground, and figure out a path they both agree to move forward with. Also to avoid further articles to be appearing Nationally (Nick Cafardo, Boston Globe / Ken Rosenthal, FOX Sports) which point to disconnect between the two. Those leaks came from somewhere.

As far as Machado goes, there aren’t many more pressing issues vs. pursuing a long-term extension for the 3rd baseman. I’m sure the O’s wish they would have been more aggressive with this after 2012, or sometime during ’13 when the price tag would have been significantly less. You would like to hope the O’s could walk and chew gum at the same time.  Work on a Davis extension, and Manny at the same time; but history tell us that is not the strong suit for Baltimore’s baseball leadership during the Angelos’ Ownership years. So, if you can not do multiple things at once, you prioritize things and work your way down that list. Credit to the O’s for quickly addressing Duquette, and making it known that he would back. Now start working your way down the rest of the list of the many things the O’s have to look at this Winter.