When College Football starts next Month, many Conferences will have new looks. Colorado and Utah will be spending their first season in the Pac 12. Nebraska will be starting their initial campaign in the Big Ten. Boise State leaves the WAC for the Mountain West, as do Fresno State and Nevada. (Hawaii will join them next year.) BYU has gone independent. Texas Christian will join the Big East a year from now. All of these moves of Conference affiliation is based on football dollars. There are many who believe these moves are only the beginning of a larger transition across the college landscape. Wondering how the University of Maryland may one day be impacted, Baltimore Sports and Life reached out to a couple of National Analysts for their thoughts:

Steven Lassan, Athlon
http://www.athlonsports.com/blogs/steven-lassan
http://twitter.com/#!/AthlonSteven

&
Mike Huguenin, Yahoo Sports / Rivals.com
http://sports.yahoo.co/top/expertsarchive?author=Mike+Huguenin

Baltimore Sports and Life: “The University of Texas spoke with Big 12 Athletic Directors and Presidents this past week to alleviate some concerns about the impending launch of the Longhorn Network. The Texas A&M Regents apparently discussed the network in a closed-door meeting 7/21, and there are corresponding rumors of the Aggies considering leaving the Big 12 to join the SEC. As you project out 5 years from now, do you forecast 4 Major Super Conferences (Pac-16, SEC, Big Ten, and a merged ACC/Big East)?”

Lassan: “I think it’s a strong possibility, but I’m going to say no. The Longhorn Network is a concern to the other nine teams in the Big 12, but moving to the SEC doesn’t really help Oklahoma or Texas A&M. Those two schools will continue to recruit Texas and will face the same battle trying to pull talent from the Longhorns. If Texas was to go Independent, then we could see the start of16-team super conferences.”

Huguenin: “Five years from now? No. Eventually, I think there will be some sort of “super conference” alignment, but I don’t think it will be nearly that soon.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “Last year the ACC signed a 12 year $1.86B deal with ESPN for rights to Basketball and Football through the 2022-23 seasons. That equates to $11.9M per year for each member school. Conversely the Pac-12 will bring in $21M per University, with the Big Ten ($18.3M), and the SEC schools ($17.1) also considerably above the ACC. The Washington Post (http://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/a-closer-look-into-the-finances-of-marylands-athletic-department/2011/07/20/gIQAvsHmQI_story.html) reported this week the financial issues that new University of Maryland President Dr. Loh and Athletic Director Kevin Anderson are dealing with. Under previous Athletic Director Debbie Yow, Maryland stated publicly that they would not leave the ACC. If the Big Ten were to extend an invitation to Maryland join their conference, is there any reason (even when factoring in additional travel costs) to believe it would not be more profitable for the Terps vs. staying in the ACC?”

Lassan: “I think Maryland would at least have to listen to any Big Ten offer. The travel costs could be an issue, but those would be offset by a better television contract. The Big Ten Network has been a huge success and has helped drive more revenue to schools since its creation. Considering the financial issues that Maryland has, if the Big Ten can boost the money coming into the school, it would be worth at least discussing. However, Maryland would be joining a tougher football conference and outside of Penn State, has no natural rivalries with any of the schools in the Big Ten.”

Huguenin: “College athletics is all about the money, and I think Maryland would listen intently if the Big Ten came calling. The financial aspect would be big. It’s not a good geographic fit, but geography doesn’t matter nearly as much anymore. It would be a tough decision, and I think a lot of long-time Terps fans would bemoan the possibility of losing a lot of long-time rivals.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “I could see the Big Ten being interested in Maryland because the Conference would gain entrance into the Washington / Baltimore media markets, add a strong academic school, and hurt the ACC. Do you agree with that, or do you think Maryland would not make sense from the perspective of the Big Ten?”

Lassan: “I agree with that statement. Getting into big media markets will only help the Big Ten drive more revenue into its television network and expand its overall reach and power of the conference. Maryland would also be a good fit academically. If Maryland was to join the Big Ten, it would be a strange fit. Playing Indiana and Minnesota just doesn’t seem like much of a draw for Terrapin fans. The ACC is a better fit geographically, and also for competitive reasons. I think the Big Ten would be interested in Maryland if it decided to expand. I’m just not sure Maryland would accept an invitation.”

Huguenin: “TV markets drive the expansion bus, and the Baltimore/DC market would be a nice “prize” for the Big Ten. I don’t necessarily think hurting the ACC has anything to do with it. The question: Would anyone in Baltimore/DC be interested in, say, Illinois-Indiana in any sport as the Big Ten game of the week. I think the Big East is going to find that out about TCU next season. Folks in Dallas-Fort Worth, I’m betting, couldn’t care less about Cincinnati playing UConn. If it involves TCU, they “could” care (and it’s not as if TCU is the No. 1 college team in that market. Texas, A&M and Oklahoma far outpace TCU.) If it’s not TCU, they won’t care. And I think that’s the danger the Big Ten could face if it brings in a Maryland or any school not truly in its geographic footprint.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “For the ACC to avoid being poached by other Conferences, do they need to be aggressively pursuing expansion now? If the ACC pursues expansion, are the most realistic options Rutgers, Syracuse, Pittsburgh, Connecticut, South Florida, and West Virginia? Could you see a Kentucky leaving the SEC? If Notre Dame ever goes to a Conference, is it the Big Ten or nothing?”

Lassan: “I think the ACC is in pretty good shape right now. Maryland or Georgia Tech could be a future target of Big Ten expansion and the same could be said of Clemson, Florida State or Miami for the SEC. However, the ACC appears to be in good position with its 12 teams. If the ACC decided to expand, I think West Virginia would be target No. 1 and Syracuse or Rutgers just behind. I don’t see Kentucky leaving the SEC. Even though they may struggle to contend for a title in football, the Wildcats are one of the conference’s best basketball schools and joined the SEC in 1933. The best fit for Notre Dame is the Big Ten, but the Big East or Big 12 could be a possibility. I’d be very surprised if the Irish ever joined a conference.”

Huguenin: “I don’t think any school leaves the SEC; that league is printing money. I don’t think Notre Dame would join the ACC; if they’re going to join a league for football, I think the only choice for the Fighting Irish is the Big Ten. I’m not sure there’s a “natural” fit for the ACC. In terms of TV markets, Rutgers makes the most sense.  From a geographic standpoint – again, though, that’s not the overriding concern any more – WVU makes the most sense. There could be some really good rivalries if WVU joined the league; the Mountaineers still could play Pitt in non-conference games and add Virginia, Virginia Tech and Maryland on an annual basis.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “Based on the expansion / conference shifting you believe could happen; what is the ultimate worst case scenario for Maryland?”

Lassan: “I think Maryland is in pretty good shape in terms of any future conference realignment. However, if the SEC decided to expand to 16 teams, some of the ACC may leave – Florida State, Miami or Clemson. If the conference is poached by the SEC, the ACC would have to turn to the Big East for its new teams. Although West Virginia, Pittsburgh and South Florida would be solid additions to the ACC in this scenario, it’s a step down from its current setup.”

Huguenin: “I don’t think Maryland really is in any trouble, long-term. If there ever is the move to “super conferences,” the Terps are in.”

Chris Stoner
Chris Stoner

Owner

Chris Stoner founded Baltimore Sports and Life in 2009. He has appeared as a radio guest with 1090 WBAL, 105.7 The Fan, CBS 1300, Q1370, WOYK 1350, WKAV 1400, and WNST 1570. He has also been interviewed by The Baltimore Sun, Baltimore Business Journal, and PressBox (TV). As Owner, his responsibilities include serving as the Managing Editor, Publicist, & Sales Director.

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