Four games into the 2013 season, no player has been as hot as Chris Davis, the lovable first-baseman of the Baltimore Orioles. Through 3 games, Chris Davis had produced .8 WAR, which is pretty remarkable when you really think about it. The only player in the same realm as him so far? Yu Darvish, of the 8.2 perfect innings & 14 strikeouts against the Astros earlier this week. By now, we should all know about the factoid of the day: Davis became just the fourth player ever to hit home runs in each of his first four games in a season. No doubt that is a significant achievement, but it doesn’t give the full perspective on his dominance thus far.
Expect to see Davis at first base for the foreseeable future.
Today against the Minnesota Twins, Chris Davis hit for a triple slash of .500/.400/1.250 while clubbing a Grand Slam and 5 RBIs. For those of you keeping score at home, that adds up to a wOBA of .611 and a wRC+ of 308.
The funny thing is, those stats brought down his season totals which currently sit at: .600/.611/1.600 with a wOBA of .871 and a wRC+ of 486. You know you’re pretty hot at the plate when you hit a grand slam, drive in 5 runs, and see your statline decline.
There’s more to it than just the raw numbers though. Davis has had 4 hits that have put the O’s ahead thus far this season. Again, that’s 1 per game. The only player Davis has drove in more than himself (4)? Adam Jones, who has scored as a result of Davis’ hits 6 times already this season. He’s averaging almost an RBI (16) per Plate Appearance (18) at this point in the year.
Is this the new Chris Davis? Let’s not kid ourselves. I think it’s safe to say that nobody will ever have 500+ RBIs in a season, something that Davis is currently on track to do. A reality check, is certainly in order, but how excited can we get? Tucker’s season preview for Davis is a good start, and certainly worth re-reading given his torrid start. There is something happening though, that if I were an opposing pitcher, I’d be pretty concerned about.
Jack Moore wrote a piece for fangraphs that details an interesting aspect of Davis’ start in Tampa Bay. Davis has taken pitches that are typically located in an area of weakness, low and away, and driven them out of the park. As Moore points out, Davis has crushed pitches that are low and away, taking away the pitcher’s safest zone when attacking him. The Grand Slam today by Davis was another such hit, going opposite way to give the O’s the lead. The slow motion replay at about 45 seconds in to the video linked above shows just how well Davis is able to drive the ball the opposite way.
Chris Davis holding a chimp…
If you were to believe the comments on Moore’s piece, this is a result of PED’s, the primary piece of evidence being this image of Davis having large muscles while holding a chimpanzee (I’m not kidding).
The reality is much simpler in actuality. I believe that players of Davis’ ‘type’, guys with high strikeout rates, don’t get a fair shot in their first few years unless they are a can’t-miss type of prospect. Davis struggled through injuries and strikeouts during his first few years in Texas, never earning proper playing time. It is my belief that these types of players take longer to adjust to MLB pitching because of their all-or-nothing approach.
Players like Davis, Jose Bautista, Nelson Cruz, Michael Morse, and Todd Frazier are just a few examples of players who have struggled early in their careers. Many of these players made some adjustments, but also finally got prolonged playing time that allowed them to adjust their approach while playing at the highest level. Some of these players had earned the “4A Player” label years before ever contributing in a significant way at the MLB level.
When the O’s picked up Davis in a trade with Texas, I was excited because I knew he’d get regular playing time without any better options at first base or DH. I saw 40 HR potential in Davis, as he has some of the most impressive raw power in MLB. Those homeruns would undoubtedly come with a lot of strikeouts, but Oriole fans had already come to terms with that having cheered for Mark Reynolds. Davis did strike out 169 times last season, but also managed to hit 33 home runs over the course of the season. This season I fully expect Davis to approach, if not break, that 40 Home Run barrier, simply because he’s finally getting a chance to play every day, not having to worry about if he’ll be benched or sent down after one bad performance. I’ve long been an advocate of regular playing time for fringe guys if they have the potential to improve.
I don’t know how long this hot streak will last, though I hope it continues through the rest of the month as the O’s will need all the help they can get in the beginning of the season. What I do know is that Davis will invariably cool off, but it doesn’t mean that he won’t be a big bat at the heart of the order for years to come. He has always had that potential, and is finally getting a real opportunity to realize it.
Jeff was the owner of the Orioles blog Warehouse Worthy, which focused on making advanced statistics a part of the conversation for the average fan. Outside of baseball, Jeff is a graduate of Loyola University where he received his Bachelor’s and Master’s in Business Administration. The Maryland native currently works for an Advertising Agency in downtown Baltimore. Previously a contributor to Beyond the Boxscore, he joined Baseball Prospectus in September 2014. You can reach him at jeff.long@baltimoresportsandlife.com.