We heard for months that the O’s were interested in Victor Martinez, and they offered a legitimate contract to try and obtain him. You do not have to look hard to find many people that disagreed with the O’s decision to offer Martinez 4 years and $48M. Whether you agree with the offer or not, what I like is that the O’s identified a player they wanted, and quickly moved to try and obtain him.

I think the same is going to happen with 3rd baseman Adrian Beltre. Like Martinez, we have heard for months that the O’s are interested. It has been reported in many areas that that Oakland Athletics offered Beltre a 5 year $64M dollar contract. Knowing that, I think appropriate offers for Beltre would be either 4 years at $64, or 5 years between $70-$75M.

There are multiple options available to upgrade SS, and 1st. The options to upgrade 3rd are far more limited. The O’s should take some of the $12M per season they were willing to commit to Martinez, and use it towards Beltre.

If the O’s can obtain Beltre, things can begin to fall into place. The Atlanta Braves declined to offer arbitration to Derek Lee, so he moves to the head of the list of 1st baseman that make sense to pursue.*  As Carlos Pena may be considering returning to Tampa on a one-year deal, he is also a realistic option.

*Adam Dunn belongs at DH, but I’d have no problem with the O’s pursuing him for 1st. I do not see that as something the Orioles will consider. Konereko would probably be my first-choice, but even if the O’s offered 3 yrs at $36M, I would expect him to sign elsewhere.

Let us say that the O’s signed Beltre for 5 years at $75M, Lee for 2 years at $20M, resigned Uehara for 1 year at $5M, and obtained JJ Hardy (2011 contract likely around $5M).  With those moves, we could be looking at a 25 man roster that looked like:

Roberts 2nd, Hardy SS, Markakis RF, Beltre 3rd, Lee 1st, Jones CF, Scott DH, Wieters C, Pie LF

Reimold, Tatum, Andino, 25th man

Matusz, Guthrie, Arrieta, Bergesen, Tillman

Uehara, Gonzalez, Hernandez, Johnson, Berken, Simon or VandenHurk, Patton or 2nd lefty (maybe another FA like Rhodes or Feliciano)

The payroll for that team is in the low 80’s prior to deciding who the 25th man is, or if one of those Free Agent lefty-relievers are obtained.

That team is pretty attractive, but it starts with Beltre. I would not be signing Beltre believing he is going to match the numbers he had in his walk years with the Dodgers or Boston; but believing he would approximate his career averages for the length of the contract and provide superior defense. To me, offering a 5th year for Beltre is a lot more attractive than trading for Arizona’s Mark Reynolds. Reynolds would definitely have the chance to greatly improve the O’s (and do so at a lower dollar cost) but he would bring his own risks, and also cost you something player wise with Arizona.

The O’s identified Martinez and went after him, but missed. As the the O’s have also identified Beltre, it will be interesting to see how they attempt to land this target.

Chris Stoner
Chris Stoner

Owner

Chris Stoner founded Baltimore Sports and Life in 2009. He has appeared as a radio guest with 1090 WBAL, 105.7 The Fan, CBS 1300, Q1370, WOYK 1350, WKAV 1400, and WNST 1570. He has also been interviewed by The Baltimore Sun, Baltimore Business Journal, and PressBox (TV). As Owner, his responsibilities include serving as the Managing Editor, Publicist, & Sales Director.

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