The Big Ten is no longer just the Big Two. Michigan is poised to restore past glory and join the pantheon of Ohio State and Michigan State as teams with legitimate Playoff hopes. But overall the league is still top-heavy and geographically tilted East. The league also changes to a 9-game conference schedule and ends games versus FCS schools (although some contractually pre-existing games remain). The question is, can the conference get a team in the playoff for the third time in 3 years, not long after many pundits left their football status for dead?

(You can discuss this on the BSL Board here.)

EAST

Ohio State – Yes, no team among the Big Ten’s top tier suffered more losses to graduation/early departure than the Buckeyes, as only 6 starters return. But I’m not betting against a coach who recruits better than anyone in the nation outside Tuscaloosa, and who won a division title with a backup QB, then proceeded to beat the #13, #1 and #2 teams in the country with a 3rd-string QB. The good news is that aforementioned backup QB, JT Barrett, is among the 6 returnees to lead Urban Meyer’s offense. And I also expect the play-calling should improve over last season (see: Michigan State loss) without the unwieldy 2-headed QB rotation they employed. But I don’t think the Buckeyes can make it through the conference schedule unscathed, which means if they are to return to the Playoff, they really need to win a tough Week 3 game at Oklahoma. Not only could that matchup decide which of the two teams gets in the Playoff, it could determine which Power 5 conference gets left out. Huge stakes.

Michigan – I admit, I was slow to drink the Harbaugh Kool-Aid last season, and I’m going (slightly) against the grain once more by not picking the Wolverines to claim the East title. Despite a very impressive 10-3 season last year the Wolverines still could not beat their main rivals, Ohio State and Michigan State, their 7th loss in the last 8 tries vs each. Their defense will still be as stingy as last season despite the loss of DJ Durkin, thanks in large part to the return of Mr Everything Jabrill Peppers, and new DC Don Brown is no slouch. But graduate transfer QB Jake Rudock is gone and I’m not sold on the potential replacements….of course, I wasn’t sold on Rudock going in to last season and he was plenty serviceable. The non-conference schedule is friendly and should set up a good start. But 3 of Michigan’s final 5 games are on the road, at Michigan State, Iowa and Ohio State. That’s rough. I do think they will head to Columbus for a winner-take-all in the East Division, but I think the Buckeyes will prevail.

Michigan State – How good is Mark Dantonio? At a basketball school sharing a state with the winningest college football program ever, the Spartans have finished no lower than #6 in the polls three straight seasons. In the 45 years prior to that they never did it once….not even under Nick Saban. This year shapes up to be a reloading season, but for what Dantonio has built even that shouldn’t se Sparty slip too far. The defense should be strong where it really counts, up the middle, led by DT Malik McDowell and MLB Riley Bullough. But their seemingly endless line of lockdown CBs might have dried up, which could hurt their appetite for the aggressiveness we’ve seen in the past. Of even greater concern are the losses on offense, starting with QB Connor Cook, his favorite target WR Aaron Burbridge, and two 1st Team All-Big Ten linemen in LT Jack Conklin and C Jack Allen. A break in the conference schedule, both Michigan and OSU visit East Lansing, might not be enough, and an early OOC loss could come in Week 2 at Notre Dame. But a respectable 10-win season is still within reach for Dantonio and Co.

Penn State – Despite two (barely) winning seasons under NCAA sanctions, James Franklin is likely feeling some heat in Happy Valley. A disappointing offense (for a coach with an offensive background), the failure to develop and harness the talents of early-departee QB Christian Hackenberg, and the abrupt offseason departure of respected DC Bob Shoop (architect of the biggest bright spot on the team) is probably causing some restless nights among the faithful. There’s a new OC in Joe Moorhead, and he would be wise to employ a run-heavy offense, with dual-threat QB Trace McSorely likely replacing Hackenberg, a loaded backfield featuring All-Conference candidate Saquon Barkley, and an O-line that has been dreadful in pass protection. Defensively, the Lions lost the entire starting front of a defense that was #1 in the country in adjusted sack rate. Luckily they had a deep rotation that does return nearly everyone else. There are plenty of returning starters and experienced players in what was a very good LB-corps and secondary. The plethora of talent should be enough to forget Bob Shoop. The schedule isn’t easy, but there should be 8, maybe even 9 wins there if they can avoid serious injuries and bad luck. That should be enough to secure Franklin’s return in 2017.

Indiana – If you love lots of offense, Indiana should once again be the team to watch in the Big Ten. Despite the loss of QB Nate Sudfeld, Kevin Wilson’s team should score a ton of points, and surrender a ton of points. It’s not every year that a team can lose a 1,200 yard rusher (Jordan Howard) and still return a 1,000 rusher (Devine Redding), not to mention their top 4 receivers from 2015. That should help new QB Zander Diamont, who actually started 6 games in place of Sudfeld in 2014, and also filled in reasonably well for him against Ohio State last season, so he has experience. The OL loses All-American LT Jason Spriggs, but returns another All -American in RG Dan Feeney, plus two other starters. As for the defense, well, it’s another reboot for a group that has never finished higher than #91 in the country in S&P+ during Wilson’s 5-year tenure. This time it’s former USF DC Tom Allen’s job to see if they can even be competent. He’ll have to coach up an almost entirely new DL, but both the LB and secondary return almost entirely intact. The schedule is manageable enough that if they beat the teams they should beat Indiana can go bowling in back-to-back seasons for the first time since 1990-91, but there is little room for error if they don’t.

Maryland – There is probably nothing I can say about the Terps that my BSL colleagues haven’t already done a great job of breaking down in detail. My prediction of their conference finish is somewhat a tempering of expectations. I don’t think it is out of the question that they could challenge Indiana or even Penn State for a higher finish. I also think that with a cushy non-conference schedule a bowl game is certainly within reach. But despite what looks like a very bright future, with promising coaches finally in place and first-class training facilities on the way, the present still consists of a roster that only won 3 games last season. Coaches and schemes make a bigger difference in football, and particularly college football, than in other sports. But at the end of the day, players and talent are still what wins games. DJ Durkin has already proven to me he can recruit better talent than Maryland has traditionally landed, without even one signing class of his very own under his belt yet. I’m excited.

Rutgers – The best thing I can say about Rutgers is the seemingly non-stop scandals emerging from their athletic department, including the football program, might finally be over. And new Head Coach Chris Ash, formerly DC at Ohio St, has injected a similar level energy into the program and fan base as DJ Durkin at Maryland. The Scarlet Knights could push Maryland or Indiana to avoid the Big Ten East basement. They should be pretty solid at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. But they have a glaring lack of playmakers on offense, especially with WR Leonte Caroo gone. There are some athletes on the roster, but someone has to step up. Defensively, behind a solid DL is a linebacking corps that is just okay, and probably greatly helped by the fact the line eats up a lot of blockers, and a secondary that was pretty bad. Maybe Chris Ash and DC Jay Niemann can get more out of that group, or maybe they will have to wait until they can recruit a while new one. The schedule isn’t terribly friendly, in addition to the East they open the season in Seattle against Washington, and get Iowa from the Big Ten West. A bowl appearance would be a resounding success.

WEST

Nebraska – On the surface, Mike Riley’s 6-7 debut season might have Husker fans finally admitting that Bo Pelini’s 9 wins a year really were the best they could expect. But below the surface the team wasn’t as dismal as the results may have looked. The Huskers were snake-bit (albeit mostly self-inflicted) late in games. Of course they won a game they should have lost thanks to an official’s blunder too, but their luck was far more on the bad side than the good. The good news there is that rather than a lack of talent they are just have to be one smart play away from winning instead of one dumb play away from losing. They return a lot of players on both sides of the ball, though do have significant replacements to make on both lines. Still, this is a group that on paper matches up very favorably with Iowa. They just need to discover Iowa’s penchant for making the plays that win games and not the plays that lose them. Their schedule is a bit tough in the West, they have to travel to Iowa, Wisconsin and Northwestern. They also travel to Ohio State, but their other East opponents are Indiana and Maryland. The OOC schedule features only Oregon, in Lincoln, that should be a challenge. 

Iowa – As mentioned above, but for similarly talented rosters the Hawkeyes were the opposite of Nebraska….they won some close games by making big plays late. The only play they didn’t make was a 4th-and-goal line stand against Michigan State that would have sent them to the Playoff. Now comes the task of following up a fantastic season amid higher expectations, and perhaps no team consistently performs to the opposite of preseason expectations than Iowa under Kirk Ferentz. Add to the fact that winning a lot of tight games late is usually not sustainable and you have a recipe for regression. Defensively the Hawkeyes should be very good again. They return 9 starters including All-Conference DB, and returner, Desmond King. The secondary does lack significant experience in the 2-deep though. Offensively they return QB CJ Beathard, but have other holes to fill, particularly All-American RG Jordan Walsh and All-Conference C Austin Blythe. Their schedule is quite favorable, with all their toughest games at home, including Michigan as the only Big Three of the East team they face, and FCS power North Dakota St likely the toughest OOC foe. Still, I’m going with history and math, and betting they come up short of another West title.

Wisconsin – As easy as Iowa’s schedule is, the Badgers’ is brutal. It starts with LSU at Lambeau Field. After two easy OOC games they play @Michigan St, @Michigan, Ohio St, @Iowa, Nebraska, in succession. It’s not out of the realm of possibility Wisconsin could start the season 2-6, 0-5 in conference. The irony here is that the Badgers should be a better team than the one that went 10-3 last season, but probably won’t have the wins to show for it. Wisconsin’s 2015 offense was well out of character for them, they ran the ball poorly and had neither the personnel nor scheme to rely that heavily on the pass. That should change this season with the return from injury of Cory Clement, who was supposed to help ease the loss of Melvin Gordon last season. 4 of 5 OL starters also return. The question mark will be who replaces the competent, if unspectacular, Joel Stave at QB, who was seemingly under center in the Cheese State longer than Brett Favre. On the other side of the ball DC Dave Aranda departed for LSU and is replaced by Justin Wilcox who led some great defenses at Boise State the previous decade, but not so much the previous two seasons at USC. The DL should be very good, but the secondary has 3 starters to replace. It might not matter with their schedule though.

Minnesota – Like Nebraska, Minnesota was a bowl team last year only because the inevitable Bowlpocalypse finally happened (too many games, not enough eligible teams) and they had a high enough Academic Performance Rating for an exemption. They also dealt with the mid-season resignation of Jerry Kill due to health issues, and then gave the permanent job to interim, and Kill assistant, Tracy Claeys. QB Mitch Lender returns, and for reasons unbeknownst to me Todd McShay touts him as a potential 1st Round pick next year. He’ll need to significantly improve his accuracy and decision-making this season to come near that, and will have to rely on a very inexperienced OL to give him time. Defensively the front seven returns largely intact, but must take advantage of that experience to improve against the run. Meanwhile the secondary suffered some losses, but there was a lot of talent and depth there that they should still be among the better units in the conference. Claeys doesn’t appear to have much of a higher ceiling than what his predecessor accomplished. But then, this is Minnesota, so just consistently getting to a bowl game will keep you employed, at least for a while. The Gophers have a good chance to accomplish that this season, this time the old-fashioned way, by winning 6 or more. The schedule is very friendly, with 3 likely OOC wins, East foes Maryland and Rutgers, and two West basement dwellers in Illinois and Purdue.

Northwestern – The Wildcats won a school-record 10 games last season, seemingly with smoke and mirrors. Perhaps no team is more poised for Pythagorean-induced regression next season than Northwestern, even more than Iowa. Their defense was excellent last season, #5 nationally in S&P+ and #12 in PPG allowed. But their offense….oh the offense. #111 in S&P+, #115 in points scored. They caught Stanford at the right moment, in the season opener, when the Cardinal forgot to check the calendar and realize the season had begun and scored just a lackluster 6 points. They also won games against Duke and Penn State when the numbers said their win percentage was just 30 and 43 percent, respectively. I know the scoreboard is all that matters and I’m throwing out advanced numbers, but hey, this is Northwestern we’re talking about. But on to this season. The defense should be among the nation’s best again. And their running game should be solid. But Clayton Thorson must improve upon a terrible freshman season for Pat Fitzgerald & Co. to avoid a big dropoff in wins. The schedule does feature 3 winnable OOC games, but road games vs East foes Michigan State and Ohio State more than make up for that. 7-5 seems realistic to me.

Illinois – The Illini are one of those programs that just never seems to consistently perform up to its potential. They are the flagship school in a heavily populated state and play in a conference that funnels them plenty of cash to build good facilities and hire good coaches. But they’ve spent most of this century, and before that too, closer to the basement than the top of the conference. More recently, consistency in the coaching staff has only made things harder. Enter Lovie Smith, the one time Super Bowl coach who will try to do his best impersonation of Pete Carroll, circa early 2000s. Smith inherits a team coming off a season in which they didn’t perform too badly, going 5-7 while winning all the games you would expect them to, plus one you wouldn’t expect. But they lack fire power on offense, and last year’s biggest strength, the secondary, lost three starters. The schedule is a bit tougher this year too, with an OOC game against North Carolina and they face the two Michigan teams from the East. 4 wins looks probable.

Purdue – Darrell Hazell, who has won only 6 games in three seasons at Purdue, probably needs that many this season to save his job. It’s not likely happening. While the Boilermakers do return a team that is long on experienced starters, the talent and depth simply don’t appear to be there. Hazell was a Jim Tressel disciple at Ohio State which is no doubt what made him seem appealing in West Lafayette. But what works in Columbus isn’t going to work in West Lafayette, where facilities, recruiting advantages, and administrative support are far, far less. So like Steve Spurrier once said, if you can’t do something better than your opponents, do something different. To that effect, Hazell does have two new coordinators. The problem? The new OC was Purdue’s TE coach last season, Terry Malone. So much for different. The DC? He was coaching high school last year (Ross Els)….though Els was the LB coach under Bo Pelini at Nebraska in the 4 years before that. Looking at Purdue’s schedule, I see only half the wins Hazell will need to be back in 2017.

Also in this Series:

College Football 2016 – The State of The Game

ACC Preview

Big 12 Preview

Up Next: Pac 12

 

Mike Lowe
Mike Lowe

College Football Analyst

Mike is a Baltimore native living in Portland, OR since 2007. He currently runs his own business specializing in video production and online marketing. Prior to that he was a legal technology consultant, worked for 9 years at Johns Hopkins University and served 6 years in the Air Force. He also enjoys travel, food, beer, and is a volunteer at the Oregon Humane Society.

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