With the Minor League season over, a look at the Baltimore Orioles Top 30 prospects.
(You can discuss this on the BSL Board here.)
#1 Ryan Mountcastle, 3B, Bowie (AA)
Ceiling: 55 (Above-Average Regular) | Risk: High | MLB ETA: 2019
Futures Game selection in 2018 continues to show the offensive upside for an above-average regular’s ceiling. Glovework and arm-strength at 3B are improving, but still could wind up moving down the defensive spectrum.
#2 Yusniel Diaz, OF, Bowie (AA)
Ceiling: 55 (Above-Average Regular) | Risk: High | MLB ETA: 2019
The return for Manny Machado centered around Diaz, who struggled through the end of the season with Bowie after the trade. If he can refine his approach and become less streaky at the plate, the ceiling is a FV 55 above-average regular. Even if that doesn’t happen, the mix of speed, power, and defensive versatility will keep Diaz around the big leagues for a long time.
#3 DL Hall, LHP, Delmarva (A)
Ceiling: 55 (Mid-Rotation Starter) | Risk: High | MLB ETA: 2021
Baltimore’s first-round pick in 2017 had as enthusing a first full pro season as anyone could have asked for. The 19-year-old lefty pitched to a 2.10 ERA across 94.1 innings with Delmarva, striking out 25-percent hitters faced while holding opponents to a .198 average. Hall isn’t as tall as you’d draw up a mid-rotation starter, but his three-pitch mix and command/control could make him an above-average rotation piece.
#4 Austin Hays, OF, Bowie (AA)
Ceiling: 50 (Everyday Player) | Risk: Moderate | MLB ETA: 2018
Hays is coming off a forgettable 2018, having struggled in the early goings before missing time with an ankle injury. He slashed .273/.291/.535 upon returning to Bowie in early August, showing lots of power (six home runs in 103 PAs) but the same over-aggressive approach—especially against soft stuff—that has been his Achilles heel the last two years. I’m confident he can put this year behind him and be a prominent part of Baltimore’s rebuild. He checks the boxes of a guy who is going to play everyday in the big leagues for a long time.
#5 Cedric Mullins, OF, Baltimore (MLB)
Ceiling: 50 (Everyday Player) | Risk: Moderate | MLB ETA: 2018
Switch-hitting outfielder who does a bit of everything. Well-rounded skillset that impacts numerous facets of the game. A 13th round selection in 2015, Mullins rose quickly through the system and has become one of the better homegrown prospects the O’s have developed in some time. Both the player and Baltimore’s scouting/player development staffs deserve a lot of credit for this one.
#6 Keegan Akin, LHP, Bowie (AA)
Ceiling: 50 (Back-Rotation Starter) | Risk: Moderate | MLB ETA: 2019
Video | Report
Akin was the Eastern League’s Pitcher of the Year after a dominant year with Bowie. His success went largely unnoticed by the prospect media, largely because of the finesse profile and pedestrian velocity he showed early in his pro career. Akin’s fastball found a second gear late in the season, touching 95-to-96 mph at best down the stretch without sacrificing the pitchability that made him so successful. The floor is more appealing than Akin’s upside, but he’s a good bet to contribute in the big leagues and is polished enough to get there soon.
#7 Luis Ortiz, RHP, Baltimore (MLB)
Ceiling: 50 (Back-Rotation Starter) | Risk: Moderate | MLB ETA: 2018
Doesn’t have a dominant pitch, but control of three-pitch mix and ability to eat innings could make him a back-rotation starter. Ortiz will get more contact outs than swings and misses, so being able to keep the ball on the ground in Camden Yards will be important.
#8 Grayson Rodriguez, RHP, GCL Orioles (Rk)
Ceiling: 55 (Mid-Rotation Starter) | Risk: Extreme | MLB ETA: 2022
Rodriguez went 11th overall in this past June’s draft, the second straight year scouting director Gary Rajsich has chosen a high school pitcher in the first round. DL Hall (the other high school first-rounder) is looking like a great pick right now, and the way Rodriguez threw this summer in the GCL, he could be on a similar track to Hall by starting his first full pro season with Delmarva. Rodriguez ranks behind some older pitchers on this list because he’s much farther from the big leagues, but he could rocket into the top five with a strong 2019.
#9 Dillon Tate, RHP, Bowie (AA)
Ceiling: 50 (Back-Rotation Starter) | Risk: High | ML B ETA: 2019
Tate was considered a raw flamethrower with electric stuff coming out of college, going 4th overall to Texas in 2015. He has changed as a pitcher since then, toning down his delivery and looking more like a true starter—albeit at the expense of his stuff. His fastball now sits at 92-to-93 mph and touches 95 mph at best. Tate throws more strikes than he used to, but struggled to miss bats with Bowie because he works over the plate. His slider and changeup flash average. Given how difficult it was to move rental players at the deadline, the O’s did well to center the package for Zach Britton around Tate, who has the best-case ceiling of a back-rotation starter and looks like a long-term big leaguer. It’s interesting to think about the stuff he had in college coming back if there’s ever a need in the bullpen.
#10 Zac Lowther, LHP, Frederick (A+)
Ceiling: 50 (Back-Rotation Starter) | Risk: High | MLB ETA: 2020
Finesse lefty with excellent pitching IQ and ability to mix speeds. Dominated between Delmarva and Frederick this year, posting a 2.40 ERA combined with excellent strikeout rates. Lowther doesn’t project to miss as many bats against Major League hitters, but his success this year highlights the pitchability that could allow his fringy stuff to play as a #5 starter. He works in the high-80s and tops out at 91 mph max, but feel for four pitches and the ability to throw strikes at will keeps hitters off balance. If the stuff is too short to turn over lineups, Lowther will be a very tough look for lefties coming out of the ‘pen.
#11 Zach Pop, RHP, Bowie (AA)
Ceiling: 50 (Setup Reliver) | Risk: Moderate | MLB ETA: 2019
Pop was one of the prospects acquired from the Dodgers in the Machado trade. A reliever, he zoomed from Class A to Double-A by season’s end. I’m higher on him than most because I think he could reach the big leagues by the middle of 2019, able to step in quickly as a setup reliever. His power sinker sits in the mid-90s and touches 98 mph at best, and he’s a safe bet to rack up ground balls given his ability to fill the lower parts of the zone with the pitch.
#12 Hunter Harvey, RHP, Bowie (AA)
Ceiling: 50 (Setup Reliever) | Risk: High | MLB ETA: 2019
2018 was basically the same old story for Harvey, who showed plus stuff while struggling with control and injuries. He was shut down with elbow discomfort in June and didn’t pitch the rest of the regular season. The Orioles have added a ton of pitching into the system since they drafted Harvey with the 22nd overall pick in 2013, and while he has been passed by some other arms, the 23-year-old still has upside. It’s increasingly likely he should transition to a relief role, as he has the loud two-pitch mix to take on high-leverage situations and will be less likely to get hurt.
#13 Blaine Knight, RHP, Aberdeen (SS-A)
Ceiling: 50 (Back-Rotation Starter) | Risk: High | MLB ETA: 2021
The O’s drafted Knight 87th overall in this June’s draft as he lead Arkansas to a second place finish in the College World Series. He pitched 10.1 innings for Aberdeen after taking time off to rest given his college workload. His fastball still reached 95 mph at best in his pro debut, and Knight’s off-speed pitches both could be average or better. He will get every chance to develop as a starter, though it will be interesting to see how Knight’s lean frame and high-maintenance delivery hold up over a full pro season.
#14 Brenan Hanifee, RHP, Delmarva (A)
Ceiling: 50 (Back-Rotation Starter) | Risk: High | MLB ETA: 2021
Hanifee is a great mix of projectability and athleticism, throwing consistent strikes from a picturesque delivery. The 20-year-old had an incredible four-percent walk rate in the South Atlantic League, almost working too much over the plate at times. Hanifee shows the makings of stuff that could miss more bats than he currently does, though he’s able to pitch to contact and keep the ball on the ground. His fastball sits in the low-90s with late run, and likely will finish a few ticks firmer as he fills out a 6-foot-5 frame. The slider shows like an average pitch and projects as an effective complement. Likely to start 2019 with High A Frederick, developing a deeper arsenal and improving his third pitch will be key to reaching his ceiling as a back-rotation starter.
#15 Branden Kline, RHP, Frederick (A+)
Ceiling: 50 (Setup Reliever) | Risk: High | MLB ETA: 2019
A hometown product who was raised in Frederick, Kline came back after missing two years with injuries and rocketed to Triple-A Norfolk by season’s end. The athletic righty throws gas out of the ‘pen, frequently touching the high-90s with life that beats barrels up in the zone. He got more feel back for his slider as the year went on, getting more swings and better depth on the pitch by August. Kline will likely reach the big leagues next year, and could even break with the big league club if he performs in Spring Training.
#16 Cody Carroll, RHP, Norfolk (AAA)
Ceiling: 45 (Middle Reliver) | Risk: Low | MLB ETA: 2018
Carroll is yet another prospect on this list who was added through a mid-season trade this year. The former Yankees farmhand was dealt to the O’s in the package of players returned for Zach Britton. Carroll already made his big league debut this year, so Orioles fans have had a chance to see him. He ranks on this list because he’s a readymade middle reliever that could factor into the team’s relief corps to start 2019.
#17 Ryan McKenna, OF, Bowie (AA)
Ceiling: 45 (4th Outfielder) | Risk: Moderate | MLB ETA: 2020
McKenna had a breakout year in 2018, tearing up the Carolina League before earning a mid-season promotion to Double-A Bowie. The speedy outfielder makes a lot of contact and plays a solid CF, able to also impact the game on the bases. McKenna might not quite have the bat to play everyday for a contending big league club, but he’s no less than a solid fourth outfielder and late-inning reserve.
#18 Dean Kremer, RHP, Bowie (AA)
Ceiling: 45 (Swingman) | Risk: Moderate | MLB ETA: 2019
Kremer posts much higher strikeout numbers than his raw stuff suggests because his delivery’s plus extension, and the spin it allows on the four-seamer. He’s the type of pitcher that TrackMan data appreciates, and his “invisiball” low-90s heater complements a mid-70s curveball well. Kremer could make me look bad for putting him so low on this list if he becomes a regular starter in the big leagues, but to me, he’s more of a longman and spot-starter for a contending team than a true #5 type.
#19 Jean Carlos Encarnacion, 3B, Delmarva (A)
Ceiling: 50 (Everyday Player) | Risk: Extreme | MLB ETA: 2021
Encarnacion was the most high risk/high reward prospect returned from Atlanta in the Gausman deal. He’s an athletic third baseman with the chance for plus raw power paired with serious approach and contact issues. The Orioles haven’t had many prospects like this, so Encarnacion’s upside and raw tools are a welcome addition to the system. He has the ingredients of an everyday corner player, but there’s exteme risk given how far his hit tool will have to develop to reach that ceiling.
#20 Evan Phillips, RHP, Norfolk (AAA)
Ceiling: 40 (6th Inning Reliever) | Risk: Low | MLB ETA: 2018
Phillips had recently made his big league debut with the Braves before being included in the package of players Baltimore returned for Kevin Gausman. He struggled in just over nine big league innings this year, though the potential to immediately contribte as a low-leverage middle reliever is here. Phillips will enter Spring Training with a chance to break with the Major League club next year.
#21 Matthias Dietz, RHP, Delmarva (A)
Ceiling: 50 (Setup Reliever) | Risk: Extreme | MLB ETA: 2020
Dietz was a league all-star in the South Atlantic League before earning a promotion to High A. Things went disastrously off the rails for the righthander in Frederick, however, and he moved to the bullpen to finish the season. I’ve always felt like his stuff projects better in relief at the ML level anyway, where a heavy mid-90s fastball plays up. Dietz could rank higher on this list next year if he shows the control problems are behind him.
#22 Jean Carmona, SS, Aberdeen (SS-A)
Ceiling: 45 (Utility Infielder) | Risk: High | MLB ETA: 2022
Carmona is a physical and athletic infielder who can play at SS, 2B, or 3B. He might outgrow short, but the switch-hitter has the batspeed to project on the offense if he slides over to third. Just 18-years-old, he posted underwhelming numbers with Aberdeen but is so young that the tools matter more than the stats.
#23 Brett Cumberland, C, Bowie (AA)
Ceiling: 45 (Backup Catcher) | Risk: High | MLB ETA: 2020
Cumberland went #76 overall in 2016, coming to the Orioles in the prospect package returned from Atlanta for Kevin Gausman. The switch-hitting backstop was a prospect mostly for his bat, which has stalled at the Double-A level. The ceiling is an offensive-minded reserve catcher.
#24 DJ Stewart, OF, Norfolk (AAA)
Ceiling: 45 (4th Outfielder) | Risk: High | MLB ETA: 2019
Stewart followed up an encouraging 2017 in Double-A with a mediocre season this year with Norfolk. A former first-round pick, he’s more likely a fourth outfielder or platoon starter against righties than an everyday guy on a corner. The Orioles have been good about maximizing the value of positional role players in recent years, and Stewart fits that mold.
#25 Alex Wells, LHP, Frederick (A+)
Ceiling: 40 (Long Reliever) | Risk: Moderate | MLB ETA: 2020
Wells has excellent pitchability and control, but the stuff is too short to realistically project as a true backend starter. His ability to fill the zone and change speeds will get him to the big leagues, profiling as a long reliever or mopup type. Double-A will be a good test for the finesse lefty, who is likely to begin 2019 in Bowie.
#26 Michael Baumann, RHP, Frederick (A+)
Ceiling: 45 (Swingman) | Risk: High | MLB ETA: 2020
Baumann’s stuff took a hit during his first full pro season. He was touching the mid-90s in April but the grind of pitching every fifth day took its toll, and the fastball was down in the 90-to-92 mph range by August. Lack of command within the zone could cause him to run into too many bats to finish as a true back-rotation starter. A more realistic ceiling is a spot-starter/swingman type, who could develop into a serviceable middle reliever if he ever transitions to the ‘pen.
#27 Martin Cervenka, C, Bowie (AA)
Ceiling: 40 (Bench Catcher) | Risk: Moderate | MLB ETA: 2019
Cervenka spent the first seven years of his pro career in the Indians organization, qualifying for Minor League Free Agency after 2017. He signed a Minor League deal with the Giants but was left off the Triple-A roster before the 2017 Rule V Draft, allowing the Orioles to select him in the Minor League Phase. He has a solid season with Bowie and could be a bench catching piece in the big leagues.
#28 Luis Gonzalez, LHP, Norfolk (AAA)
Ceiling: 40 (Situational Reliever) | Risk: Moderate | MLB ETA: 2019
The 26-year-old reliever was initially signed by the Phillies, who released him just before the 2013 season. He signed with the Orioles soon after and has climbed through the system slowly, going from prospect afterthought to a potential bullpen piece over the last few years. The southpaw touches 94-to-95 mph with his fastball, mixing a cutter/slider and changeup. He might be a 4A guy in other organizations, but the rebuilding Orioles can afford to try him out in a low-leverage relief role next year.
#29 Cadyn Grenier, SS, Delmarva (A)
Ceiling: 45 (Utility Infielder) | Risk: High | MLB ETA: 2021
The O’s selected Grenier with the 37th overall pick in this year’s draft, then challenged him with an assignment straight to Class A Delmarva. Grenier struggled in the South Atlantic League just a few weeks removed from winning a College World Series. A polished defender at shortstop, Grenier will need to prove he can hit enough to play everyday in the big leagues. Until then, he fits a glove-first utility profile more safely.
#30 Preston Palmeiro, 2B, Frederick (A+)
Ceiling: 40 (Bench Infielder) | Risk: Moderate | MLB ETA: 2020
Palmeiro hit in the middle of Frederick’s lineup all year, quietly puttig together a solid .251/.309/.401 line with 17 homers. He’s learning 2B to add versatility and handled same-side pitching much better than earlier in his career. The ceiling is a bench bat and offensive-minded reserve infielder, though Palmeiro could wind up a 4A guy if no one tool impacts the game enough for a full-time ML role.
A native of Washington, D.C., Adam will be periodically contributing scouting pieces on Orioles prospects for Baltimore Sports and Life. Currently, he’s the Assistant Director of Professional Evaluation at 2080 Baseball. Previously, Adam worked in the Baseball Operations departments of the Baltimore Orioles and Texas Rangers after serving as a Senior Prospect Writer for Baseball Prospectus. You can follow him on Twitter: @2080adam. Adam can be reached at amcinturff@2080baseball.com for all podcast and media requests.